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The Brief

The most important stories for you to know today
  • Some deaf Californians question what's fair
    People sit in a row in front of desktops, separated with dividers.
    The Sacramento Works job training and resources center in Sacramento on April 23, 2024. The center provides help and resources to job seekers, business and employers in Sacramento County.

    Topline:

    Federal and state law require businesses to accommodate employees with disabilities, to an extent, but deaf people question whether employers are doing enough.

    Why it matters: For deaf adults, finding work isn’t easy. Either they take a position that requires little person-to-person communication, or their employers must hire a sign language interpreter, which can cost a business more than a hundred dollars an hour. Once hired, some deaf adults say they struggle to attain promotions or feel a sense of belonging at work, especially when there are few other deaf people around.

    The backstory: State and federal disability law require companies to make “reasonable” accommodations for employees who are deaf. California goes further than federal law by offering a more expansive definition of disability, but the definition of reasonable still depends on the size of the employer. Small businesses can argue that the hourly cost of hiring a sign language interpreter is an unreasonable burden. Large employers, such as the government or big companies, are expected to shoulder the cost of interpreters, both at the interview stage and upon hire, said Andy Imparato, executive director of Disability Rights California, a nonprofit organization. Compliance is “all over the place,” he said.

    Lisa Peterson interviewed first at Kohl’s, then at TJ Maxx and Target. She applied for jobs at Raley’s, Safeway, Applebee’s, and Olive Garden, too. Once, she advanced to a second interview at the Cheesecake Factory, but like the rest, no job offer followed.

    Peterson is 60 years old, with white hair that falls just below her shoulders. She holds her hands near her face, wiggling her fingers as she pauses to recall months spent searching for an entry-level job.

    For deaf adults like Peterson, finding work isn’t easy. Either they take a position that requires little person-to-person communication, or their employers must hire a sign language interpreter, which can cost a business more than a hundred dollars an hour. Once hired, some deaf adults say they struggle to attain promotions or feel a sense of belonging at work, especially when there are few other deaf people around.

    “I’ve been really just trying to prove that I can work,” said Peterson, speaking through an American Sign Language interpreter earlier this year. “…It’s been a year and a half that I’ve been doing this, and I’m trying to figure out what’s wrong with me. Is there something wrong with me? Is there something wrong with them?”

    State and federal disability law require companies to make “reasonable” accommodations for employees who are deaf. California goes further than federal law by offering a more expansive definition of disability, but the definition of reasonable still depends on the size of the employer. Small businesses can argue that the hourly cost of hiring a sign language interpreter is an unreasonable burden. Large employers, such as the government or big companies, are expected to shoulder the cost of interpreters, both at the interview stage and upon hire, said Andy Imparato, executive director of Disability Rights California, a nonprofit organization.

    Compliance is “all over the place,” he said.

    Working behind the scenes

    The last time Peterson searched for a job was 1984, right after she had dropped out of community college. With the help of NorCal Services for the Deaf and Hard-of-Hearing, a Northern California nonprofit, she found a job in the state controller’s office, doing data entry. She stayed 18 years, until her daughter was diagnosed with diabetes. In 2020, Peterson decided it was time to work again and took classes at NorCal Services for the Deaf. 

    To help job seekers like Peterson, California’s Employment Development Department contracts with NorCal Services for the Deaf to place career counselors within the state’s publicly run job centers. For over a year, Peterson went to a Sacramento job center near her home in Fair Oaks, often going twice a week, to work on her resume, apply for jobs, or “just keep the ball rolling,” she said.

    She had about 12 interviews, many of which she said went well. Employers are responsible for providing interpreters at interviews, but in Peterson’s case, the state covered the costs.

    “My ideal job would be retail,” she said, explaining that she wants something that allows her to be around people, such as hanging or organizing clothes in a store. But in interviews, she said, employers tried to steer her into backroom roles.

