The Brief

Of all the products that would be affected by President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on Mexico, avocados stand out: 90% of avocados consumed in the U.S. are imported. And almost all of those imports come from Mexico.

Trump has said he plans to impose a blanket tariff of 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with an additional 10% tax on goods from China.

It's unclear whether the tariffs will be implemented or if they will serve merely as a negotiating tactic.

If enacted, they could have multiple effects on the avocado industry.

"Broad tariffs, like what's being proposed, is not something that we've seen" before, says David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University. "We had the trade war with China back in 2018 that affected steel and aluminum, but when it comes to food, these types of policy proposals are not something that are very common or that we've seen recently."

With one of the biggest guacamole-eating events of the year — the Super Bowl — approaching in February, here's what to know about avocados, tariffs, and why so many avocados are grown in Mexico.

Prices will rise

Avocados are displayed in a grocery store in Washington, D.C., on June 14, 2022. Experts predict avocado prices will rise in the event of tariffs on Mexican imports.

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Stefani Reynolds

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AFP via Getty Images

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First, a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico would lead to higher avocado prices at the grocery store.

But estimating just how much higher is hard to say. It's possible that producers and importers will absorb some of the costs to keep prices down and stay more competitive.

Ortega says there could be "pretty significant increases in the price of avocados. Maybe not the full 25%, but pretty close, given that there's very little substitute ability with regards to where we would source avocados."

But he cautions that because the tariffs apply only to the product's value at the border, and not to other costs like transportation and distribution within the U.S., prices may not go up by the full 25%.

Regardless of these potential price increases, however, people in the U.S. love their avocados and they're willing to pay more. Avocado consumption tripled in the U.S. between 2000 and 2021.

"Given that avocado is a staple of our consumption here, I would say that the elasticity is not very high, meaning that even with a big increase in price, consumption is not going to change that much," says Luis Ribera, a professor and extension economist in the agricultural economics department at Texas A&M University.

Why Mexico

A farmer works at an avocado plantation at the Los Cerritos avocado group ranch in Ciudad Guzman, state of Jalisco, Mexico, on Feb. 10, 2023. Most of the avocados consumed in the U.S. are grown in Mexico.

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Ulises Ruiz

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AFP via Getty Images

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Mexico is the biggest producer of avocados in the world and exported $3.3 billion worth of avocados in 2023. A study funded by the industry estimated that avocado production supports 78,000 permanent jobs and 310,000 seasonal jobs in Mexico.

"It's a very important business in Mexico, very lucrative," Ribera says.

Mexico emerged as the largest foreign supplier of fruits and vegetables to the U.S. for a few reasons, he says. One: Its proximity to the U.S. market. With a perishable product, closer is better. Peru is the second-largest source of foreign avocados in the U.S., but its greater distance means avocados need to be shipped farther.

The other reasons for Mexico are favorable weather that allows for year-round production of avocados and access to cheap labor, according to Ribera.

Avocados are grown in the U.S. too, mostly in California and to a lesser extent Florida and Hawaii, but U.S. growers can't meet Americans' big appetite. Avocado production in the U.S. has declined, even as Americans grew fonder of the green fruit, according to the USDA.

California avocado growers have faced droughts and wildfires in recent years, making it difficult to offer the year-round availability that American consumers crave, Ortega says. In addition, land is expensive and water is limited.

If the goal of implementing tariffs is to force avocado production to move somewhere besides Mexico, that isn't easy.

It takes about eight years for avocado trees to produce fruit, according to the USDA. "This is not a product that you can just simply plant more of this season and you get more of in a few months," Ortega says.

Other countries where the U.S. sources avocados — Peru, the Dominican Republic and Chile — "just simply don't have the production capacity to replace Mexico's supply," he says.

Tariffs could impact the organic avocado market

Tariffs could also alter the market dynamic when it comes to organic vs. conventional foods.

If prices rise across the board, consumers who typically buy organic avocados might switch to conventional ones to save money. Organic produce makes up about 15% of total fruit and vegetable sales in the U.S., according to the Organic Trade Association, which represents hundreds of organic businesses and thousands of farmers.

