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Some Economists Predict Pent-Up Demand Will Drive California's Economy If Covid-19 Vaccine Can Be Distributed
Two actresses sing at an L.A. home circa 1925. The 1920s marked a period of rapid economic growth, something UCLA forecasters see coming if the COVID-19 vaccine is widely distributed in the coming months. (General Photographic Agency/Getty Images)
A new forecast predicts the U.S. economy will get worse before it gets better. That’s the bad news.
The good news? UCLA economists making the forecast see much better days ahead once the COVID-19 vaccine is distributed. So good, in fact, that they’re comparing it to the rapid economic growth in a similar period from last century.
The Roaring Twenties, which also marked a period of significant social change, followed another devastating pandemic: The 1918 Flu.
Here’s what the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast quarterly report is forecasting:
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A difficult next few months:
- slow growth for the U.S. economy
- high unemployment
- difficulty paying the bills for many people
But the report predicts a light at the end of the tunnel:
- an increase in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) from 1.8% this quarter to a strong 6% towards the middle of 2021 and continued growth into 2022.
- Additionally, the report estimates that California’s unemployment rate will gradually improve, dropping from 8.9% in this quarter to 6.9% in 2021, 5.2% in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023.
The forecast comes with a big asterisk: it assumes mass distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine will succeed by the middle of next year. If that assumption holds, the economists anticipate a burst of pent-up consumer demand that will help the economy recover.
Leila Bengali, an economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast and co-author of the California section of its latest report, joined our newsroom’s local news and culture show, Take Two, to describe why mass vaccination could spark economic growth. Bengali told host A Martinez:
“Once that [vaccine distribution] happens, consumers will feel comfortable and safe and able to go out and consume services."
According to Bengali, California’s economy is expected to follow the country’s recovery as a whole, although there will be some differences when it comes to the unemployment rate. While travel-dependent industries such as leisure and hospitality could see a slower rebound, the forecast predicts the technology sectors, residential construction and logistics will make strong gains and lead the state’s recovery.
Listen to the interview:
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But the game has changed: Congress voted to eliminate funding for public media across the country. Here at LAist that means a loss of $1.7 million in our budget every year. We want to assure you that despite growing threats to free press and free speech, LAist will remain a voice you know and trust. Speaking frankly, the amount of reader support we receive will help determine how strong of a newsroom we are going forward to cover the important news in our community.
We’re asking you to stand up for independent reporting that will not be silenced. With more individuals like you supporting this public service, we can continue to provide essential coverage for Southern Californians that you can’t find anywhere else. Become a monthly member today to help sustain this mission.
Thank you for your generous support and belief in the value of independent news.
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