California Republicans gird for redistricting fight; some see 'extinction level event' if party loses

At the California Republican Party convention in Garden Grove over the weekend, the theme was, “Going on the Offense.”

The opponent was clear: Proposition 50 on the November ballot has galvanized an often fractious state GOP.

All political eyes are on California and Proposition 50, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting plan. Big money is already flowing into the fight and campaign mailers are flooding mailboxes over a measure that could determine which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives.

It could attract as much as $200 million total from both parties and their allies from around the country.

The measure, if passed by California voters, would redraw the state’s congressional district maps in a way that at least five Republicans would likely lose their seats to Democrats. Right now, the GOP holds nine of California’s 52 seats. Democrats hold the rest.

“To the extent that Republicans already are an endangered species in California, this would be like an extinction level event,” said Jon Fleischman, a former executive director of the California Republican Party and convention delegate from Orange County.

The national spotlight is on California after the Texas Legislature passed a redistricting plan that will likely result in five more Republicans getting elected to Congress from that state.

Newsom has said his last-minute effort — the special election was called only last month — is in direct response to Texas. Newsom, an especially vocal critic of President Trump, has pointed out it was the president who encouraged Texas to draw new political boundaries to favor the GOP.

Shawn Steel, a national Republican committee member from Seal Beach who attended the convention, said the fight over Proposition 50 has unified the state GOP.

“We’ve got people in the same room on this issue who hated each other for 20 years,” he said. “Those days are over, at least for the next 58 days.”

Conventioneers celebrate Trump

But for Proposition 50, there was a lot to celebrate at the convention, which was held at the Hyatt Regency Orange County and attended by more than 1,000 people. Many people said they were thrilled about President Donald Trump’s first six months in office.

“I wake up everyday happy and joyful that he’s still president,” said Johnnie Morgan, 74, a delegate from South L.A., citing Trump's policies on transgender people and deportations.

“He’s fearless and he stands for this country, and no matter what anybody throws at him, he stands strong,” said Bonnie Wallace, a delegate from Pasadena.

As usual, vendors sold all manner of Trump paraphernalia, including hats, sequined blouses and jewelry with the president’s name.

The hallways of the Hyatt were plastered with campaign signs for candidates ranging from governor to local party vice chair. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton are the two most prominent Republican candidates for governor. Both attended the convention.

Newsom is termed out of office next year.

But it was the topic of Proposition 50 that people came back to time and again.

“It's just pure cheating again,” said Wallace, 47, who teaches dance classes. “It’s election fraud.”

Help from Schwarzenegger

Under Proposition 50, voters would override the political map drawn by an independent citizen’s redistricting commission and replace it with one drawn by Democrats. The new lines would govern elections in 2026, 2028 and 2030. Another independent commission would be appointed to determine boundaries for the 2032 election.

Former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who co-authored the measure that created the state’s independent redistricting commission more than 15 years ago, is expected to campaign against Prop 50.

Fellow Republicans say his participation is considered key to winning over independent voters.

“I think he’s clearly the most recognized name against Prop. 50,” said Roxanne Hoge, chair of the L.A. County Republican Party.

Fighting Newsom

At a convention workshop designed to educate people about how to campaign against the measure, some party leaders urged people to avoid the complicated topic of redistricting and instead focus on California’s Democratic governor.

“Just ask if Governor Newsom and the legislative body in Sacramento deserve more power,” Assemblymember David Tangipa of Fresno told one convention workshop.

The attendees shouted, “No!”

Orange County Republican Party Chair Will O’Neill said he believes Newsom’s ascent to power is what Prop. 50 is all about.

“This is to feed the presidential ambition of a governor who has gotten way over his skis,” he said.

Steel, the national Republican committee member from Seal Beach, agreed.

“We want to embarrass Newsom so he doesn’t have a chance to be president in the future,” he said.

Plans to mobilize voters

Whether Prop. 50 passes or not will likely come down to which party is more successful at getting voters to the polls.

“It’s going to be a high- profile, high- dollar campaign,” Fleischman said. “These kinds of campaigns really have two aspects to them — it's voter education and voter turnout.”

Some said one way to convince people to vote no on the measure is to show them the maps.

O’Neill described the maps as a tangled web of lines that resemble elephants and spiders, noting how they sweep up Democrats to form new Democrat-majority districts.

Steel said the party needs to “awaken the base” in the way Trump did last year.

“This is a big deal. This is the future of our party,” he said.

But only about 25% of voters are registered Republican in California. So reaching out to independents will be key. That’s where Schwarzenegger comes in.

Independents represent 22% of voters. Democrats represent 45%.

Still, Republicans at the convention were optimistic.

“I think we have a good shot at having this not pass,” said Matthew Craffey of Los Angeles. “But it's going to be a fight.”