The Brief

Of all the products that would be affected by President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on Mexico, avocados stand out: 90% of avocados consumed in the U.S. are imported. And almost all of those imports come from Mexico.

Trump has said he plans to impose a blanket tariff of 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with an additional 10% tax on goods from China.

It's unclear whether the tariffs will be implemented or if they will serve merely as a negotiating tactic.

If enacted, they could have multiple effects on the avocado industry.

"Broad tariffs, like what's being proposed, is not something that we've seen" before, says David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University. "We had the trade war with China back in 2018 that affected steel and aluminum, but when it comes to food, these types of policy proposals are not something that are very common or that we've seen recently."

With one of the biggest guacamole-eating events of the year — the Super Bowl — approaching in February, here's what to know about avocados, tariffs, and why so many avocados are grown in Mexico.

Prices will rise

Avocados are displayed in a grocery store in Washington, D.C., on June 14, 2022. Experts predict avocado prices will rise in the event of tariffs on Mexican imports.

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Stefani Reynolds

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First, a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico would lead to higher avocado prices at the grocery store.

But estimating just how much higher is hard to say. It's possible that producers and importers will absorb some of the costs to keep prices down and stay more competitive.

Ortega says there could be "pretty significant increases in the price of avocados. Maybe not the full 25%, but pretty close, given that there's very little substitute ability with regards to where we would source avocados."

But he cautions that because the tariffs apply only to the product's value at the border, and not to other costs like transportation and distribution within the U.S., prices may not go up by the full 25%.

Regardless of these potential price increases, however, people in the U.S. love their avocados and they're willing to pay more. Avocado consumption tripled in the U.S. between 2000 and 2021.

"Given that avocado is a staple of our consumption here, I would say that the elasticity is not very high, meaning that even with a big increase in price, consumption is not going to change that much," says Luis Ribera, a professor and extension economist in the agricultural economics department at Texas A&M University.

Why Mexico

A farmer works at an avocado plantation at the Los Cerritos avocado group ranch in Ciudad Guzman, state of Jalisco, Mexico, on Feb. 10, 2023. Most of the avocados consumed in the U.S. are grown in Mexico.

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Ulises Ruiz

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Mexico is the biggest producer of avocados in the world and exported $3.3 billion worth of avocados in 2023. A study funded by the industry estimated that avocado production supports 78,000 permanent jobs and 310,000 seasonal jobs in Mexico.

"It's a very important business in Mexico, very lucrative," Ribera says.

Mexico emerged as the largest foreign supplier of fruits and vegetables to the U.S. for a few reasons, he says. One: Its proximity to the U.S. market. With a perishable product, closer is better. Peru is the second-largest source of foreign avocados in the U.S., but its greater distance means avocados need to be shipped farther.

The other reasons for Mexico are favorable weather that allows for year-round production of avocados and access to cheap labor, according to Ribera.

Avocados are grown in the U.S. too, mostly in California and to a lesser extent Florida and Hawaii, but U.S. growers can't meet Americans' big appetite. Avocado production in the U.S. has declined, even as Americans grew fonder of the green fruit, according to the USDA.

California avocado growers have faced droughts and wildfires in recent years, making it difficult to offer the year-round availability that American consumers crave, Ortega says. In addition, land is expensive and water is limited.

If the goal of implementing tariffs is to force avocado production to move somewhere besides Mexico, that isn't easy.

It takes about eight years for avocado trees to produce fruit, according to the USDA. "This is not a product that you can just simply plant more of this season and you get more of in a few months," Ortega says.

Other countries where the U.S. sources avocados — Peru, the Dominican Republic and Chile — "just simply don't have the production capacity to replace Mexico's supply," he says.

Tariffs could impact the organic avocado market

Tariffs could also alter the market dynamic when it comes to organic vs. conventional foods.

If prices rise across the board, consumers who typically buy organic avocados might switch to conventional ones to save money. Organic produce makes up about 15% of total fruit and vegetable sales in the U.S., according to the Organic Trade Association, which represents hundreds of organic businesses and thousands of farmers.

"My hypothesis is that the price of conventional products would increase more than the premium organic product," Ortega says. He reasons that because people who are used to buying organic avocados would move to buy conventional ones, "that in turn increases the demand and would make prices rise more for that category."

Matthew Dillon, co-CEO of the Organic Trade Association, says those in the organic food industry are looking at diversifying their supply chains away from Mexico, but there's a three-year transition period required for farmers to switch from producing conventional to organic produce.