"My hypothesis is that the price of conventional products would increase more than the premium organic product," Ortega says. He reasons that because people who are used to buying organic avocados would move to buy conventional ones, "that in turn increases the demand and would make prices rise more for that category."

Matthew Dillon, co-CEO of the Organic Trade Association, says those in the organic food industry are looking at diversifying their supply chains away from Mexico, but there's a three-year transition period required for farmers to switch from producing conventional to organic produce.

"Supply chains are not incredibly elastic in organic. It takes more time to pivot and change when there's a supply chain disruption. And tariffs are in some ways a form of supply chain disruption for a company, because it creates unpredictable pricing," he says.

Together with grocery prices that have gone up more than 26% since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump's plans for tariffs on Mexico, along with mass deportations, could create "a perfect storm of high inflationary pressure on the organic sector," Dillon says.

Furthermore, retaliatory tariffs from Mexico could have their own impacts.

Avocado producers face uncertainty as Trump's return looms

Avocados in boxes are pictured at a packing plant in the municipality of Ario de Rosales, Michoacan state, Mexico, on Sept. 21, 2023.

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Alfredo Estrella

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AFP via Getty Images

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Aside from the threat of tariffs, the avocado industry has other challenges to deal with: climate change presents several problems, and avocados require a large amount of water to grow. Meanwhile, environmentalists say some avocado growers are cutting down forests to plant avocados.

Producers also face extortion from criminal gangs in Mexico.

And now with Trump's tariff threats, producers are left to wonder about their next steps.

"Producers, they react to market fundamentals," Ribera says. For example, people can foresee how bad weather in Mexico would affect avocado prices. Producers and retailers will adjust to higher and lower demand.

"The issue with a tariff is it's not a market fundamental — it's a policy. It's a political move," he says. "It could happen or it could not happen, or it could be increased or it could be decreased, you know. So it's hard for the whole supply chain to adjust."

A record-baking heat wave is scalding California, with major consequences for the state’s most important reservoir: its snowpack.

Providing about a third of the state’s water supply, the Sierra Nevada snowpack is a vital source of spring and summer runoff that refills reservoirs when the state needs the water most.

But a warm wet storm followed February’s snow, and now, March temperatures are shattering records — prompting warnings of rapid snowmelt and swift rivers.

Historically, the snowpack is at its deepest in April. But climate change is shifting runoff earlier, leaving less water trickling down the mountains in warmer months for homes, farms, fish, hydropower and forests.

“In an ideal world, you'd have your reservoir full right now, and this additional huge snowpack reservoir that we know will help replenish and provide more water supply,” said Levi Johnson, operations manager for the Central Valley Project, the massive federal water system that funnels northern California river water to the Central Valley and parts of the Bay Area.

This year, he said, “we're not going to have that.”

California’s reservoirs are in good shape, brimming above historic averages with many nearing capacity. But that summertime snow bank on the slopes of the Sierra Nevada is disappearing early, and fast — dropping to 38% of average for mid-March statewide.

It’s not yet the worst snowpack on record: that distinction belongs to 2015, when then-Gov. Jerry Brown stood on brown, barren slopes of the Sierra Nevada to watch scientists measure the most meager snowpack in history.

But this year’s snowpack is rapidly approaching the worst five on record for April 1st, state climatologist Michael Anderson said — and it’s likely to worsen still as temperatures climb. From early to mid-March, the snowpack has been disappearing at a rate of roughly 1% per day. 

It’s a sharp departure from the near-average conditions of last year, and presents both a challenge and a glimpse of the future for reservoir operators in the state.

Conflicting roles for reservoirs

Many of California’s reservoirs serve a dual role: stoppering flood flows and storing water for drier times ahead.

Those roles sometimes conflict — as they did at Lake Mendocino, which dried to a mud puddle during the 2012–16 drought. Rigid federal operating rules forced the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to release vital water supplies from the dam to make room for winter floods that didn’t come.

