How Prop 50 could slice and dice Republican strongholds in OC

Yorba Linda is a mostly residential city that straddles the 90 freeway in northeastern Orange County. Its most prominent institution is the Richard Nixon Presidential Library. The city was the birthplace of the former president.

Nearly half the population is registered Republican, according to the secretary of state. Another 24% are independent. President Donald Trump won the city by a bigger margin than any other city in Orange County with 59% of the vote.

“We really identify as a conservative community,” said Jon Fleischman, who's lived in Yorba Linda for about seven years. “For me, having a Republican in Congress means somebody else who believes that the government should be small, that we should rely on individual liberty and freedom.”

The quiet suburban community with a population of nearly 70,000 people has been represented by a Republican in Congress for at least 50 years, said Fleischman, who publishes a blog on California politics.

Proposition 50, the redistricting measure on the November ballot, would change that.

Under the Democratic redistricting measure, GOP strongholds across the state would be broken up — or consolidated — to create more Democratic congressional districts, angering Republicans who say Prop 50 is an unfair power grab.

The proposed political boundaries, drawn by Democrats, come in response to redistricting in Texas. That state recently redrew political lines to create more Republican districts at the behest of President Donald Trump.

It's all an effort by the two parties to gain control of the House of Representatives. For Democrats, control of the house would mean they would have the power to block some of President Trump’s agenda. For Republicans, it would mean continuing unabated the president’s plans.

Shrinking Republican Representation

Right now, Yorba Linda is represented by Republican Congressmember Young Kim.

Proposition 50 would split the city in half, leaving one half represented by Democrat Linda Sanchez and the other by Democrat Derek Tran.

“They’re drawing these tentacles into the different Republican communities and breaking them up so that there’s not one group of Republicans together to elect someone to Congress in the area anymore,” Fleischman said.

Of California’s 52 members of Congress, nine are Republican. If voters approve Proposition 50, that number would likely drop to four, giving Democrats an additional five seats, according to supporters.

“The remaining California Republican delegation can all commute to the capital in one car,” Fleischman quipped.

That means fewer than 8% of congressional representatives would be Republican. This is in a state where 25% of registered voters are Republican and 38% of the state voted for President Trump in the 2024 election.

Democratic supporters of Proposition 50 make no apologies.

“These are unusual times and unprecedented circumstances that require Proposition 50 that levels the playing field,” said Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party. “Its a temporary measure.”

“Its really part of a national fight,” he added, echoing Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is leading the fight for Prop 50.

Chair of the Orange County Republican Party Will O’Neill called the proposed lines in California “gross.”

O’Neill said it's not just that fewer Republicans would be represented by Republicans in Congress.

Under the measure, Orange County would be represented by eight different members of Congress instead of the current six, he said.

“We are going to have a much harder time here in Orange County getting our federal representatives to care as much about our issues in Orange County as we do right now,” O’Neill argued.

Two previously competitive districts in Orange County would become solidly Democratic.

“You’re much more likely to have hyper-partisan representatives that don’t represent their full community when you have hyper-partisan lines being drawn,” O’Neill said.

'A really modest approach'

The political boundaries proposed in Proposition 50 would replace boundaries drawn by an independent redistricting commission. California started using independent redistricting commissions to draw districts in 2010, taking that power away from elected officials who previously were creating their own districts. The whole idea was to prevent politicians from gerrymandering.

An independent commission would resume drawing the districts after the 2030 census.

The architect of Proposition 50’s boundaries, Democratic consultant Paul Mitchell, defends his maps.

“Its hard to make an argument that these maps are objectively somehow worse than the commission maps on the criteria that is the normal redistricting criteria,” he said.

For example, he said the proposed map is comparable to the current map when it comes to keeping cities and counties intact.

The current plan keeps 31 counties intact, while the proposed plan preserves the boundaries of 30 counties. The two plans include the same share of intact cities (88% in each, though the lists of split cities differ), according to the Public Policy Institute of California.

The current map also includes 16 majority-Latino districts, the same as the Prop 50 plan. Neither Black nor Asian Californians have a majority district in either plan.

“The approach taken is actually a really modest approach,” Mitchell said.

He noted 80% of the state's population will remain in their current congressional districts.

It seems it's only the GOP that suffers under Proposition 50.

“Its one of the biggest partisan gerrymanders in the country,” said Eric McGhee, policy director and senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California. “They’d be winning upwards of 90 percent of the seats with just about 60 percent of the vote,” referring to Democrats.

“It doesn’t seem to be about fairness,” he said.

McGee noted Democrats would likely end up with fewer House seats nationally if other states follow Texas and California. He said there are more Republican states ready to redistrict than Democratic ones.

Redistricting Commission members are conflicted

Members of the Independent Redistricting Commission are divided over Proposition 50.

“It doesn't bring me any joy to see these maps potentially going away,” said Sara Sadhwani, a professor of politics at Pomona College who served on the most recent commission. “That being said, I am not of the belief that California's democracy is on the line necessarily, as a state, but I am incredibly concerned about the state of democracy of the United States and the extreme use of executive power by President Trump.”

Jeanne Raya is the head of an insurance agency and lives in San Gabriel. She was the chair of California’s first independent redistricting commission.

“I’m very concerned that it’ll be too easy to declare another emergency four or five or six years down the road and find a reason to sideline the commission again, if not permanently,” she told LAist.

The fundraising so far marks one of the most expensive ballot measure efforts in California's history. Supporters have raised $88.6 million so far, while opponents have raised $40.1 million.

In Yorba Linda, Fleischman hopes Californians will follow the rule that two wrongs don’t make a right.

“That’s what we teach our kids. You see that person over there who is doing something bad. Don’t be like that person. But that’s exactly what’s going on here,” he said.

Looking ahead, he said if Proposition 50 does pass, he’ll invite his new Democratic representative for a tour of the Richard Nixon library.