"Supply chains are not incredibly elastic in organic. It takes more time to pivot and change when there's a supply chain disruption. And tariffs are in some ways a form of supply chain disruption for a company, because it creates unpredictable pricing," he says.

Together with grocery prices that have gone up more than 26% since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump's plans for tariffs on Mexico, along with mass deportations, could create "a perfect storm of high inflationary pressure on the organic sector," Dillon says.

Furthermore, retaliatory tariffs from Mexico could have their own impacts.

Avocado producers face uncertainty as Trump's return looms

Avocados in boxes are pictured at a packing plant in the municipality of Ario de Rosales, Michoacan state, Mexico, on Sept. 21, 2023.

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Alfredo Estrella

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Aside from the threat of tariffs, the avocado industry has other challenges to deal with: climate change presents several problems, and avocados require a large amount of water to grow. Meanwhile, environmentalists say some avocado growers are cutting down forests to plant avocados.

Producers also face extortion from criminal gangs in Mexico.

And now with Trump's tariff threats, producers are left to wonder about their next steps.

"Producers, they react to market fundamentals," Ribera says. For example, people can foresee how bad weather in Mexico would affect avocado prices. Producers and retailers will adjust to higher and lower demand.

"The issue with a tariff is it's not a market fundamental — it's a policy. It's a political move," he says. "It could happen or it could not happen, or it could be increased or it could be decreased, you know. So it's hard for the whole supply chain to adjust."

This story was originally published by CalMatters. Sign up for their newsletters.

The state’s primary utility regulator is under new management. Gov. Gavin Newsom promoted Commissioner John Reynolds to president of the California Public Utilities Commission this week as part of a “new phase” of Newsom’s effort to address sky-high power bills.

Former President Alice Reynolds will be reassigned later this month to a board of governors position at the California Independent Systems Operator. The two Reynolds are not related.

“The appointment underscores a renewed focus on cutting costs and improving performance as extreme heat, wildfire risk and upgrades to the electric grid drive new demands on the system,” Newsom’s office said in a press release.

Reynolds’ focus in this position, the release said, will include lowering utility bills through oversight, making sure money spent on infrastructure does not run aground of affordability and ensuring “utilities deliver results for ratepayers–without slowing California’s clean energy progress.”

California has a mandated goal of reaching 100% carbon-free energy by 2045. At the same time, state residents pay the second-highest electric rates in the U.S. after Hawaii, according to the most recent figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration

Reynolds was appointed by Newsom to the utility commission first in 2021 and again in 2022. Before that, he served as managing counsel for autonomous vehicle company Cruise. Reynolds faced criticism in 2023 for his time at Cruise, when safety incidents led the International Brotherhood of Teamsters to call for his resignation and regulators to revoke Cruise’s autonomous vehicle permits. The commission oversees aspects of autonomous vehicle regulation in California.

Outgoing president Reynolds was appointed the commission’s top position in late 2021 after three years as Newsom’s senior energy advisor. Newsom called her “one of my most trusted advisors on energy policy” in his release.

Newsom also this week appointed Christine Harada to the board to fill the open commissioner seat. Harada was most recently the undersecretary of the California Government Operations Agency, and served as a senior advisor in former president Joe Biden’s Office of Management and Budget.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.

The U.S. Supreme Court said President Trump's tariffs policies under IEEPA, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, are unconstitutional, dealing a major blow to the president's signature economic policy.

Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the 6-3 opinion. Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito and Brett Kavanaugh dissented.

At issue in the case was the implementation of Trump's campaign pledge to impose massive tariffs on foreign imports. After his inauguration, Trump issued an executive order that initially imposed a tariff of at least 10% on goods from most countries doing business with the United States. Goods from countries like China have been hit with much higher tariffs — up to 145%, though they have since come down. Imports from allies like Canada and Mexico have been taxed at 25%; Canada's rate was later increased to 35%. 

But the up-and-down, fluctuating tariffs around the world spooked American businesses, prompting a court challenge, contending that the president had exceeded his authority in imposing the tariffs.

In some two dozen previous cases, the Supreme Court has been largely receptive to Trump's claims of presidential authority, but those victories came on the Supreme Court's emergency docket, allowing Trump policies to take effect on a temporary basis while the litigation played out in the lower courts.

In contrast, the tariff cases are the real deal, with the court having ordered full briefing and expedited arguments in the case, and offering the justices the first real opportunity to say "no" to the president.  