     A female-presenting figure with light skin tone and blonde hair stands in front of reflective glass doors holding a green folder
    Lisa Peterson outside of the Sacramento Works job training and resources center in Sacramento on April 23, 2024.
    (
    Miguel Gutierrez Jr.
    /
    CalMatters
    )

    Ryan Gallagher, an Employment Development Department program coordinator, was responsible for helping Peterson secure each interview. Speaking through a sign language interpreter at his Sacramento office, he said businesses often place deaf employees in warehouses, back kitchens, or in data-entry positions that have limited face-to-face communication. “They don’t want to give the client that opportunity because they don’t want to spend that much money on an interpreter,” he said.

    In the past 12 months, he has had roughly 60 clients, about half of whom have found jobs. Most go on to work at Amazon, FedEx, or GoodWill, he said.

    Over time, Peterson started considering other positions outside of retail. In April, after a year and a half of searching, Peterson accepted a part-time job at FedEx, where she helps put packages together in a warehouse and earns about $18 an hour.

    “I’m happy with the work I’ve accepted at FedEx,” she said. “There’s really no time to socialize. It’s pretty busy there.”

    Neither working, nor looking for work

    In a 2007 survey of deaf youth across the country, more than three-quarters said they would probably or definitely graduate from college, and nearly everyone said they ultimately wanted to get a paying job.

    Those dreams are statistically unlikely in California. Roughly 22% of deaf adults 25 and older have a college degree in the state, compared to about 37% for the “hearing” population, according to a recent study by the National Center for the Deaf. The unemployment rate in California is about the same for deaf people as it is for the hearing population, but there’s a catch: The unemployment rate only considers those who are seeking work.

    In California, roughly 44% of deaf adults are neither working nor looking for work — compared to about 26% of hearing people. Some deaf adults are in school or taking care of children, as Peterson did for years. Others receive Social Security Income, a government program to help low-income adults with disabilities, or don’t work for other reasons. The study only includes people ages 16 to 64.

    “It’s easier to say ‘Deaf people don’t want to work’ than to try and address the larger systemic barriers at play,” said Carrie Lou Bloom, an author of the study.

    In her other research, she has tried to understand what those barriers are. “If parents believed their kid could go to college, get a degree, and work independently,” she said, “their kid would be much more likely to achieve these goals.”

    It’s the same trend for children who aren’t deaf. The difference, said Bloom: “Deaf youth just have more hurdles in front of them and less access to resources, role models, mentors.”

    A female-presenting person with dark skin tone wearing a shirt that says "Ohlone College ASL Club" leans on a tree
    Drez Brownridge, a Deaf studies major, at Ohlone College in Fremont on June 17, 2024. Brownridge previously worked at Amazon loading boxes and storing goods. They said they struggled to communicate with their boss and access promotions at work.
    (
    Emily Steinberger
    /
    CalMatters
    )

    For Drez Brownridge, those hurdles began at birth. Brownridge, who uses they/them pronouns and communicated through an interpreter, said they grew up in Costa Rica with grandparents who don’t use or understand sign language. To communicate with their family, Brownridge used gestures, sent notes back and forth, and tried wearing hearing aids, often in vain. They first enrolled at Modesto Junior College in 2016 but dropped out during the COVID-19 pandemic after failing to pass English four times.

    For decades, Brownridge lived on Social Security Income, receiving around $600 a month. They were allowed to work while receiving government benefits but their income, including Social Security, could not exceed $2,000 a month.

    It wasn’t enough. “Especially in California, $2,000 a month isn’t going to get you very far,” they said. “You’re not going to be able to buy a car or a house, or conduct your life, just on Social Security Income.”

    Who gets the promotion?

    For those who do find work, other obstacles arise. “We often see people talking about feeling a sense of satisfaction from work, being a productive member of the community, feeling like they’re making a difference,” Bloom said. “Deaf people may not have these feelings about work, if they’re working in environments where they are constantly fighting for access, advocating for themselves, being left behind, being passed over for promotions.”

