After Harris passes, who wants to be California’s next governor?

Between threats to the state from President Donald Trump, redistricting battles and the focus on congressional seats, Californians can be forgiven if the 2026 governor’s race isn’t exactly top of mind.

Last month, former Vice President Kamala Harris announced she would take a pass on running for governor, a decision that seemed to signal the official start of the race to succeed Gavin Newsom. The biggest beneficiary appeared to be Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, who had said she would run for another statewide office if her old friend Harris jumped in. Not to mention, she had just secured what appeared to be an endorsement from Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi.

But then Kounalakis announced she too would skip the race, and run for state treasurer instead, which elicited a collective yawn since polls showed she was largely unknown to most voters.

So what is the state of a race where more than a half-dozen Democrats and a couple of Republicans have said they’re running?

“It’s actually more of a low-profile, almost snoozer of a race than we have seen in quite a long time in California,” said veteran Democratic consultant Brian Brokaw, who worked on several Harris campaigns.

“Most Democratic voters haven’t even given a moment’s thought to the fact that we are going to be electing a new governor next year,” Brokaw said. Part of the reason? The governor is acting like anything but a lame duck.

California Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis on Political Breakdown on Feb. 12, 2025.

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After mixed results flirting with MAGA conservatives on his podcast, This is Gavin Newsom, the governor has found his footing as a national foil to Trump, more recently by pushing back against red states trying to redraw political districts to help Republicans. It’s fueling an uptick in Newsom’s approval rating, plus attracting national media attention for his all-but-certain 2028 presidential bid.

It’s also having something of a deep-freeze effect on the governor’s race, sucking up precious political oxygen at a time when few voters are focused on elections.

Wade Randlett, a prominent Democratic fundraiser in Silicon Valley, said the slow start to the gubernatorial race means potential donors can hold back to assess the current crop of candidates, waiting to see if anyone else interesting jumps in and focus on the fight for control of Congress.

“I think we’re looking at months and months of kicking the tires,” Randlett said, adding “right now, the time urgency of the potential big check for redistricting is ahead of the time urgency of who you’re gonna support for governor.”

With Harris and Kounalakis both out, the Democratic field still includes former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, former state Senate President Toni Atkins, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and others. Republicans include Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Trump delegate at the 2024 Republican National Convention, along with former Fox News host Steve Hilton.

Brokaw said the low profile and lack of a clear frontrunner “makes it more and more likely that names currently who aren’t even in the mix are going to give the race a look or perhaps a second look.”

One possibility: developer Rick Caruso, a former Republican turned Democrat who spent more than $100 million on his unsuccessful 2022 run for L.A. mayor before losing to Karen Bass. Caruso has a strong base in Southern California but is relatively unknown elsewhere. With Kounalakis out, there’s a lane for a pro-business Democrat with executive experience.

Californians will eventually weigh what kind of candidate they want at a time of extraordinary challenge. Do they want a fighter to take on Trump? A manager focused on the nuts and bolts of running the state? How important is electing a woman or person of color for the first time?

Rep. Katie Porter now sits in the frontrunner’s seat in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom.

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Jerod Harris

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California’s top-two primary system lets the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the November general election. With so many Democrats running, left-leaning voters could split their votes enough to allow a Republican to finish first or second, like Steve Garvey did against Adam Schiff in last year’s U.S. Senate race.

Republican consultant Hector Barajas, who is working for Hilton, said Harris’s decision not to run was a disappointment to Republicans, who had been eager to run against her.

“Had Harris remained in the race, it would have really nationalized this election for governor,” Barajas said. “You would have seen a lot more, quite a bit of interest coming in from D.C. You would see more interest coming from people across the country.”

Now, national attention will likely focus on congressional races and a possible November special election to redraw the district lines.

“With the lieutenant governor out of the race, I think it’s still going to kind of take another month to try to sort out all the different candidates,” Barajas said. “Once Labor Day hits, it is gonna be an absolute sprint from then over to the election.”

If there’s a frontrunner, it’s probably Porter, who has some statewide name recognition from her 2024 U.S. Senate run, where she finished third behind Schiff and Garvey. In that race, the cryptocurrency industry’s Fairshake PAC spent $10 million attacking Porter. This time around, the industry is taking a friendlier view of Porter, who has attracted tens of thousands of dollars in tech industry donations.

The next few months will show whether any of these candidates have the political stamina to break through the noise — and attract donors — or if California voters are content to let this one stay on the back burner a little longer.