Orange County is still tallying votes, but overall, the results are clear — O.C. is more purple (purple-er?) than ever. LAist talked to political scientists and analyzed trends to come up with five big takeaways from the November election results in this political middle-ground. Here goes:
O.C. is the purplest of purple
In some of the biggest races, ballots are nearly evenly split between the Democrat and Republican candidate. It appears some voters also "split tickets." For example, as of last count, a slim majority wanted Democrat Kamala Harris to represent them in the White House and Republican Steve Garvey to rep the state in the Senate. Garvey has also gotten more votes than President-elect Donald Trump.
This kind of ticket-splitting, among other factors, makes O.C. one the purplest counties in the U.S., said Jon Gould, the dean of the School of Social Ecology at the University of California, Irvine. Gould said O.C., with its shifting demographics, and especially its large population of non-white, college-educated voters, is a glimpse of where the nation is headed.
“What you're seeing here that I think we will all be looking at is a harbinger for the future of the rest of America,” he said.
Little Saigon upset?
The congressional district that includes the largest Vietnamese diaspora community outside of Vietnam could have its first Vietnamese American representative — and a Democrat, at that. Derek Tran has been steadily widening his still-miniscule lead against Republican incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel.
As of Saturday night, Tran was ahead by 545 votes. The lead is especially notable because O.C.’s Vietnamese community has, until recently, been considered reliably Republican, and because Steel won against her previous Democratic challenger, in 2022, by more than 10,000 votes.
If Tran’s lead holds, it could be an indication that Asian American voters in O.C. are moving toward the political center or even left, Gould said. Several other factors could be at play in Tran’s lead, Gould said, including that Tran is Vietnamese American (Steel is Korean American) and has roots in the community — his parents, like most of their generation in Little Saigon, fled the Communist regime and settled in O.C.
Political consultant Mike Madrid noted that Tran is getting a large percentage of votes even in some previously “hardcore” GOP strongholds in Little Saigon. “That's, like, crazy,” he said.
Madrid said it shows that ethnicity and corresponding political leanings are not static.
“Ethnicity changes generationally,” he said.
Non-U.S. citizen voting bombed in Santa Ana
Among the closest watched ballot initiatives in O.C. was Measure DD, which would have allowed non-U.S. citizens in Santa Ana to vote in city elections. Had it passed, Santa Ana would have become the first city in California to allow non-U.S. citizens to vote in its municipal elections. (Non-U.S. citizens in San Francisco and Oakland can vote in school board elections.)
It was, in part, a test case of the Santa Ana City Council’s increasingly liberal agenda, and of Latino voters’ willingness to extend voting rights to their non-citizen neighbors (the city’s population is nearly 80% Latino/Latina, according to census data).
The measure was defeated, with nearly 60% of the votes. Madrid said the results were simultaneously “jaw-dropping” and not all that surprising.
“Latino voter attitudes on immigration are profoundly, profoundly different than they were a generation ago,” he said.
Whereas previous generations of Latino voters were made up of many more foreign-born, naturalized citizens, today, most Latino voters in O.C. were born in the U.S. and have different concerns. “They're not animated at all by the immigration issue, they're residents,” he said.
Local tax hikes won big
All of the school bonds and the majority of local tax hikes on the November ballot passed with comfortable margins. Gould said the results show the county today is a far cry from the tax-allergic Republican stronghold of old.
“Orange County is not the county you all think it is,” he said, sounding a bit exasperated. Plus, he said approving of taxes at the local level is different than at the state or federal level.
“These are things that matter to people in their day-to-day lives here in the county and it shows that people are willing to spend money to improve the quality of life where they live,” he said.
Madrid called O.C.’s anti-tax reputation “a relic of Reagan country, of Orange County in the 80s,” he said. Plus, he noted, President-elect Donald Trump “ran on the largest tariff, meaning tax, increase in the history of the country,” referring to Trump’s promise to tax Chinese imports. “And he won overwhelmingly with Republicans,” Madrid said. “So the idea that Republicans won't vote for taxes … those days are gone.”
Republicans solidified their grip on Huntington Beach
Huntington Beach voters appear to have ousted three incumbents in favor of a staunchly conservative slate of newcomers. Candidates Chad Williams, Butch Twining, and Don Kennedy — self-dubbed the “HB3” — will replace the city council’s left-leaning, minority block: Dan Kalmick, Natalie Moser and Rhonda Bolton.
They’ll join the four-person council majority that, since elected in 2022, has banned flying the Pride flag on city property, restricted children’s access to library books about puberty, voted to require ID at the polls, and repeatedly clashed with the state over housing law.
Republicans make up 41% of registered voters in the city.
Huntington Beach is the largest city in O.C. that doesn’t have district elections, meaning members are elected through citywide votes (a practice the city is getting sued for in an effort to force it to switch to district elections). This election, voters had the option of choosing three out of eight candidates.
The crowded field meant there were multiple ways to “split” the vote — which is when usually smaller or similar candidates draw support away from major ones, making it more challenging to win. At last count, the “HB3” members had a little over half of total votes combined. Williams had the highest percentage at 19.33%.
This is the city’s first major election since the council significantly upped the campaign contribution limit in local races — from $620 to now $5,500 for individual donors. Huntington Beach already had a conservative majority on the council, but now it looks like it’ll be full-steam ahead on what Madrid described as “culture war” issues. You’ll likely see less, if any, split council votes.
Apart from housing and voter access, there’s also the yet-to-start parent-guardian review board for children’s library books (with a related lawsuit there), and another challenge to the state’s lawprohibiting schools from requiring teachers to disclose a kids’ gender identity to their parents.