    After leaving Modesto Junior College, Brownridge got a job at Amazon, where they made around $17 an hour. They worked nights, loading boxes and later, storing goods. They used their cell phone to type out notes to their manager and to other employees who didn’t understand sign language, but they struggled to build close work relationships.

    Brownridge repeatedly applied for new positions at Amazon, hoping to make at least $25, but they never moved up. “I was disappointed at what I perceived as a barrier,” they said, “… And it wasn’t just me. There were a few other deaf employees as well that were facing the same frustrations, where they had worked there maybe five or 10 years, but just couldn’t move up.”

    A spokesperson for Amazon, Sam Stephenson, said the company offers career development for all of its employers, as well as specialized services for those who need it.

    If an employer declines to offer promotion opportunities because of a disability, it could qualify as discrimination, though it can be difficult to prove or find legal resources to help, said Imparato, with Disability Rights California. “It’s hard for an individual to go to these enforcement agencies.”

    With limited staff and a high volume of complaints, California’s Civil Rights Department is forced to triage cases, Imparato said. In 2022, the department had more than 300 staff processing nearly 26,000 potential discrimination cases, according to the most recent data. Over the course of the year, the department reached just over 650 settlements, though many other cases used private lawyers or fell outside of the state’s legal jurisdiction.

    Brownridge never complained about the lack of a promotion, they said. Instead, they left Amazon in 2022 and re-enrolled at community college, this time at Ohlone College, where they now major in Deaf studies. Attending a school with a large population of deaf students colored how they look back on their career at Amazon. “It wasn’t until I got into the Deaf community,” they said, “that I was told that it was my right to go for those jobs, that I had a right to succeed just like anybody else.”

    Adam Echelman covers California’s community colleges in partnership with Open Campus, a nonprofit newsroom focused on higher education.

    Financial support for this story was provided by the Smidt and Irvine foundations.

  • Consumers to pay for spike in cargo fuel cost
    A green cargo container ship is docked. A crane stands above the ship and looms over the water front.
    A crane stands above the Ever Macro cargo container ship docked at the Port of Los Angeles on Sept. 13, 2025.

    Topline:

    The Iran war has caused shipping in the Middle East, Europe and Asia to back up. But the Port of L.A., which mostly deals with trade from China, Japan and Vietnam, is not so far being affected. As cargo ship fuel cost rises, however, consumers will likely end up paying.

    Why it matters: A disruption in trade through the massive SoCal port would affect hundreds of thousands of jobs in the five-county Southern California region. Port of L.A. trade accounts for 17% of all waterborne container international trade into the U.S.

    Why no effect: The war is affecting shipping in the Middle East, Europe and Asia, but the Pacific Ocean trade to the U.S. is so lucrative that companies are making sure container ships are not delayed.

    The backstory: Ports in the UAE, Oman and Bahrain shut down after the U.S. and Israel began attacking Iran. And that’s slowed trade to countries in the region. It’s also caused the cost of fuel to spike, which will likely be passed on to consumers.

    Go deeper: The war with Iran shocks the global economy

    In his monthly briefing Thursday, the leader of the massive Port of L.A. complex said the port shutdowns in the Persian Gulf and slowdowns in European and Asian ports caused by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran are not rippling to Southern California.

    “We right now don't see any of that congestion happening, but it just may,” said Port of L.A. Executive Director Gene Seroka. “No one has the answer at this point in time of how long this war is going to continue and for what duration the Strait [of Hormuz] will remain closed.”

    Shipping across the Pacific Ocean to U.S. ports on the West Coast, Seroka said, is so lucrative that companies are making sure container ships are not delayed. Most of the trade through the port complex is with China, Japan and Vietnam.

    “I don't think you're going to see a significant impact on the West Coast,” said Ron Widdows, a former ocean carrier CEO who joined Seroka during the briefing.

    The war with Iran will mark its second week Saturday. The conflict’s economic upheaval has upended politics and economies in the Middle East. European and Asian countries are feeling the ripple effects as trade along the Strait of Hormuz has slowed.

