Truth matters. Community matters. Your support makes both possible. LAist is one of the few places where news remains independent and free from political and corporate influence. Stand up for truth and for LAist. Make your year-end tax-deductible gift now.
This archival content was originally written for and published on KPCC.org. Keep in mind that links and images may no longer work — and references may be outdated.
Does the new La Niña forecast mean a dry winter for California?
Sea surface temperature in July 2016 compared to the 1981-2010 average. Cooler-than-average waters are present in the central tropical Pacific. NOAA Climate.gov map, based on GEO-Polar data.
(
Courtesy of NOAA's Climate.gov
)
Listen
0:53
Does the new La Niña forecast mean a dry winter for California?
According to a new forecast from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, it's likely that the La Niña weather pattern will show up this winter.
The likelihood that it will show up this winter is the same as last month: a 55 to 60 percent probability. That's a downgrade from June, when it was 75 percent.
While El Niño is associated with warmer waters in the equatorial Pacific and warm, wet winters in Southern California, La Niña can be tied to cooling waters, and is better known for keeping things drier in the southern part of the state.
But if the past year has proven anything, it's that nothing's for certain. The powerful El Niño was supposed to drench all of California. In the end, Northern California's drought was eased slightly, but southern California was left dry.
There is a presumption "that if we have La Niña that somehow that’s going to make the drought worse and it’s not entirely obvious that that’s actually the case," said Stanford climate scientist Daniel Swain.
Swain explained that it appears that La Niña could be fairly weak, opening up the possibility for normal rainfall in Southern California. But then again, the past few winters the region's rainfall has been lower than average even without La Niña around.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center will update its La Niña forecast next month.
You come to LAist because you want independent reporting and trustworthy local information. Our newsroom doesn’t answer to shareholders looking to turn a profit. Instead, we answer to you and our connected community. We are free to tell the full truth, to hold power to account without fear or favor, and to follow facts wherever they lead. Our only loyalty is to our audiences and our mission: to inform, engage, and strengthen our community.
Right now, LAist has lost $1.7M in annual funding due to Congress clawing back money already approved. The support we receive before year-end will determine how fully our newsroom can continue informing, serving, and strengthening Southern California.
If this story helped you today, please become a monthly member today to help sustain this mission. It just takes 1 minute to donate below.
Your tax-deductible donation keeps LAist independent and accessible to everyone.
Right now, LAist has lost $1.7M in annual funding due to Congress clawing back money already approved. The support we receive before year-end will determine how fully our newsroom can continue informing, serving, and strengthening Southern California.
If this story helped you today, please become a monthly member today to help sustain this mission. It just takes 1 minute to donate below.
Your tax-deductible donation keeps LAist independent and accessible to everyone.
Senior Vice President News, Editor in Chief