On Friday, the justices did just that.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

Copyright 2026 NPR

A funk band plays their first show after the release of their debut album. The band is signed to a small-time record label owned by the co-lead singer’s brother. However, tension comes to a head when an executive from Columbia Records looks to sign away the band during the show.

This lore is what leads Brassroots District: LA ‘74, a live show that’s half concert and half immersive theater located at Catch One on Pico Boulevard.

This story concept is the brainchild of musician Ari Herstand and music executive Andrew Leib.

The genesis of the idea, according to Herstand, came from two experiences: a trip to New Orleans where he was inspired by the city’s funk and soul music scene and a trip to New York where he watched the city’s Sleep No More immersive play. He took the idea back to Brassroots District’s co-creator Andrew Leib and formed the show’s first iteration during the COVID pandemic as an outdoor show in a parking lot pegged to a fictional venue.

“ The concept of this was — the year’s 1973. Brassroots District is this hot band in L.A. on the rise,’” Herstand said. “We get our big break opening for Sly and the Family Stone at the fabulous Orbit Arena in L.A. But we're not opening inside the arena. We're opening the parking lot tailgate hang outside the arena, but it's our big break because a record label’s coming to check us out.”

Transforming into the 70’s & what theater-goers can expect

Audience members attending this latest iteration of the show are encouraged to dress in 70’s style threads. When they arrive at Catch One, they’re asked to put their phones in black bags to avoid using them during the show. (Don’t worry, the phones will still be on your person).

From there, patrons enter the venue and meet “Gem,” who guides the experience of the show. The show, directed by DeMone Seraphin, engages people to participate in activities all throughout the venue, including group dances led by fan club leader “Cassie the Brassie,” backstage breathing exercises, call and response in songs and a soul train line on the dance floor.

The music is performed by a nine-piece funk band led by co-lead singers “Copper Jones” (played by Herstand) and “Ursa Major” (played by Celeste Butler Clayton). And the music pays homage to popular 70’s bands like Sly and the Family Stone.

 ”My whole family definitely is stuck in the seventies, so it was really nice to come. Like I grew up with this type of music," said audience member Brandon Lipsett.

Meanwhile throughout the night, different storylines show tension on the dance floor between the two label owners, the band and many side characters.

At a recent performance, before Brassroots District came onstage, LAist talked with “Barry Baker,” a reporter embedded within the show who’s looking to uncover a big story brewing throughout the night all on his vintage Sony tape recorder.

“ There's a lot of big personalities in the band, so I'm hoping it goes smoothly for them,” he said, alluding to the tension between the record labels throughout the night. “But if it doesn't, it's kind of good for us.”

The storylines all play out simultaneously, which Brassroots District organizer Herstand explains are by design.

 ”[It] is a reason for you to come back because there's no way that you'll be able to pick up all the different scenes and storylines just attending one time,” Herstand said.

References to Los Angeles

Beyond historical tidbits on Richard Nixon and Vietnam that dominated the news in 1974, characters in the show make references to the Southland, including the Malibu Pier and Crenshaw Boulevard.

“ It's very important to us to honor the tradition of Los Angeles, of music, of cultures,” Herstand said, “like what is happening in Los Angeles in 1974, politically, socioeconomically, culturally, racially, all of that… And then the allusions to the bands that are coming up in L.A., the clubs in L.A. like the Troubadour, these institutions of Los Angeles. So, because we love L.A. so much and L.A. is our home now, we wanna honor all of that and really pay tribute to the history.”

And the character of Gem pays homage to Catch One’s original owner Jewel Thais-Williams, who was known for helming the L.A. nightclub as a safe space for the Black LGBTQ+ community.

 ”We wanna respect and continue the legacy of the space that we're in. We believe that [in] this venue, the walls can speak and they're alive,” Herstand said. “And so there is a bit of her legacy that is written into this current script with Catch One.”

Brassroots District: LA ‘74 runs until March 28. Learn more about the show here.

We're going to wake up to a chilly and cloudy morning, courtesy of yesterday's winter storm. There's still a chance that some light snow will dust lower elevations, including the Grapevine for this morning.

Once the sun moves in, temperatures will warm up to mid-50s to around 60 degrees from the coasts to the valleys. The Inland Empire could see frost and dense fog in the morning, followed by temperatures from 50 to 57 degrees.

The warmest area will be the Coachella Valley, where highs will reach up to 66 degrees. Meanwhile in the Antelope Valley, it's going to feel crisp with daytime highs from 41 degrees to 50 degrees.