California billionaires tax has slim lead in new poll

A slim majority of likely California voters are backing a proposed tax on billionaires, according to a new poll, but voters are also lining up behind two competing November ballot measures that could nullify the billionaire tax.

Voters will weigh in Nov. 3 on Proposition 40, which would impose a one-time, 5% wealth tax on billionaires who lived in California as of Jan. 1, 2026. The tax is estimated to raise up to $100 billion and would be used to offset deep federal healthcare cuts imposed last year by Congress.

According to the poll released late Tuesday by the Public Policy Institute of California, 52% of likely voters said they would vote yes on the tax, while 46% said they would vote no.

“Supporters of Proposition 40, the so-called billionaires tax initiative, have a lot of work to do,” said Mark Baldassare, the institute’s statewide survey director, noting the challenge of keeping support above 50% with what is only a “slim” lead.

A T-shirt with a campaign message is seen before the start of a rally led by U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, an Independent from Vermont, during the campaign kickoff for the California Billionaire Tax Act at The Wiltern in Los Angeles on Feb. 18, 2026.

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Patrick T. Fallon

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AFP via Getty Images

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But opponents of the tax, led by several billionaires, are also asking voters to weigh in on Propositions 41 and 42, which have provisions that could nullify the billionaire tax if they pass with more votes.

Proposition 41, which would make any new taxes subject to the state’s existing spending limit, is leading in the Public Policy Institute of California poll 51% to 44%.

Proposition 42 would prohibit taxes on financial assets such as stocks and other personal property other than real estate. It’s leading in the poll 54% to 43%.

If all three pass, but Proposition 41 or 42 gets more votes than Proposition 40 gets, the state will be prohibited from enforcing the billionaire tax.

“So the supporters [of Proposition 40] have the work to do of both keeping their support, which is now just above 50%, in the majority range, and also raising questions about Propositions 41 and 42 that may reduce support below what Proposition 40 is getting,” Baldassare said.

That task will likely be made even harder by the large amount of money being spent by billionaires against the proposed wealth tax: Opponents of the billionaire tax have already raised nearly $120 million to fight Proposition 40 and support Propositions 41 and 42.

The poll from the Public Policy Institute surveyed 1,103 likely voters from Sept. 4–10 and found an electorate that is pessimistic about the trajectory of both the state and the nation. Majorities of adults and likely voters told pollsters that price increases have caused financial hardship for their households, and just 27% of likely voters approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance.

The survey also found Democrat Xavier Becerra leading Republican Steve Hilton 60%-38% in the race for California governor.

“Affordability continues to be top of mind for Californians,” Baldassare said, “when considering their choice for governor: 65% of likely voters say that a candidate’s plans to address cost-of-living issues are very important to their vote.”

The poll also asked voters about the other 11 ballot measures on the November ballot.

It found strong support for Proposition 3, which would make existing higher tax rates permanent for individuals earning more than $371,000 a year, and for Proposition 37, which would create a new loan program for middle-income home buyers in the state.

Proposition 45, which is aimed at speeding up construction by expediting some environmental reviews, is narrowly leading 48% to 46%.

Likely voters are also backing Proposition 1, which would authorize $11 billion in state bonds for affordable housing, and Proposition 2, which would increase the state’s rainy-day fund.

But a voter ID measure, authored by Republicans in the state Legislature, is trailing in the poll, with 43% of likely voters backing Proposition 39 and 55% opposed.

A voter is given a sticker after dropping his ballot at City Hall in San Francisco on Oct. 30, 2025, ahead of the statewide special election.

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Beth LaBerge

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KQED

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The survey also shows several other measures trailing among likely voters, including Proposition 4, which would repeal a prohibition against public funding of candidate campaigns; Proposition 5, which would change the process for replacing a state elected official who is recalled by voters; and Proposition 43, which would make it harder for voters to approve local tax increases.

In all, California voters will weigh in on 14 ballot measures this fall, and the Public Policy Institute found voters “exhausted” by the responsibility: Nearly 80% of respondents said they are frustrated with the size of the ballot.

Baldassare said it’s the rare question that unites Democrats, Republicans and Independents.

“Every time we’ve asked this question of Californians, they tell us that, you know, there’s too many ballot measures that they have to deal with,” he said. “This is something that everybody agrees on.”