The dire water shortages that followed spurred an experimental partnership called Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations, between the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego’s Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes and state, federal and local agencies.

The program incorporates advanced forecasting and weather observations into reservoir release decisions at Lake Mendocino. It prevented the reservoir from going dry during the most recent drought, according to Don Seymour, deputy director of engineering at Sonoma Water, which co-manages the reservoir.

Now, 165 miles away in the Sierra Foothills, Yuba Water Agency is eyeing adopting the same program for New Bullards Bar, a reservoir roughly eight times bigger than Lake Mendocino that’s fed by Sierra snowmelt on the North Yuba River.

The reservoir supplies water to more than 60,000 acres of farmland in Yuba County as well as users south of the Delta. But early snowmelt is complicating efforts to store that water.

“We're seeing snowmelt conditions in mid-March that we normally don't see until at least mid-May,” said general manager Willie Whittlesey. “It's pretty obvious that this is the runoff — this is the snowmelt — and it's just happening about two months early.”

The reservoir is nearly full at 114% of average for this date and 84% of total capacity.

But when snowmelt arrives early, the agency can’t catch it once the reservoir reaches a certain level — even when no storms are in the immediate forecast. Federal rules require Yuba Water to maintain a certain amount of empty space until June to absorb potential floodwaters, according to Whittlesey.

Yuba Water is working with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to update this decades-old rulebook, Whittlesey said, but until then it must request special permission to store the extra water.

Though the agency has received permission in the past, this year it’s also contending with a rupture in a major pipe to one of its hydropower facilities, which is forcing the agency to hold back more water behind the dam.

Whittlesey said he suspects that the combination of flood-control requirements and damage control after the pipe failure is likely costing them tens of thousands of acre-feet of snowmelt.

The California Department of Water Resources, which manages Lake Oroville — the state’s second-largest reservoir — told CalMatters that it’s storing water beyond its normal flood control limits, with permission from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

In the Bay Area, the East Bay Municipal Utility District, California’s second-largest urban water supplier, owns and operates the Camanche and Pardee reservoirs in the Central Sierra foothills.

“We're working to save every drop in light of the warm temperatures that we are experiencing now, and in light of all the zeros that we are seeing in terms of a rain or snow forecast,” said spokesperson Andrea Pook. “The last time that we had run off this early was in 2015.”

Pook said the district is releasing less water from its reservoirs now, in order to preserve more for the fall when salmon migrate upriver to spawn.

“We're tracking to not necessarily be in a drought situation. But I am not convinced that we're going to fill our reservoirs by July 1st, which is our usual goal,” Pook said.

Improved forecasts after a major miss

Even as California suffers record heat and early snowmelt, the state is better prepared than in the past.

Five years ago, state forecasters badly missed their runoff predictions — overestimating the snowmelt expected to refill reservoirs by up to 68%. Dry soils and a parched atmosphere drank up the runoff before it could flow into storage. Farms and cities scrambled in the middle of a drought as supplies fell far short of expectations.

This year is different. Major reservoirs are already above historic averages, and early season storms soaked the soil beneath the snowpack, making it less likely to swallow the runoff.

The state has also been working on better forecasts.

“Things have substantially improved,” said Andrew Schwartz, Director of UC Berkeley’s Central Sierra Snow Laboratory, in an email to CalMatters.

Johnson, at the federal Central Valley Project, said that the state and federal water delivery systems are in a better spot than five years ago, and that forecasts haven’t made a major miss since.

But the season’s early melt may still leave a gap.

“It's going to get us through this year just fine,” Johnson said. “But it's not as ideal as having that additional snow reservoir ready to run off through summer, and replenish what we're going to be releasing.”

Improved snowpack modeling and soil moisture estimates, experimental temperature measurements at different snow depths, university collaborations and incorporating weather outlooks are helping, according to the Department of Water Resources.

Still, between state budget shortfalls and federal cuts, challenges remain, Anderson said.

Efforts to install more soil moisture sensors in national forests have run into permitting slowdowns at the U.S. Forest Service, which has shed thousands of employees under President Donald Trump.

