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This El Niño Could Rival Some Of The Worst On Record
El Niño can impact weather patterns, sometimes leading to wetter conditions here in Southern California.
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Courtesy NOAA
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El Niño is all but certain to stick around through the winter of 2024 and there’s a 1 in 5 chance that it could rival some of the strongest on record, according to a forecast released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
About the conditions
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Courtesy NOAA
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El Niño is indicated in part by warmer-than-average waters along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The subsurface water measured this June registered as the third warmest for that month on record. Those warm waters will help strengthen El Niño conditions in the coming months.
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The climate pattern generally peaks between November and January, which is when we tend to see the most pronounced impacts here.
The current forecast says this year's El Niño is expected to be moderate to strong, though there is a small chance of a record-setting showing.
El Niño vs. La Niña
The climate patterns known as El Niño and La Niña can have substantial impacts on the weather in California. They tend to develop some time around March, with one or the other coming along every three to five years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
What's the difference between them?
Here are the basics:
El Niño
- Tends to last 9-12 months.
- Occurs when trade winds weaken, and waters in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific warm.
- Can result in wetter weather in Southern California and drier weather further north.
La Niña
- Can last 1-3 years.
- Occurs when strong trade winds build, and waters in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific cool.
- Can result in drier weather in SoCal and wetter weather further north.
What this means for SoCal
There are no guaranteed weather outcomes, but the climate pattern is often associated with wetter conditions in central and southern California, and warmer conditions from Oregon.
Around the world
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Courtesy NOAA
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El Niño is often associated with hotter-than-average global temperatures, though it’s important to remember that climate change is driving long term warming trends.
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