A San Francisco political showdown: Who will take Pelosi’s seat?

With Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi not running for reelection, San Francisco is about to experience its most spirited congressional race since 1987, when Pelosi beat 13 candidates to fill the seat left open by the death of Rep. Sala Burton.

The 85-year-old Democrat leaves behind a historic record of accomplishment — from the power she achieved as a caucus leader and Speaker to delivering significant legislative victories, including passage of the Affordable Care Act, and her unparalleled ability to criticize President Donald Trump.

“Nancy Pelosi was the most effective speaker of the modern era, a legendary political thinker and strategist,” said Brian Hanlon, co-founder and CEO of California YIMBY, a pro-housing group. “And San Francisco punches way above its weight in terms of both national and state politics. So, who is San Francisco going to put in this seat?”

So far, three very different candidates have emerged as the top contenders to represent Pelosi’s district, which encompasses most of the city, except a southern slice that includes the Excelsior, Visitacion Valley and Oceanview neighborhoods.

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The leading candidates

Connie Chan

San Francisco supervisor, District 1

The 47-year-old Democrat represents the northern section of San Francisco, including the Richmond District. Chan, who was born in Hong Kong and came to the U.S. as a teenager, is leaning into her biography as the basis of her candidacy.

“As a first-generation immigrant, I have the lived experience, understanding the challenges that immigrant community faces, and most definitely during this time, when we see the Trump administration sending ICE agents to our streets and also in courtroom, firing our immigration court judges so that they can detain our immigrants illegally,” Chan told KQED. “That is, first and foremost, one of our top priorities.”

Now in her second term on the Board of Supervisors, Chan, who once worked as an aide to former Supervisor Aaron Peskin, opposed Mayor Daniel Lurie’s Family Zoning Plan, which allows denser housing in neighborhoods like the Richmond, where single-family homes dominate. She also opposed a voter-approved ballot measure to close part of the Great Highway and create a public park, and supports sending the issue back to voters.

Scott Wiener

State senator 

Now in his eighth year in Sacramento, Wiener has championed landmark legislation to facilitate — even mandate — more housing construction in California, a position that has won him both support and criticism.

By any standard, Wiener, 55, is a prolific legislator. This year alone, 12 of his bills were passed and signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom. In an evaluation of state lawmakers across the country, Wiener was ranked as the most effective member of the California State Senate by the nonpartisan Center for Effective Lawmaking, a project of the University of Virginia and Vanderbilt University.

Wiener, who is openly gay, said it is “definitely time” for the city’s LGBTQ+ community to elect one of its own to Congress. He would be the first openly gay representative from San Francisco in the House.

Saikat Chakrabarti

Software engineer and political activist

Chakrabarti, 39, jumped into the race before Pelosi announced her retirement, saying it was time for a new generation of leaders for the Democratic Party. Wiener also entered the race before Pelosi made her plans public.

After making millions of dollars as one of the first software engineers at the payment processing company Stripe, Chakrabarti worked on Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign and later became chief of staff to progressive icon Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

“I think I’m the only one willing to challenge the Democratic party establishment,” Chakrabarti told KQED this week. “People know that the Democratic party needs a new direction, it needs new ideas and it needs solutions that are as big as the problems that we face. And that’s what I’m offering the voters.”

What voters care about

“Affordability” is the mantra for Democratic candidates across the country, and this race will be no different. Chan, who criticizes Wiener’s “Sacramento version of affordable housing” in her campaign announcement video, will emphasize affordability as it relates to housing, but also in health care and child care.

Chakrabarti, who said he is more pro-housing than Chan, supports the controversial plan to build 800 units of housing above a Safeway in the Marina.

As expected, all three candidates promise strong opposition to Trump’s policies, including ICE raids, mass deportations and federal budget cuts. Wiener, who authored a new law banning ICE agents from wearing face coverings and bills supporting trans students, is a frequent target of right-wing hatred. He wears it like a badge of honor, and even has a “Scott’s MAGA Fan Club” section on his campaign site highlighting attacks by Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene and other conservatives.

While housing is largely a local issue, defense spending is not — and U.S. funding for Israel could become a contentious topic. Wiener, who is Jewish, has been outspoken about antisemitism while trying to strike a balance between Israel’s right to exist and opposing its war in Gaza.

Chakrabarti has made Palestinian rights a centerpiece of his campaign.

“I’m opposed to military funding in Israel as long as the genocide continues,” he said.

Chan has also said she would not support sending “weapons of war” to Israel, calling the situation in Gaza a human rights violation that she believes meets the legal definition of genocide.

Money, endorsements — and Pelosi’s shadow

The success or failure of a campaign depends on many factors, including name recognition, their record, voter enthusiasm, endorsements and resources.

Chakrabarti is the least well-known of the candidates, but he has access to enormous personal wealth to self-fund his campaign. Since this is his first run for office, he mostly points to his work behind the scenes, including his role in helping promote the Green New Deal, which he said helped center climate change as the key environmental issue.

“It’s going to take a movement of candidates and people to make this happen,” he said. “But I think that’s what’s possible right now, and that’s why I’m running.”

Chan, who is running for the first time outside a relatively small district, could face fundraising challenges. But her relationships with local unions, such as Unite Here Local 2, which represents workers in the hospitality industry, could help with campaign cash and volunteers.

Wiener has been raising money for a potential congressional run since 2023, reporting more than $1 million raised through September, according to federal campaign finance data. He said fundraising accelerated significantly after Pelosi announced her retirement.

It’s not clear if Pelosi herself will put her thumb on the scale for one of her would-be successors. Among the candidates, she seems most aligned with Chan, who has appeared alongside her at recent public events.

An endorsement from the San Francisco Democratic Party could provide a major boost. But that’s a significant hurdle, as it requires support from 60% of local delegates.

Local party chair Nancy Tung, a leader of the party’s more moderate wing, thinks only one candidate could conceivably win an endorsement.

“It’s within the realm of possibility that Scott Wiener would actually get the endorsement,” Tung told KQED this week. “I think he’s probably got the best chance.”

In the June primary, voters will decide which two candidates will advance to the November general election in the race for this solid Democratic seat.