This story was reported for K Onda KQED, a monthly newsletter focused on the Bay Area’s Latinx community. Click here to subscribe.
The upcoming gubernatorial election in California has been characterized as “quiet” and “sleepy” because the frontrunner, Xavier Becerra, has a very high chance of winning.
But for Latines, this election is slated to be one of the most historic and monumental elections ever: The largest state in the nation with the largest Latine population is about to elect a Latino governor for the first time. Becerra’s election is a big deal.
“Having someone in this highest office signals a potential turning point, a potential watershed moment, for which the future will tell whether this is a one-time thing or whether this opens the door for many more folks,” said G. Cristina Mora, sociology professor and co-director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. “The historical significance, the symbolism of it is incredibly important.”
The likelihood that Becerra will become the next governor of California comes at a time when Latines have made gains in the state’s political landscape, but also when the state faces major challenges — from standing up to President Donald Trump’s attacks, to more people struggling with the rising cost of living and increased risks of wildfires.
From left, gubernatorial candidates Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton, during CNN’s California Gubernatorial Debate at CNN’s studio in Burbank on Sept. 30, 2026. The debate was moderated by CNN anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. (Grace Widyatmadja/CNN)
In America’s history, only 11 Latines have served as governor — ever. There have been three Black and Asian governors each, and women have only served as governor 44 times. Those numbers are quite paltry when considering that more than 2,300 white men have served as governor since our nation was founded. (Romualdo Pacheco served as governor of California for less than a year in 1875, but was elevated from lieutenant governor to finish out a term and was not elected.)
The 68-year-old Becerra came into the race with more than three decades of experience, serving in the California State Assembly, Congress, as California’s attorney general, and as the United States Secretary of Health and Human Services under the Biden Administration.
He highlights his upbringing as a working-class child of Mexican immigrants who forged a reputation in politics as a policy nerd, Mora said.
“Should the voters of California elect Xavier Becerra, he would be the first Latino governor in over a century — that within itself is monumental,” said Christian Arana, vice president of civic power and policy with the San Francisco-based Latino Community Foundation.
Latinos, Arana said, making up 40% of California’s population, comprise the second largest voting block in the state with nearly 9 million eligible voters — and contribute more than a trillion dollars to the state’s GDP. And, let’s not forget that half of the children in California are Latine.
“To have somebody potentially look like you and also share the experiences that you might have is pretty significant,” Arana told me.
Becerra’s ascent to frontrunner seemed unlikely before he won the June primary, beating out a crowded field of Democratic candidates. Former East Bay Rep. Eric Swalwell was considered the top contender, but he suspended his campaign in April amid allegations of sexual assault.
Many of Swalwell’s supporters moved to line up behind Becerra, propelling him from a long shot into a position to make history.
“Imagine the positive impact that will have on the identities and aspirations of Latino/a kids throughout the State of California,” Hayward Mayor Mark Salinas wrote in an April Facebook post.
Sen. Monique Limón listens during an informational hearing by the Senate Transportation Subcommittee on LOSSAN Rail Corridor Resiliency in San Clemente, California, on Monday, Dec. 11, 2023. LOSSAN is the Los Angeles-San Luis Obispo-San Diego rail corridor. (Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images)
Becerra’s rise happens at a time when three other Latines currently hold prominent roles: Monique Limón serves as the Senate President pro Tempore, Robert Rivas is speaker of the state Assembly and Alex Padilla serves as U.S. senator.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that Latinos have collectively arrived in state politics, said Sonja Díaz, a civil rights attorney, policy adviser and political expert. But it does show that we are not sitting on the sidelines.
On her Substack, “Unseen Fortitude,” Díaz wrote, “Representation matters. But representation without any accountability for doing (hacer) and delivering (cumplir) is merely symbolism. Democracies need more than symbolism, and Latino leaders are tired of being calm, quiet and told to wait.”
In the 1990s, California voters passed Proposition 187, a law that would have denied public services to undocumented immigrants.
It was ultimately ruled unconstitutional and never implemented, but that experience sparked a surge of Latino participation in politics in California, Díaz said. Still, the Democratic Party has depended on Latino voters in California without doing enough to elevate Latino candidates.
For Becerra to become the likely winner is “a historical feat because of the willful neglect of both major parties to integrate Latino candidates and Latino interest in places like California,” Díaz told me. “It is because of the infrastructure and the systemic decision-making that Latino leaders made in the ’80s and ’90s, we are where we are today. And, I think that that is huge.”
Political parties and candidates need to do a better job engaging with Latino voters, Arana said. A recent LCF survey of Latino voters in California found that 40% had not been contacted by any candidate or party for the upcoming election.
At the same time, Latine voters in California tend to have lower turnout than other groups — 47% of Latinos are considered likely voters compared with 54% of Asian Americans, 54% of African Americans and 65% of whites, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.
Arana said many voters don’t show up at the polls because they don’t feel like their vote will make a difference or that politicians care about them.
The three experts I talked to all agreed that for Becerra to not just represent Latinos, but actually deliver results, he needs to address issues that affect Californians of all backgrounds — namely the lack of affordability and rising cost of living, but also concerns about climate change and the threat of AI eliminating jobs.
Becerra has been criticized for not making specific promises, but has talked about the need to build more housing, make healthcare more accessible, reduce homelessness, prepare for natural disasters and fight the current presidential administration that has been hostile toward California and immigrant communities.
Christian Arana, vice president of policy at the Latino Community Foundation, on Political Breakdown. (Guy Marzorati/KQED)
“There is an expectation that he is going to deliver, right? Because he’s one of us,” Arana said.
“At the end of the day, the governor of California has to operate in a system. He’s one of many actors in California. The other thing to consider is the final two years of the Trump presidency. We have yet to see what else may be coming down the pipeline.”
California governors propose a state budget, Díaz said, which is the principal way to influence policy and programs that can directly impact the cost of living and quality of life issues that many Latinos care about.
“There needs to be rebudgeting that ensures that the material conditions, the social, economic and cultural material conditions of households on the ground are improved,” she said. “There’s a myriad of things where the next governor can and will make a difference.”
