California Republicans caught between Trump loyalty and winning swing districts

Republican Leticia Castillo stunned political observers when she won her Riverside County Assembly seat in the state Legislature two years ago.

The Democratic candidate, Clarissa Cervantes, the sister of the outgoing assemblymember, was favored and had spent more than 10 times as much as her.

This year, Castillo thinks she can do it again.

“I’m accessible to my constituents and they like that,” Castillo said at an evening reception outside a San Diego resort. Republican strategists, legislators and advocates are meeting for the party’s annual convention in downtown San Diego, one month before mail ballots for the June primary appear in mailboxes.

California Republicans are optimistic Castillo and a handful of other GOP legislators can hold onto their seats — but only if they keep President Donald Trump at a distance. It’s emblematic of a tension between leaders who are focused on strategic campaigning and party conservatives’ unabashed embrace of Trump. GOP candidates have been careful not to align themselves too closely with the president, whose affiliation can activate California Democrats to vote against anything from a candidate to a ballot measure.

Inflation and America’s entry into another war have cratered the president’s popularity among voters nationally. And the California party is listening. Officials over the weekend repeatedly downplayed him and his influence in state politics. But between bedazzled sweaters featuring his name and cardboard cut-outs of him, delegates’ support for the president was on full display.

Trump remains deeply unpopular in California. But his support among hard-line conservatives activists has rarely, if ever, wavered since in the last decade. That remains true among California Republican activists, whose devotion has not waned despite Trump’s controversial decision to enter a war with Iran that has caused record-high gas prices.

“I love what he’s doing. I love all the s— he’s saying,” Los Angeles delegate Mary Boston said about Trump and the war in Iran. “The whole establishment — all the Democrats, all the judges — they just hate him because he’s trying to make a difference for you and me.”

Donald who?

However, GOP officials sought to minimize his role.

“I think people here are tired of California. They know that the federal government is doing nothing to harm or help California,” Riverside County sheriff and Republican candidate for governor Chad Bianco said in an interview. Trump last week endorsed his Republican rival Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, instead of Bianco. “For the last week, people haven’t cared what President Trump is doing,” he said of Trump’s endorsement.

Bianco and Hilton have been reticent to mention Trump. In a state where Democratic voters vastly outnumber Republicans, it’s an imperative.

State party Chair Corrin Rankin said she was surprised to see Trump “weigh in on anything in California,” and refused to comment directly about voters’ discontent with his policies.

Some party leaders are hoping Trump’s toxicity will just blow over come the June 2 primary.

“Just as quickly as the gas prices went up, I think that we’ve all seen in California how quickly gas prices can also come down,” state party Vice Chair John Park said. “Many of the problems that are on the front burner, the ones that people will instinctively tie to President Trump, will subside by then.”

At the convention, the divide between the party establishment and its rank in file was on display. Trump merchandise could be seen all across the convention — at vendor booths, on the walls and on people’s clothes. At some sessions, Trump’s footprint was large. A “Make California Great Again” session was spearheaded by Jo Reitkopp, from Orange County, who founded a group of the same name shortly after Trump was inaugurated in 2016.

Reitkopp and other party activists were advocating for a voter ID ballot initiative that would require voters to show proof of citizenship to vote. The ballot measure is modeled after a voting restriction bill Trump is pushing in Congress.

Running for the Legislature? Stay mum on Trump

Even before voters passed Proposition 50, the ballot measure targeting House Republicans, the California Republican Party was weak and had little relevance. Democrats continue to hold a commanding supermajority in Sacramento, where Republicans are fewer than a third of state lawmakers. No Republican has been elected to a statewide office since 2006.

Things briefly looked different in 2024 after voters shifted to the right in nearly every county as part of the backlash to President Joe Biden. Predominantly Latino and working-class voters in Imperial County backed Trump, the first time they had backed a Republican presidential candidate in decades. Republicans also flipped three seats in the Legislature, a first in 10 years.

Those trends quickly evaporated. Voters in Imperial County and across the state overwhelmingly approved Prop. 50, complicating the narrative that Democrats were losing Latinos in California.

Imperial County GOP Chair Sayrs Morris said candidates’ approach will be to keep mum on Trump because of voters’ frustration with the economy.

“We’re not going out there saying our candidates are MAGA candidates. We’re keeping it focused on them,” said Morris, a Trump supporter. “Right now things are tough. The economy’s not super great. And we’re at war.”

Coachella Republican Assemblymember Jeff Gonzalez will be a test case. He flipped his district two years ago, despite a registration advantage that favors Democrats by 12 percentage points. Among Gonzalez’s challengers are Indio city Councilmember Oscar Ortiz and former El Centro Mayor Tomás Oliva. So far, he’s outraised all of them with $630,000 in his campaign account at the end of last year.

Gonzalez’s campaign spokespeople did not return calls and emails seeking comment.

Republicans are also targeting Castillo’s Riverside Assembly seat and Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones’ San Diego district, where the GOP holds only a slight advantage as voters in north and eastern parts of San Diego County trend leftward. He terms out at the end of this year.

“It’s the one we’re all watching,” GOP activist Justin Schlaefil said.

The debate over who should succeed Jones, a moderate Republican, has been a tension point among Republicans in San Diego.

Jones and U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa have backed San Marcos City Councilmember Ed Musgrove. Meanwhile, Reform California, a multimillion-dollar political organization led by Republican Assemblymember Carl DeMaio, is supporting Kristie Bruce-Lane, a two-time unsuccessful Assembly candidate who is further to the right than Musgrove.

Moderate Republicans fear Lane is too conservative for what will be the most competitive district this year.

Neither candidate gained enough support for an endorsement at a February San Diego County GOP meeting after hours of heated debate.

“We’re spending a lot of money against each other just because of that,” said Schlaefil, a friend of Jones. “It is winnable, but it is very tight.”

Back in Riverside, Castillo has a much larger war chest than two years ago when she narrowly clinched her seat by a few hundred votes against Democratic City Councilmember Clarrissa Cervantes.

Cervantes was initially considered a shoo-in. But she was bogged down by two DUI convictions. Cervantes attributed her loss to poor Democratic turnout. This time, she hopes things will be different.

Castillo is keeping her focus on public safety and parental rights.

“I get people just want to continue to say, ‘Trump, Trump, Trump,” she said. “At the end of the day, we’re in California, and Trump doesn’t rule here.”