Adam Schiff easily wins US Senate seat in deep-blue California

U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, a Burbank Democrat, cruised to victory tonight in California’s U.S. Senate race against Steve Garvey, a former L.A. Dodgers star seeking to become the first Republican elected statewide in 18 years.

Schiff won a six-year term to replace Sen. Laphonza Butler, who decided not to run herself after she was appointed following the death of Dianne Feinstein, who held the seat for more than 30 years. Schiff also defeated Garvey in a separate but simultaneous race to fill the remainder of Feinstein’s term, which expires in early January. That gives him a head start in seniority over other newly elected U.S. senators.

The AP called the race as soon as polls closed in California at 8 p.m.

How we got here

The race was practically decided after the March 5 primary, in which Schiff’s campaign spent tens of millions of dollars elevating Garvey and elbowing out fellow Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, who might have run a closer contest in heavily Democratic California.

More than $85 million had been spent on the Schiff-Garvey contest by Oct. 30, making it the ninth most expensive U.S. Senate race this general election, according to data from OpenSecrets, a Washington, D.C.-based campaign finance watchdog group.

The matchup all but guaranteed Schiff’s victory — Schiff has consistently led Garvey by a significant margin in overall fundraising and polling, 55% to 34% in a poll released Friday by the University of California-Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies and Los Angeles Times.

Schiff’s strategy, however, was met with staunch criticism from some progressives, who argued the move risked boosting Republican voter turnout in key congressional districts in November and represented a step back in diverse representation: For the first time in 30 years, California will be represented by two male U.S. senators: Schiff and Alex Padilla, when women are already underrepresented in the Senate, said Mindy Romero, founder and director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California.

“They are going to be in those positions probably for decades,” she said. “It means we are not going to have a woman senator in California for a very long time.”

But facing Garvey also freed Schiff up to campaign for other Democrats: Instead of pouring money into his own race, Schiff has been busy stumping for Vice President Kamala Harris and raising money ($7 million by early October) for other Democrats in swing Senate and House races in other states. He and Padilla campaigned over the weekend in toss-up congressional contests in the Central Valley.

Garvey, who largely ran a low-key campaign, focused heavily on fundraising while skipping Republican Party events. He outraised Schiff in the two most recent quarters while still having less money in the bank overall to spend, campaign reports show. Garvey also made a summer trip to Israel but mostly stayed in the state and appeared on local TV stations for interviews.

The two clashed over a wide range of issues from abortion to immigration throughout the election cycle. Schiff has tried to associate Garvey with former President Donald Trump and the “Make America Great Again” movement — an attempt to hurt Garvey’s chances among moderate voters while touting Schiff’s own record, since he led the first impeachment trial against Trump, strategists have said. 

But Garvey largely stayed away from Trump, so much so that Trump himself declined to endorse Garvey and said in September he knew little of the baseball legend. Earlier in his campaign, Garvey — who has voted for Trump twice — declined several times to answer whether he’d vote for Trump this election before committing to voting for the former president over President Joe Biden in July, before Biden dropped out of the race.

Garvey turned Schiff’s attack on Trump against him, arguing in their only one-on-one televised debate on Oct. 8 that Schiff’s focus on Trump would prohibit him from tackling issues that would truly affect Californians and that Schiff has done little to serve his constituents.

What to expect from Schiff

Although Schiff’s seniority over other first-term senators will give him more power, Schiff’s influence depends largely on whether Democrats keep their narrow majority (with the help of independents) or Republicans take control.

The role Schiff will play will also depend on who wins the presidential race, experts say.

“If the president is Trump, he’s going to be the Trump guardian — the guy on the walls trying to defend democracy,” said Bob Shrum, a former Democratic strategist and now director of the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future. “If it’s Harris, she’s going to set out an agenda and Democrats are generally going to rally to that agenda.”

Schiff will take office with relationships he has already built over the past two decades, and he aligns with most of his Democratic colleagues in Congress on most issues.

He has supported enacting a national right to abortion, advocated for an assault weapons ban and universal background checks on gun sales and championed expanding housing vouchers and tax credits to encourage the construction of affordable housing.

On immigration, Schiff said during the Oct. 8 debate that he would first support providing more personnel and better technologies to “control the border” while ensuring that the migrants are treated “as human beings.” Like Porter and Lee, Schiff criticized a policy under President Joe Biden’s administration that banned most migrants from seeking asylum if they illegally crossed the border. The policy came as the number of migrant encounters at the southern border spiked last year, although it has plummeted this year.

To lower inflation, Schiff has said Congress must address the problem of “scarcity” in various sectors by encouraging the production of renewable energy and expanding healthcare and childcare services, among others. He — along with other Democrats — also voted for the Biden-backed Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, which capped out-of-pocket insulin payments at $35 per month for those enrolled in Medicare.

But Schiff — a former member of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition — is widely considered more moderate than his primary opponents, Porter and Lee, due to his voting records and positions on certain issues. He has historically taken a more skeptical approach toward federal spending, and his past support for tough-on-crime policies drew criticism from some criminal justice advocates.

On the Gaza War, Schiff — who is Jewish — has maintained his “unequivocal support” for Israel and only called for a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas after Biden backed a similar call in March. The issue has sharply divided Democrats, with progressives calling for an unconditional ceasefire and an arms embargo against Israel.