Recall, redux? Democrats and Republicans bring back familiar arguments in Proposition 50 battle

California voters may be feeling some déjà vu as campaigns on both sides of a redistricting battle return to similar playbooks from past political clashes here — including the unsuccessful 2021 recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom.

With Proposition 50, Newsom and fellow Democrats are asking voters to toss out the congressional maps created by an independent redistricting commission just a few years ago, and approve new districts aimed at giving Democrats five more seats in Congress. The measure was placed before voters after President Donald Trump urged Texas and other Republican-led states to redraw their maps to give the GOP an advantage in the 2026 midterms.

Just like the recall, which Newsom handily defeated by nearly 25 points, the Yes on 50 campaign is making sure to tie their measure to the president, national Republicans and the MAGA movement. Trump’s California approval rating generally hovers around 30% in independent polls.

“The overall messaging is this a measure that fights back against Trump and his policies,” said Yes on 50 senior adviser Jim DeBoo, who was Newsom’s chief of staff during the recall. “There’s a lot of similarities to the recall … The difference is, Democrats in the recall begrudgingly voted no. They were like, why are we doing this?”

This time, DeBoo said, the intensity among supporters is real — and it’s not just Democrats, but also a significant number of independent voters who are motivated to come out and vote against Trump.

“This is like anger and excitement, where the recall is just anger,” he said, adding that critics of the president have been looking for a way to push back on this Washington. “Most people who have an aversion to the administration don’t have a lot of actionable things they can do. And this is an actionable thing.”

The California State Capitol in Sacramento on May 6, 2025.

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And people get what Proposition 50’s about, he said — something the Yes on 50 campaign wasn’t sure would be the case when they started this truncated campaign this summer. It’s a complicated argument, he noted: Democrats need to not only explain redistricting to voters, but also convince them that Proposition 50 won’t eliminate the popular Independent Restricting Commission. Instead, it would only table the commission’s work until after the 2030 census.

Then, the Yes side needed to convince the electorate of their why: The ballot measure is needed to help ensure Trump doesn’t remain in control of all branches of government.

“When we first started, we were like, ‘This is gonna be tough from a persuasion perspective to not only convince independent voters or no party preference voters, but Democrats, that this is the right thing to do.’ And usually, in ballot measures in particular, complexity kills, simplicity sells — and this wasn’t simple,” he said.

But people get it, he said, noting that the campaign’s polling shows awareness of the measure above 80%. The national attention it garnered, especially when Texas Democrats fled their state to delay the passage of new Republican maps, was helpful, DeBoo said.

But Jessica Millan Patterson, who is chairing the No Campaign and previously ran the state Republican Party, said the Democratic strategy of attacking Trump is tired.

“They don’t have a playbook. They have one play and they play that every single time,” she said.

Patterson said a large swath of the electorate remains undecided and a range of voters — including disaffected Democrats and independents — are open to the argument the No side is making.

“This is far less partisan, despite what the Yes side is trying to do,” she said. “We talk about these lines that have been drawn by Democrats in a back room with very little public participation and D.C. lobbyists and map drawers that no one can name, that is when people are like this is fishy, this is shady, and I don’t want anything to do with it.”

So while Democrats lean into Proposition 50 as an answer to Trump, Patterson said Republicans — just like in the 2021 recall campaign — are banking on Newsom’s unpopularity with more conservative voters. The message:

“Gavin Newsom is redrawing these districts as a partisan power grab, not because he’s trying to fix a problem because we didn’t have a problem to fix,” she said.

That’s a smart move, said GOP strategist Rob Stutzman, who is not involved in either campaign.

Republican Assembly member James Gallagher speaks during a press conference ahead of a meeting of the California State Assembly in Sacramento.

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“Newsom isn’t just unpopular with Republicans, he actually triggers them,” said Stutzman, president of Stutzman Public Affairs. “The Republican motivation on this is Newsom. As much as you’re getting Democrats to turn out to vote against Trump, the Republican turnout mechanism is Newsom.”

DeBoo didn’t disagree.

“Republicans are pretty dug in,” he said “They may not be Trump people, but they have their feelings about Democratic leadership.”

Stutzman said both sides’ tactics make sense. Democrats, who hold a 20 point registration advantage over Republicans in the state, are simply trying to turn out their base and capitalize on Trump’s highly negative reputation here. Republicans are trying to shore up their base and attract other voters who are turned off by Newsom. The governor’s approval rating in an August poll was 51% — up from 46% in the spring and largely driven by Democrats and independent voters excited by his aggressive posture against Trump.

Just 9% of GOP voters gave the governor high marks in that poll — compared to 77% of Democrats.

“They have a huge plurality of Democrat voters that they just want to turn out,” Stutzman said. “It’s what we call a base election.”

Democrats may have also benefited politically from something that didn’t happen: Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who campaigned for the independent redistricting commission when it was created more than a decade ago, has come out against Proposition 50 but not hit the campaign trail.

Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger at Town and Gown of USC.

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Stutzman said Schwarzenegger’s lukewarm involvement — he has spoken out against the measure on TV and at at least one event, but not worked with the No on 50 campaign — makes sense given he’s not a fan of the president.

“Schwarzenegger is a critic of Trump, so he’s not exactly gonna feed the Republican base or be the face that they necessarily want to see, even though they may agree with him on this,” said Stutzman, who worked for Schwarzenegger when he was governor.

But the No side has been able to use Schwarzenegger’s appearances in their advertising, which Stutzman said could still be an effective tool in attracting some centrist or independent voters.

Early ballot returns show equal shares of Democrats and Republicans have already cast their votes early — but with the Democrats’ numerical advantage, that amounts to nearly twice as many votes for redistricting so far.

Those who haven’t voted yet will surely be hearing more about Proposition 50 as Nov. 4 approaches. It’s already ranking as one of the most expensive ballot fights in state history — with nearly $150 million raised on both sides — and there are still several weeks left until voting ends.

While voters are deciding whether to approve new maps, it may feel more like they’re really being asked to choose between Newsom and Trump.