How Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs could hurt California almond farmers

By Camille von Kaenel | Politico

Published Apr 7, 2025 5:00 AM

A man with his back to the camera is walking on brown dirt. Almond trees with green leaves are on both sides of the man. He's wearing a light colored hat, blue jacket and khaki pants.

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Topline:

Looming retaliatory tariffs could hit California farmers hard, with a cost ranging from hundreds of millions of dollars to the billions, according to one University of California, Davis study — potentially surpassing the cost of California's last big drought in 2021.

Why it matters: California’s agricultural industry, the largest in the nation, has lobbied Congress and the White House to avoid harm from tariffs, just like other business groups. But it’s also treading carefully to not appear ungrateful for the White House's promises to “maximize” water deliveries.

What’s up with almonds? The Golden State produces 80% of the world’s supply and exports most of the almonds it grows. That makes almonds California's most valuable food export, making up roughly 20% of the state's $23.6 billion in agricultural sales abroad (followed by dairy products, pistachios, wine and walnuts) and 2.5% of California’s overall exports. During Trump’s first term, China, the top destination of California almonds at the time, imposed a 55% retaliatory tariff that cost the state's industry hundreds of millions of dollars.

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What are growers asking for: The California Almond Alliance told Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in a March letter that retaliatory tariffs would hurt American profits and cede more market share to competitors, like Australia. Its main ask: a smooth government bailout if retaliatory tariffs can’t be avoided.

What else to keep in mind: California’s nut growers are just finishing up selling last year’s almonds at a good price, after rebounding from a market glut. But that may be only a short reprieve: they’re also anticipating a bumper crop this year.

For more, read the full story in POLITICO’s California Climate newsletter.

This story is published in partnership with POLITICO.