Here's What's Been Behind Recent Movie Box Office Trends

Whether you're part of the entertainment industry or not, you might understand that business, let's just say, hasn't been great. It's not as though creativity is gone or viewers are completely disinterested.

This year alone, Dune: Part 2 grossed more than $700 million worldwide and close to $300 domestically, yet we also just saw the worst box office Memorial Day weekend in over 40 years (adjusted to inflation).

So what gives? Is the sky falling for the movie biz, so to speak? Not necessarily. On LAist 89.3’s public affairs program AirTalk, Larry Mantle spoke to Deadline business editor Dade Hayes, who helped contextualize what's behind this and why there could be signs of hope.

Rescheduled theatrical releases

Recent strikes in Hollywood put film distributors in a weird position, lacking the ability to finish and promote many films. This resulted in films like Dune: Part 2 and Challengers moving to less-coveted parts of the theatrical calendar, with studios jumping to promote them as soon as possible.

It also meant that a number of films slated for summer release had to be rescheduled.

“A couple of really big movies — Captain America and Mission Impossible — had to move out of 2024," Hayes said. "So those are two biggies. Deadpool & Wolverine also moved into July. It was going to kickstart the summer in May. So those are all important to note.”

Streaming money entering the equation

Although the streaming wars are hitting a major turning point, there's a lot of interest in getting more original films onto streamers. Major studios now expect that their first-time watches will come from the home and not a theater, and to retain subscribers, they've had to adapt.

Similar to the broadcast television model, many streamers are selling ad space in hopes of churning more of a profit. The financial strategy really shined through during recent studio upfronts, with companies showing advertisers the projects they’ll be releasing in the coming months in hopes of striking advertisement deals.

“Traditionally [upfronts] was when you would see the new sitcom that was going to be on CBS at 8:30 on Tuesdays and the cast would wave … all done for the benefit of advertisers,” Hayes said. “It was fascinating to see movies really carrying the charge for a lot of these streaming services, as opposed to television.”

Signs of hope for the theatrical experience

There’s still hope this summer season will turn around. For starters, this year has shown that premium formats are becoming quite the range for American moviegoers, with IMAX and novelties like 4DX becoming popular choices.

Although spectators considered its roughly $59 million opening weekend a disappointment, Furiosa could’ve done much worse if moviegoers didn’t consider it as much of a spectacle. The film made more than $9 million just off of IMAX screens alone, which does show that many moviegoers will continue to show up to films marketed as cultural events.

The international success of Kung-Fu Panda 4, making nearly $540 million worldwide, bodes well for other animated films.

“In the coming weeks, we're going to have Inside Out 2, a big Pixar movie from Disney, and Despicable Me from Universal. Those are both tracking well. If they deliver … I think that could be an encouraging sign,” Hayes said.

Listen to the conversation