After the fires, can it be cheaper to rebuild without gas?

Homeowners rebuilding after the fires could save time and thousands of dollars by going all-electric, UC Berkeley researchers have found.

A new report from the university’s Center for Law, Energy and the Environment finds that people who lost their homes in the fires could save up to $9,000 when choosing all-electric construction.

“An all-electric rebuild is in all likelihood less expensive and faster than a hybrid rebuild,” said Ken Alex, co-author of the report and director of Project Climate at UC Berkeley's Center for Law, Energy and the Environment. “It has public health and safety benefits, and the supply chain issues, which I think everybody is concerned about, are no worse for an all-electric rebuild than they would be for a hybrid rebuild.”

To come to this conclusion, the researchers analyzed existing research on costs of electric construction and appliances, as well as interviewed experts including at SoCalGas, the L.A. Department of Water and Power, and electric construction experts.

Why could it be cheaper and faster?

The logic is relatively simple.

“If you build back hybrid, you actually have to build two systems — you have to rebuild whatever is damaged from the gas system and the electric system,” Alex said. “If you build back all-electric, you actually only have to build back one of those systems.”

On top of that, Alex says connecting gas to homes, schools or businesses often requires more time, permits and safety checks because methane gas is explosive and can leak dangerous chemicals.

A bar graph showing cost estimates of new construction that's all-electric versus gas and electric.

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Courtesy UC Berkeley Center for Law, Energy and the Environment

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But there’s a caveat: the report found that savings could be significantly less than $9,000 in Altadena and the Palisades because much of the gas infrastructure doesn't need to be rebuilt — it's underground and was undamaged by the fires.

Other savings come with appliances that are more efficient and safer to use, helping to cut electricity bills. Installing a highly efficient heat pump, for example, can make it so that homeowners don’t need air conditioning or a gas furnace or boiler.

Open questions

Alex cautioned that the report can’t predict exact savings for individual homeowners.

Factors outside homeowners’ control are also at play.

California’s electricity rates are being pushed higher and higher — in no small part due to hardening the electric grid against wildfires, including putting power lines underground.

And President Donald Trump’s tariffs are likely to increase the cost of construction materials overall. The administration’s tariffs on China, where needed electric components come from, are likely to raise costs.

“Much of the electrical equipment required comes from China,” Alex said. “Somewhat less of it comes from China on the natural gas side, so that's something of a complication.”

And while California and local utilities such as LADWP and Southern California Edison have incentives to encourage electrification, federal rebates and tax incentives put in place by the Biden administration to help Americans remove gas from their homes and save on electricity bills, are being targeted by the Trump administration.

What’s next?

The report adds to an ongoing policy conversation on how to rebuild.

In February, Los Angeles County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath and UCLA Chancellor Julio Frenk launched an independent commission of experts to help inform policies that will make it easier, faster and more affordable to rebuild safer, cleaner homes.

“Many of these homes in Altadena and the Palisades and other neighborhoods were built before 1978, before we had our first state energy code, before we banned lead paint, things that now are common sense,” said Matt Petersen, president of the L.A. Cleantech Incubator and chair of the new commission. “ So how do we make sure we rebuild better so communities are more resilient in the long run?”

The commission recently released their initial policy recommendations, which include incentivizing all-electric rebuilds.

In March, L.A. Mayor Karen Bass issued an executive order to speed up permitting for all-electric and fire-resistant construction. She had initially waived the city’s 2022 requirement for new construction to be all electric.

Advocates and fire survivors have called for all-electric rebuilding.

In Altadena, L.A. County is taking a different permitting approach. Their goal is to get all “like-for-like” rebuilds permitted within 30 days. That type of rebuild is more about the structure than what’s in it, so the 30-day goal includes homeowners who may decide to go with all-electric hookups, or solar and battery storage.

“We don’t want to pick winners and losers. We don’t want to say if you pick this we’ll give you a fast lane,” said Anish Saraiya, director of Altadena recovery for county Supervisor Kathryn Barger. “We want to make sure everyone is able to rebuild.”

The big picture

Natural gas is primarily composed of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that’s heating up the planet. Natural gas in buildings is responsible for about 40% of the city of L.A.'s planet-heating pollution.

The world’s top scientists agree that the world needs to get off gas and other fossil fuels that are the single-largest contributor to the rapid climate change we’re already experiencing.

At the same time, research is increasingly showing that appliances such as gas stoves worsen indoor air quality and are prone to leaking carcinogenic fumes. Induction stoves, on the other hand, cook via electromagnetic waves and don’t emit such pollution.

Experts say the recent fires — made worse by human-caused climate change — provide an opportunity to speed up the electrification effort, while avoiding costly retrofits down the line.

Go deeper

• The LA fires burned a lot of lithium-ion batteries. What does that say about a clean energy future?
• Utilities are planning to bury power lines after the LA fires. Should they?
• Can the power grid keep up with worsening heat and fewer fossil fuels?