“You wait in line a lot longer,” Anderson said. “That's been the biggest limitation of late. There just isn't anybody there.”

This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.

This story first appeared on The LA Local.

The fasting period for millions of Muslims ends this weekend with Eid al-Fitr — the “festival of breaking the fast” — marking the end of Ramadan. 

The holiday, which lasts three days, centers on prayer, charity and time spent with family and community. 

And with it comes a wave of joyful celebrations, feasts and family events.

These gatherings arrive after a stretch of difficult years marked by global conflict, including wars in Iran, Gaza, Lebanon and Sudan, and many other ongoing conflicts worldwide.

For many, those events have cast a shadow over recent Ramadans, making the spirit of the holy month feel harder to fully hold onto, especially for those watching the violence unfold from afar.

Still, Eid offers a moment of grounding, with events showing how that sense of togetherness endures — a chance to gather with loved ones, give thanks and find meaning in community.

And across Los Angeles, that spirit is reflected in a range of events. From Eid-themed picnics in Ladera Heights to comedy shows in Westlake to a 5K run through Boyle Heights, here are some of the best ways to commemorate the end of Ramadan.

Chand Raat Mela at Islamic Center of South Bay–LA

South Bay
25816 Walnut St. Lomita
Date: Thursday, March 19
Time: 6 to 11 p.m.
More info here.

Grab some food, browse outfits and jewelry, get your mehndi (henna) done and soak up the pre‑Eid buzz with families from all over.

Prayer at Masjid Umar Ibn Al Khattab

Exposition Park
1025 W Exposition Blvd, Los Angeles
Date: Friday, March 20,
Time: 8 a.m. and 8:30 a.m.
More info here.

Join a packed Eid congregation across from USC, with early‑morning prayer, and complimentary coffee, tea and snacks such as donuts, cookies, sandwiches, nachos and hot dogs. 

Prayer at Masjid Al-Zahra

Southeast LA
8152 Seville Ave, South Gate
Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 7:30 am
More info here.

Masjid Al-Zahra is offering prayers followed by a breakfast. 

Prayer at the Islamic Center of Southern California 

Koreatown
434 S. Vermont Ave., Los Angeles
Date: Friday, March 20
Time: Take beerat at 7 a.m. with prayer at 7:30 a.m.; Take beerat at 9 a.m. with prayer at 9:30 a.m.
More info here.

Mark a historic Eid as Islamic Center of Southern California (ICSC) hosts prayers at its Vermont Avenue campus, offering multiple morning prayer times and easy access to Koreatown eats afterward.

Eid Picnic at Kenneth Hahn

Ladera Heights
4100 S. La Cienega Blvd., Los Angeles
Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 2 to 7 p.m.
More info here.

Join the fun with BBQ on the grill, kids getting soaked in water games, and friendly basketball and soccer showdowns.

Eid in the City at Ladera Park

Ladera Heights
6027 Ladera Park Ave., Los Angeles
Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 3 p.m.
More info here.

Pack a blanket, round up the crew and hang out at this potluck in the park.

Wellness as Resistance at InnerCity

Boyle Heights
3467 Whittier Blvd., Los Angeles
Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 6:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m.
More info here.

Gaby Alcala from Luminous Body Therapy is offering a free, grounding community sound bath at InnerCity Struggle’s Youth and Community Center.

Nowruz 2026

Highland Park
5541 York Blvd., Los Angeles
Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 7 p.m.
More info here.

Celebrate the arrival of spring with Nowruz, the Persian New Year, featuring live Persian music.

“Beetlejuice” at the Pantages

Hollywood
6233 Hollywood Blvd, Los Angeles
Date: Friday, March 20 to Sunday, March 22
Time: Various
More info here.

The cult‑favorite musical adaptation of “Beetlejuice” delivers big spectacle, singalong moments right on Hollywood Boulevard.

Immanuel Wilkins at Blue Note 

Hollywood
6372 Sunset Blvd, Los Angeles
Date: Friday, March 20 to Sunday, March 22
Time: Various
More info here.

