Democrats nab 2 wins in tight SoCal races that could decide if the House goes red or blue

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As of Tuesday night, Republicans are just two seats away from snagging control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Here in Southern California, a few of our swing seats aren’t settled yet — and they could help tip the balance.

One was settled Tuesday when Republican incumbent Scott Baugh conceded to Dave Min in Orange County's District 47. And on Monday, Republican incumbent Mike Garcia conceded to George Whitesides in the closely watched race for District 27.

That leaves just four federal and one statewide races in California that so far have less than a 2% difference between first and second place and between “yes” and “no” votes for ballot measures.

Here’s a look at what’s driving our tightest races in the House.

A two-county race could go blue

In District 45, a key swing seat, Republican Rep. Michelle Steel’s lead shrunk again Tuesday evening to 50.4% over Democrat Derek Tran’s 49.6%. Steel’s win appeared solid in the early counts after Election Day, but Tran has been inching up consistently as votes drop.

This district straddles parts of southeast L.A. County and north O.C., with voters split 37.07% Democrat and 33.05% Republican. Unsurprisingly, L.A. votes have so far favored Tran, while a majority of O.C.’s have gone to Steel.

If the trajectory of votes over time continues on its current path, the district could flip blue. That would be a blow to House Republicans who have largely viewed it as a safe seat since it was created through redistricting after the 1980 census. (The only exception was Rep. Katie Porter’s term between 2019 and 2023.)

It could also spell political trouble for Steel as state senators criticized her recently after an LAist investigation found she awarded a pandemic meals contract to her campaign mail vendor during her time as an O.C. supervisor.

Orange County seat goes blue

Until Baugh's concession Tuesday night, it was a similar story further down south. 

Democrat Dave Min (50.9%) grew his small edge over Republican Scott Baugh (49.1%) again Tuesday night, after first taking the lead Friday. By Tuesday's tally, Min was ahead by nearly 6,000 votes.

A few hours after the latest tallies were in, Baugh acknowledged he'd been defeated.

"It has become clear that despite running a strong campaign, connecting with voters, and mobilizing an incredible volunteer effort — that effort is going to come up a little short," Baugh said on X. "I am grateful to an outstanding campaign team and the most dedicated supporters any candidate could."

This is for the seat where Porter chose not to run for reelection, instead trying to win as U.S. senator. The tight race is the unmistakable mark of a really purple district — which has left-leaning Irvine (the district’s largest city) and right-leaning Huntington Beach.

Voter registration is nearly split in two: 38.83% of registered voters are Democrats and 34.87% are Republicans.

A House seat flips

One of our most-watched races finished Monday night.

In District 27, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia conceded, saying he will ensure a smooth handoff to Democratic challenger George Whitesides, a former CEO of Virgin Galactic. Garcia thanked his constituents for allowing him to represent them during what he called a “tumultuous” and “critical” period.

Whitesides credited voters for fueling his campaign’s success. His win gives Democrats a much-needed leg up in their House efforts. It was a Democratic stronghold for more than 20 years before Garcia took office.

Garcia took the district in a special election in 2020, then won a full term by just 333 votes in a stunning conclusion that same year. The district mostly covers rural Antelope Valley and parts of the San Fernando Valley, with 30.23% of voters registered as Republican and 40.41% Democrat.

The exit came after Whitesides pulled ahead Saturday with a lead that grew to 6,983 votes by Monday evening.

As of the latest vote count, Garcia has 48.79% of the vote and Whitesides has 51.21%. 

These close races aren’t our first rodeo

We’ve experienced close calls with the not-so-supernatural at local and state levels. Margins can even be as small as a single-digit or double-digit gap.

While O.C. Supervisor-elect Janet Nguyen won her race for District 1 a few days ago, she had a very close call in one of her previous campaigns for the seat. She became a supervisor in 2007 after a recount confirmed a margin of just three votes.

Long Beach voters got a recount over Measure A in 2020, which passed by just 16 votes. Then, of course, there was Garcia’s 333-vote race win.

Close races can also pop up during the primary. This year, a congressional race in Silicon Valley faced a tie for second and a recount, which resulted in a single-second place candidate for the general election.

Could recounts happen?

Recounts are always possible in theory.

Keep in mind, a gap of a couple thousand votes may seem small but that’s typical in certain city elections. That kind of margin can be much tighter for federal district races with hundreds of thousands of voters.

Overall, it’s quite rare for a recount to make a dramatic difference, but that doesn’t stop candidates or voters from checking in.

There’s no hard-and-fast rule for when, but a couple of close races could fall into the usual recount territory if things are very close.

Unlike other states, California doesn’t have an automatic recount threshold.

State election law allows any voter to request a recount for any contest as long as they pay for it (which can wildly range from around $10,000 to upwards of $100,000). For most races, this has to be done within five days after the election is officially certified (that’s by Dec. 5). For statewide or cross-county elections, that request can only be done within five days after Dec. 6.

California law also allows the governor to order a state-funded recount for any statewide office or ballot measure if the difference is less than 1,000 votes.