Trump's tariffs are now fully in effect. Are prices rising? Here's what we know

It's the most common question asked about tariffs: When will prices start going up?

For months, shoppers heard from manufacturers and retailers that President Donald Trump's barrage of new tariffs on virtually all imports would cost them dearly. But that hasn't happened, and the full blow has yet to land.

Here's what's going on.

The biggest tariffs keep getting pushed back

Back in April, Trump imposed new tariffs on nearly everything the U.S. imports, with Chinese goods facing a levy as high as 145%. The stock market plummeted on the news, and Trump put the plan on a 90-day pause. And when the 90th day came in July, he extended the pause again until this Friday, Aug. 1.

In the meantime, tariffs have been set at 30% for Chinese imports and at least 10% for essentially the rest of the world, while the Trump administration tries to negotiate individual trade deals with every country. On Sunday, Trump shook hands with the president of the European Commission after agreeing to terms for a new deal. Talks continue between the U.S. and China today.

Companies stockpiled goods to avoid paying more

Given Trump's longtime campaign in favor of tariffs, some companies began stockpiling goods as early as last winter — hoping to avoid new import taxes for a while.

Best Buy rushed electronics from Asia. American Fireworks Company in Hudson, Ohio, stocked up on fireworks for the Fourth of July, almost all of which are made in China. Pet-gear seller Barton O'Brien from Kent Island, Md., borrowed money to get as many harnesses, collars and other supplies from China as he could store.

"We had dog life jackets in the bathroom," O'Brien, whose company BAYDOG sells at hundreds of stores, told NPR in May. "Our warehouse was bursting. We had to rent a container and put it out back."

In fact, so many importers rushed their shipments that wintertime ports looked more like peak season — as if another Black Friday and Christmas were on deck — than the typical post-holiday lull.

Barton O'Brien, shown with his dog Walter, runs the BAYDOG company, which sells harnesses, life-jackets and other pet supplies. He imports products from China, India and Vietnam, and double-digit tariffs have been challenging for his business.

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"A lot of the things that consumers have bought so far is from that first surge," said Zac Rogers, supply chain management expert at Colorado State University who tracks shipping and warehousing data. "All that stuff came in pre-tariffs, which is one of the reasons why we haven't had the really high costs yet."

Importers are holding back shipments

Importers were shocked by Trump's April announcement adding steep tariffs not only on China — for which they'd prepared — but also Vietnam, Mexico and other major trading partners.

Trump has argued that foreign nations would pay his tariffs, but in practice it's American importers who suddenly faced new charges at customs. Many of them responded by canceling shipments or holding them abroad until the tariff plan becomes clear. And that means those costlier imports are simply not here yet.

"Importers are afraid," said Patrick Allen, an importer of French wine who's based in Columbus, Ohio. "They don't know when the other shoe is going to drop."

His customers are "sitting on their hands," Allen said, instead of placing their usual orders for the fall and winter holidays. Pet-supplies retailer O'Brien canceled his order of doggie sweaters from India. Hair barrette seller Rozalynn Goodwin from Columbia, S.C., halted her shipments from China.

Many companies are eating new costs

Suppliers and retailers who are paying higher tariffs — the current 10% for most imports or 30% for Chinese ones — are hesitant to pass on the full cost to inflation-weary shoppers.

"I think we raised [prices] about 10% and absorbed the rest," said Bobby Djavaheri, whose Los Angeles-based company Yedi Houseware imports air fryers and waffle irons from China. "It's simply impossible to pass on all of it because folks aren't going to buy the product."

Major carmakers are mostly absorbing new tariffs as a hit to profits. General Motors last week reported tariffs cost the company about $1.1 billion in the latest quarter. Stellantis — whose brands include Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge and Ram — says it paid more than $300 million in tariffs and built fewer vehicles overall to avoid paying even more.

Industry data shows car prices this summer increased less than usual.

Tariff delays mean price delays — not necessarily price breaks

Trump's 90-day summer pause gave importers a new window to stockpile at a predictable, lower tariff rate. In fact, the second delay to Aug. 1 let many stores shore up goods for the holiday season to avoid particularly painful price hikes during the key shopping period.

Supply-chain professor Rogers believes this was the Trump administration's idea, as retailers needed more time to get holiday inventory at lower tariffs.

"It reminded me a lot of when I give a homework assignment that's supposed to be due at the end of class," he said, "and there's five minutes left, and no one's done, and I'm like, 'Okay, you guys can take it home.' That's sort of what happened with the tariffs and extending the deadlines."

A worker carries a shipment on a forklift at the Phantom Fireworks warehouse in Warren, Ohio.

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But of course, not everything needed for the holiday season will arrive in the U.S. before August. Plus, Rogers says the cost of warehouse storage is also rising. In June, his data showed demand for storage space outpaced supply for the first time since the supply-chain crunch of 2022.

Retailers slow-roll price hikes and hope tariffs blow over

And that means higher prices are still expected, even if slower or lower than originally feared.

In June, inflation rose slightly, by 2.7% from a year ago, with prices increasing a tad more in categories especially affected by tariffs: clothes, appliances and toys.

Toymaker Hasbro on Wednesday said it now expected tariffs to bite later in the year, and likely with less damage than originally feared, thanks to stockpiles and delays. Finance chief Gina Goetter described tariff-related expenses so far as "minimal," offset by cost-cutting, budget-reshuffling, shifting suppliers and "targeted" price increases.

Similarly, overall retail pricing through June was "largely stable, with limited impact from tariffs," according to data firm Circana. But if Trump makes good on his promise of steeper tariffs in August, Circana warns of impending impact on heavily imported products, including shrimp, tilapia, coffee, spices, cocoa, bananas, berries and canola oil.

Many business owners hope Trump's original plans — for Chinese tariffs as high as 145%, for example – never come to pass.

"That would have put people out of business in a hurry, quite honestly," said Danny Reynolds, who runs Stephenson's clothing boutique in Elkhart, Ind. "So I feel like that was always just kind of a threat that was dangled out there by the president to begin negotiations."

He's counting on tariffs to stay as they are now, around 30% on Chinese goods, with costs getting divvied up among manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers and shoppers.

"If you take 30% and cut that into five or six," Reynolds said, "now suddenly it's not quite as dramatic."
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