Saxophonist Immanuel Wilkins brings cutting‑edge jazz to Blue Note for an ideal date night.

Beautify your community

East LA
4025 City Terrace Drive, Los Angeles
Date: Saturday, March 21
Time: 9:30 a.m. to 11 a.m.
More info here.

Connect with your neighbors at a street cleanup hosted by Visión City Terrace and the Maravilla Community Advisory Committee at City Terrace Library.

Goats & Totes

Westside
8840 National Blvd., Culver City
Date: Saturday, March 21
Time: 11 a.m.More info here.

Take the family to meet and pet some goats at Ivy Station.

DOLORES at Plaza de la Raza

Lincoln Heights
3540 N. Mission Road, Los Angeles
Date: Saturday, March 21
Time: 3 p.m.
More info here.

Explore the legacy of Dolores Huerta with a screening, art exhibit, opening reception and panel conversation at the Plaza de la Raza Boathouse Gallery as part of a special exhibition on view through April 12, 2026.

Andrew Callaghan at The Wiltern 

Westlake
3790 Wilshire Blvd., Los Angeles
Date: Saturday, March 21
Time: 7:30 p.m.
More info here.

Andrew Callaghan brings his popular “Channel 5” world to the stage for a one‑night carnival of live bits, interviews and typically internet-native chaos.

“Vertigo” in Concert with the LA Phil

Downtown
111 S Grand Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90012
Date: Saturday, March 21
Time: 8 p.m.
More info here.

See Hitchcock’s “Vertigo” on the big screen while the LA Phil performs Bernard Herrmann’s iconic score live at Walt Disney Concert Hall.

Beautify your community

East LA
2609 E. Cesar E. Chavez Ave., Los Angeles
Date: Sunday, March 22
Time: 7:30 a.m.
More info here.

Join Healing in Spanglish and Acurrúcame Cafe for a 5K run or 2-mile walk through Boyle Heights. Stay for the post-run cafecito. The first 50 cars will get access to free parking at 345 N. Fickett St.

Dorsey High School Eid Al‑Fitr Festival 2026

Crenshaw
3537 Farmdale Ave., Los Angeles
Date: Sunday, March 22
Time: 12 to 4 p.m.
More info here.

Spend the afternoon roaming food stalls, checking out vendors and just hanging out. Adults pay a small entry fee, kids get in free.

Butterfly Pavilion

Exposition Park
900 Exposition Blvd., Los Angeles
Date: Sunday, March 22
Time: 10 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.
More info here.

Starting Sunday, you can take the kids to walk among hundreds of beautiful butterflies at the Natural History Museum. Reservations are required. The pavilion runs through the summer. 

New Horizon School Eid Breakfast

San Gabriel Valley
651 N. Orange Grove Blvd., Pasadena
Date: Monday, March 30
Time: 9 a.m. to 1 p.m.
More info here.

Roll up with the family for a laid‑back breakfast, kids’ activities and plenty of time to catch up with friends between coffee refills.

The El Monte Union High School District agreed to sweeping reforms Friday in settling a state attorney general investigation into how it handled allegations staff sexually abused students.

The wide-ranging stipulated judgment with the school district draws to a close an 18-month investigation, which found “systemic shortfalls in the district’s response to allegations and complaints of sexual harassment, assault, and abuse of students.” The investigation was spurred by a 2023 article in Business Insider, The Predators’ Playground, which documented decades of sexual misconduct by teachers, coaches and other staff at one of the district’s schools, Rosemead High, ranging from sexual harassment and groping to statutory rape.

“Every child deserves to learn and grow in a safe and supportive school environment. Unfortunately, our investigation found that this has not always been the case for students enrolled in El Monte Union High School District,” Attorney General Rob Bonta said. District administrators, he added, “consistently mishandled students’ complaints of sexual harassment, assault, and abuse by District employees and others. In doing so, it jeopardized the safety and well-being of its students and violated the community’s trust. Today’s settlement marks a beginning, not an end. I am hopeful that the District will move swiftly to implement the reforms required by this settlement, and my office will be monitoring closely to ensure its compliance.”

