Californians love mail-in voting. That may have to change come November

Most California voters cast their ballots by mail. But there are currently attempts underway to limit how those ballots are handled and counted in the November election.

In March last year, President Trump issued an executive order which, among other things, aims to give the U.S. Postal Service the final say over who receives a mail-in ballot.

But on Thursday, that was blocked by Boston-based U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani, who said the move exceeded the President’s authority under the Constitution, which gives state legislatures and Congress the power to set rules for federal elections.

“The Constitution does not grant the President any specific powers over elections,” Talwani wrote in a 37-page opinion.

In response to the executive order, USPS had earlier released proposed rules which would require states to send names of eligible mail-in voters to USPS, who would add them to a centralized list.

Whether states would agree to share voter information with the federal government, which California has so far refused to do in other situations, is another matter.

Thursday's decision blocking the order is not final, however. The adminstration could appeal the ruling, or try to send the issue to the U.S. Supreme Court, which could hand down a decision before the November election.

A major ruling could end mail-in grace periods

Meanwhile, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling soon on a separate issue: grace periods for mail-in ballots.

Fourteen states, including California, count mail-in ballots that arrive after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked by then and show up within a certain window. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down a decision that could end that kind of grace period.

The case in question is Watson v. Republican National Committee, which centers on whether Mississippi’s five-day grace period for late-arriving ballots is constitutional under federal law. In California, that period is seven days.

Geoffrey Skelley,  chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ, told LAist the RNC’s argument centers on a federal law enacted in 1845 that set Election Day as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, and that’s why votes shouldn’t be accepted after it.

A decision on that is expected to come within the next month, according to Wren Orey, who directs the elections project at the Bipartisan Policy Center. The Washington D.C.-based think tank works with both sides of the political aisle to craft policy suggestions.

Orey told LAist it’s looking like the justices will side with the RNC and overturn Mississippi’s law. However, it’s not known how broad the ruling could be. The Purcell principle, a legal doctrine that discourages last-minute changes to election procedures, could also be invoked.

“ It’s possible that the Supreme Court rules that this specific statute is unconstitutional, but their judgment doesn’t go into effect until after the election,” they said.

Some critics say the Supreme Court has unevenly applied this principle, pointing to how a ruling affected Alabama’s primary when voters had already begun casting ballots.

The effort comes as Trump and his allies have scrutinized mail-in ballots for years, claiming without evidence that states with longer count times and universal mail-in voting are allowing widespread cheating. Research shows fraud rates remain extremely small.

The U.S. Postal Service may soon decide who to send mail-in ballots to.

(

Nathan Howard

/

Getty Images

)

How it could affect California

Just over 400,000 ballots arrived during California’s grace period in 2024 — that’s 2.5% of voter turnout. Orey said these usually come from areas that take more time for mail carriers to deliver, so it could disadvantage rural residents, for example. It’s unclear if there would be a carve out for service members and overseas voters under the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act, which get rejected at higher rates.

The Bipartisan Policy Center’s research shows about the same rate of late ballot rejections between states with a grace period and those without, Orey said, suggesting that voters adapt to their state’s deadline.

“What isn’t clear, though, is how long it takes for voters to adjust,” they said, adding that they’ve seen some evidence of rejections going up immediately after a grace period goes away.

Workers count Los Angeles County ballots in the City of Industry on June 3.

(

Kayla Bartkowski

/

Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

)

Skelley said a lot of voters would likely become aware and adjust in part because of how publicized the decision would be, but it wouldn’t solve everything.

“Now, does that mean some would be affected and might miss out on a chance to vote?” he said. “Yes, that’s perfectly plausible.”

California is also notoriously criticized for how long it takes to count ballots, even though that’s a feature, not a bug, of our election process. If the justices decide to end grace periods, don’t expect big changes to that.

That’s mostly because our slowness stems from the volume of mail-in ballots received on Election Day, Orey said. Those need to be verified, opened and flattened to be processed, which takes more time than if you voted in person.