4 things to know as the war between Israel and Iran intensifies

There was panic and confusion in Iran's capital city of Tehran as Israel warned hundreds of thousands of civilians to evacuate ahead of more potential strikes as the broadening conflict between the two countries spilled into its fifth day.

Cars filled with people fleeing waited in miles-long lines at gas stations, trying to buy fuel. Roads out of the city were packed with bumper-to-bumper traffic. On Tuesday, the Israeli military said it had launched a "large scale attack wave in the heart of Iran," with dozens of fighter jets targeting 12 different sites.

Zahra, an unemployed fashion designer in Tehran, told NPR she was trying to get out of the city to head to her hometown in western Iran but all the roads were blocked. She asked that only her first name be used because she feared government reprisal for speaking to the media.

"We don't know what we should do. What decisions can we or should we make? We don't have internet. We cannot even hear the news," she said in a series of voice notes that she says took her more than 18 hours to send due to the lack of signal.

"Each person is only thinking about how they can save their own lives or the lives of their loved ones," she said. "Everyone is just thinking about how to avoid these missiles."

President Trump posted on his social media platform late Monday also calling for civilians in Tehran to leave.

"IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON," Trump wrote. "Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!"

On Tuesday, he went a step further, suggesting in a post that the U.S. knew the location of Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there — We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now."

Trump left the G7 summit in Canada a day early, due to the intensifying conflict in the Middle East.

"I have to be back. It's very important," he told reporters as he prepared to return to the U.S. "I have to be back as soon as I can."

Here are four things to know about the conflict.

1. Many civilians have been caught in the crossfire

Israel says its assault on Iran is necessary to prevent the country from building a nuclear weapon – which Israel sees as an existential threat – insisting its strikes have "precisely" targeted military and nuclear facilities and taken out several top military leaders and nuclear scientists.

Those strikes have also killed more than 200 civilians, including at least 20 children, according to the Iranian government. Iran maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful.

Dena, a 48-year-old resident of Tehran – who also asked to be identified only by her first name for fear of government reprisal – says the government has given civilians no information on how to protect themselves.

"They don't give us any practical tips. No information as to which locations we should avoid and which ones are safe to go. They don't talk about it at all," she says. "They are only applauding and celebrating shooting missiles at Israel."

Iran has responded by launching more than 300 missiles and hundreds of drones toward Israel, in several waves of attacks that have sent civilians throughout both Israel and the occupied West Bank scrambling for cover amidst blaring air raid sirens. Israel's military says many of the projectiles were intercepted, but several have hit, causing damage to residential buildings, killing at least 24 civilians and wounding hundreds more, according to Israel's prime minister's office.

Israel and Iran have traded direct fire several times – most recently in October of last year – since the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel in 2023 sparked the current war in Gaza. But this new round has lasted longer and been more destructive and deadly for both sides.

"Everything that we're watching is defying expectations," Aaron Stein, president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told NPR's All Things Considered. He said Israel has gained control of much of Iran's airspace and taken out its missile capabilities faster than many experts thought possible.

"But if they don't get certain nuclear facilities, and Iran has the capability at the end of this thing to rapidly build a nuclear weapon, I will have judged this as a failure on the Israeli side," said Stein.

2. Destroying all of Iran's nuclear sites won't be easy

Iran has several nuclear facilities underground, specifically south of Tehran in Natanz and Fordo, the latter of which is built deep inside a mountain. That poses a serious challenge for Israel's air-to-ground capability.

The facilities – and the centrifuges they contain – can be used to enrich uranium to a purity that could be used either in a nuclear reactor to generate electricity or to build an atomic weapon, experts say.

Speaking to the BBC on Monday, the International Atomic Energy Agency's Director, General Rafael Grossi, said it was likely that all of the 15,000 centrifuges at Natanz, Iran's largest such facility, had been severely damaged by Israeli airstrikes. He said there was "very limited, if any, damage" visible at the underground Fordo enrichment plant.

Fordo, "is deeply buried," says Daniel Shapiro, former U.S. ambassador to Israel and distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council, a non-partisan think thank in Washington, D.C. "[Only] the United States has the kind of bunker busting capabilities that can actually destroy that facility. But I don't rule out that Israel has some surprises up its sleeve."

3. Israel's endgame is unclear

At a news briefing on Monday evening, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel's strikes have set back Iran's nuclear program by a "very long time," but emphasized that more targets remain. When asked if Israel plans to keep fighting until the Iranian government falls, Netanyahu said the main goal is to dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities — but also added that the "regime is very weak."

In an interview with ABC News Monday, Netanyahu said that killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would "end the conflict."

But experts on the region tell NPR that it's unlikely Israel is specifically trying to go that far right now.

"I don't think regime change is the objective of this Israeli campaign," says Shapiro, who served as ambassador to Israel during the Obama presidency. "I don't think it's possible to do it with this kind of military campaign, and I don't think that's even a legitimate objective."

Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a non-partisan think tank, echoed that view.

"Even strategic bombing doesn't do it," he says. Without occupying the country, he adds, it would be nearly impossible.

Instead, Israel is likely relying on a "mowing the grass" strategy, with the expectation of striking again later in an iterative process of setting back Iran's nuclear program, Miller says.

Meanwhile, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Tuesday that he was seeking "a real end" to Iran's nuclear ambitions, which he called "better than a ceasefire."

4. The U.S. could be drawn in

Although Israel operates sophisticated U.S.-made warplanes, such as the F-35 fighter, it does not possess the enormous 30,000 pound bunker-busting bombs and the B-2 stealth bombers needed to deliver them – tools only the U.S. possesses.

That puts Israel in a difficult position, says Miller of the Carnegie Endowment.

"They can't destroy Tehran's program on their own," he says. "But if they stop and it survives, this will be viewed as a defeat."

To seriously degrade Iran's nuclear program, Israel would likely need U.S. assistance.

Whether or not Washington will do that is still a question. Trump was asked at the G7 summit in Canada what it would take for the U.S. to become militarily involved, to which he responded simply: "I don't want to talk about that."

But the U.S. has sent fighter jets and military planes to the region, as the conflict has escalated. B-2 stealth bombers had been in place at a nearby U.S. base in the Indian Ocean, but have since moved.

"A unilateral Israeli strike... would set back the program by a few weeks to a few months. A U.S. attack would set it back by one or two years," says Ali Vaez, director of the International Crisis Group's Iran Project.

However, he cautions: "If the U.S. intervenes, the door to diplomacy will be shut entirely... Iran would probably hunker down... while trying to reconstitute its nuclear program and dash for a nuclear weapon."

The U.S. had been in the midst of talks with Iran over its nuclear program when Israel launched the surprise attack late last week. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran were supposed to continue last weekend, but have since stalled.

There could also be consequences for the U.S., according to Shapiro.

"Iran might try to retaliate against U.S. forces at bases in the Gulf states... or to blockade energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz," he says. "These are ways Iran might try to make sure if they suffer, everybody suffers."

Trump has strongly warned Iran against attacking the U.S., saying the American military would respond with "full strength and might."

Shir David contributed to this report from Tel Aviv. NPR's Tom Bowman contributed from Washington, D.C.

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