In an emailed statement, El Monte Superintendent Edward Zuniga said that “student safety and well-being remain our highest priorities. This agreement reflects our continued commitment to strengthening systems that support safe, inclusive, and respectful learning environments.”

Reforms mandated after investigation

Among other changes, the stipulated judgment requires the district to designate a compliance coordinator to investigate complaints of sexual harassment or abuse and creates a centralized system to store documents related to investigations. It also requires the district to maintain a list of substitute teachers found to have violated the district’s employee policy on appropriate boundaries with students. The agreement requires the district to establish an advisory committee to study its compliance with the reforms and make additional recommendations, and to provide students and parents with training for how to recognize the signs of grooming — curriculum that Rosemead students have fought to have implemented for the past four years.

The agreement is a rare instance of state law enforcement taking an active role in a K-12 school district’s compliance with California education code and mandated reporting laws. The only other agreement like it was reached in 2024 with the Redlands Unified School District, following sexual abuse and misconduct allegations that cost the district more than $50 million in legal settlements. In El Monte’s case, announced Friday by Bonta at a press conference in Los Angeles, the judgment requires four years of court-supervised oversight, and includes sweeping reforms in how the district handles serious misconduct allegations.

In an interview with CalMatters, Bonta said that his office was focused on trying to establish best practices for school districts across the state in how to address sexual misconduct allegations when they surface. “I don’t think this will be the last case of this type, unfortunately,” Bonta said, adding that his staff would conduct unannounced site visits of the district in the months ahead to ensure compliance with the settlement. “We think we’ve arrived at a model that can really help districts that have failed systemically, transform.”

Attorneys in the justice department’s Bureau of Children's Justice conducted the investigation, which focused on the district’s handling of sexual misconduct allegations against school staff since 2018. It included a review of more than 100 complaints, thousands of pages of documents, and interviews with more than two dozen employees, former students and others. The investigation found that district officials had failed to properly respond to complaints, provide adequate reporting procedures and adequately maintain records of misconduct allegations.

The findings mirror those first identified by Business Insider, which sued the school district for not releasing records under the California Public Records Act. That case settled out of court, with district administrators agreeing to conduct new searches for records and pay $125,000 in legal fees. The district's head of human resources, Robin Torres, said in a deposition that her office had discarded disciplinary records it was legally obligated to keep. She acknowledged that her predecessors had failed to properly investigate allegations that staff had sexually harassed students or had sex with former students soon after they graduated.

Years of sex abuse allegations

The stipulated judgment is the latest fallout from generations of Rosemead High students coming forward to share their stories of being preyed upon and groomed for sexual relationships at school. The LA Sheriff’s Department opened criminal probes into at least three former staffers, while students walked out of class in protest and several teachers resigned following district investigations. At least five civil lawsuits have been filed on behalf of former students. Many were represented by attorneys Dominique Boubion and Michael Carrillo, who previously brought a case against the district that resulted in a $5 million verdict in favor of a former student who said she was abused by a teacher the district allowed to continue teaching after he was accused of fondling children.

“The attorney general’s intervention confirms what survivors have been saying for years: EMUHSD failed its students,” Boubion told CalMatters. “This was not an isolated breakdown. It was a longstanding failure to protect children, and it stretches back decades. The district should stop resisting and start complying. Students have the right to be safe at school.”

A new state law, the Safe Learning Environments Act, took effect earlier this year and gives school officials more tools to identify suspected misconduct. State Sen. Sasha Renée Pérez, a Democrat from Alhambra whose district includes Rosemead High, authored the law.

Among other reforms, the law establishes the creation of a non-public database of alleged staff misconduct that administrators are required to consult before hiring new employees. Similar databases already exist in other states as part of a growing nationwide effort to prohibit instances of “pass the trash,” where educators accused of sexual misconduct leave a school district only to return to the classroom elsewhere. This happened numerous times in the El Monte district.

Matt Drange is a journalist with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Projectand an alumnus of Rosemead High School. He can be reached at matt.drange@occrp.org.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.