Whitman, Poizner hope to win over GOP faithful

The two candidates for the GOP nomination for California governor spent a weekend of intense campaigning before Tuesday's primary election. The race is the most expensive primary campaign ever, as Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner seek to win over the GOP faithful.

Inside the Boys and Girls Club in Simi Valley, Steve Poizner spoke to about 100 Republicans on a recent stop. He was flanked by two big screens with the words “no amnesty, stop illegal immigration.”

"I’m going to stop the flow of illegals coming into California," he said.

The line drew huge cheers.

It’s a seemingly impossible promise, but he hopes it will convince staunchly conservative Republicans who always vote in primaries to support him over Meg Whitman. Even if immigration only recently became a big issue for Poizner, he’s hammered Whitman for her opposition to Arizona’s new immigration law.

It’s a Hail Mary pass for a candidate who’s down double digits in the polls.

Of course, there’s more to the Silicon Valley executive turned state insurance commissioner. Poizner, 53, says he has a plan to address California’s biggest problem – its budget deficit:

“I want to reduce taxes so that we can become more competitive again. That’s why I’m proposing a 10 percent cut in sales taxes, income taxes and a 50 percent cut in the capital gains taxes.”

Poizner, like Republicans before him, argues that lower taxes will help businesses and increase employment – and that more people working means more tax revenue.

Not everyone agrees with Poizner's assumptions, including the woman who may know most about California's budget.

Jean Ross of the nonpartisan California Budget Project says "all of the best economic modeling" suggests Poizner's plan would expand the budget deficit by up to $10 billion, and would shrink the tax base by forcing state government to lay off more workers.

Poizner’s also promised he’d cut state spending by 10 percent.

“What 10 percent? Is it education? Is it health care? Is it public safety? Ask him to add it up," Ross says. He hasn’t added it up.

Neither has Meg Whitman.

While the former head of eBay argues for more targeted tax cuts, she’s also said she’d dramatically shrink a state government already considering whether to eliminate its primary safety net for the most vulnerable Californians.

“I am committed to reducing the state workforce by 40,000 workers – back down to the 2004-2005 levels. And I promise you I will not relent until we get this government right-sized and in its proper place," says Whitman.

That talk is red meat for many Republicans.

Ross of the Budget Project monitors the state workforce.

She agrees it has grown faster than the population, but mostly because of the explosion in state prison employees. Take them out and California’s government workforce has diminished, relative to the population.

“California is one of the leanest in the country consistently. We are always 48th, 49th or 50th if you look at the number of state workers compared to our population.”

It should be noted that Ross takes no position in the GOP governor’s race.

The candidates' economic plans have hardly captured voters' attention. They've been inundated with attack ads from both sides.

In an unprecedented move, Whitman went on the air last year and built an astounding 50-point lead in the polls.

Poizner, saying he wanted to conserve his resources, only began big advertising last month. Believing that its candidate would have a better chance against Whitman, the Democratic Party also ran attack ads against Whitman’s association with Goldman Sachs, the investment bank facing federal fraud charges.

Political analyst Alan Hoffenblum says that created a window for Poizner.

“I think Poizner had a chance when he started the negative advertising and the undecided vote shot up very heavily," Hoffenblum said.

But Hoffenblum argues that Poizner’s had a hard time making a case to voters – even though he’s spent more than $23 million on his campaign. That would be a big story, if the billionaire Whitman hadn’t spent more than $60 million of her own seeking to convince voters that a first timer who’s hardly ever voted is the best potential leader for the state.

“She’s spent more money than anybody ever had in the history of California. But I think she has spent it well – getting out early, defining herself," he said.

Whitman’s lead has narrowed in the final weeks of the campaign, but she maintains a double-digit lead over Poizner.

Hoffman says that whoever comes out on top, the highly negative campaign may have damaged the GOP nominee’s image for what promises to be a tough fight against the Democrats’ likely nominee, Jerry Brown.