    Southern California consumers will feel the effect on the pocketbook

    The war’s effects on rising prices at gasoline stations in the U.S. is also leading to price increases in cargo ship fuel, known as “bunker.”

    “Those bunker prices effectively doubling right now are passed on almost immediately, and in some cases with a 30-day notice, to shippers, [and] they'll be passed on to the cost of those goods,” Seroka said.

    For now, container volume at the Port of L.A. is good, with 812,000 container units moving in and out of the L.A. port last month.

    “That's about 3% higher than last year and 11% above the five-year average for February, both positive signs,” Seroka said.

    A disruption in trade through the massive SoCal port would affect hundreds of thousands of jobs in the five-county Southern California region. Port of L.A. trade accounts for 17% of all waterborne container international trade into the U.S.

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  • Mounting pressure from labor, budget talks
    A bald man with medium light skin tone, a moustache and goatee
    When Andres Chait made his first public appearance as acting superintendent before a closed board meeting March 2, his name was printed on folded cardstock. By the board's meeting Tuesday, his nameplate matched the rest of the board’s.

    Topline:

    As the federal investigation related to Los Angeles Unified’s superintendent continues, the district’s acting leader and the elected board face key decisions about the district’s finances and negotiations with unions poised to strike.

    The backstory: LAUSD’s board voted unanimously to place Carvalho on paid administrative leave two days after FBI agents searched his home and office in late February. The reason for the searches is unknown. While Carvalho has declared his innocence and expressed a desire to return to his job, the district says an investigation is ongoing.

    One of many challenges: Contract negotiations with the unions representing teachers and school support staff have stalled. Members of both United Teachers Los Angeles and SEIU Local 99 voted overwhelmingly in January to give their leaders the power to call a strike. The unions plan to hold a rally in downtown Los Angeles on Wednesday.

    Keep reading ... to learn about other challenges.

    As the federal investigation related to Los Angeles Unified’s superintendent continues, the district’s acting leader and the elected board face key decisions about the district’s finances and negotiations with unions poised to strike.

    This on top of the day-to-day tasks of running a school district that employs 83,000 people and enrolls more than 400,000 students across more than 1,000 schools.

    “This removal of [Superintendent Alberto] Carvalho, which is understandable under the circumstances, comes at the very worst time for the system,” said Pedro Noguera, dean of USC’s Rossier School of Education.

    LAUSD’s board voted unanimously to place Carvalho on paid administrative leave two days after FBI agents searched his home and office in late February. The reason for the searches is unknown. A DOJ spokesperson said the agency has a court-authorized warrant but declined to provide additional details.

    While Carvalho has declared his innocence and expressed a desire to return to his job, the district says an investigation is ongoing.

    Which means, for now, longtime administrator Andres Chait will continue leading the country’s second largest school district through a series of pressing challenges.

    What does an acting superintendent do?

    This is not the first time in recent history an acting superintendent has led LAUSD.

    Vivian Ekchian stepped in to lead the district in 2017 when then-Superintendent Michelle King was out on medical leave; King stepped down altogether the following year. Ekchian previously served as associate superintendent and, before that, an elementary school teacher, principal, administrator and chief labor negotiator.

    “The role of the acting superintendent, from my perspective, is not different from the actual superintendency,” Ekchian said. “The work needs to get done, and it doesn't stop.”

    When asked about the acting superintendent’s decision-making power compared to the permanent position, a district spokesperson wrote in a statement that “acting superintendent is a board-appointed position and carries all responsibilities and authority afforded the position of district superintendent.”

    Ekchian said the superintendent’s decisions are guided by the district’s existing strategic plan, consultation with other senior leaders and community partners.

    “If there's an urgent matter, like a fire or something that requires immediate decision-making, systems and structures are in place for organizations and departments to know what to do next with immediate guidance from the superintendent,” Ekchian said.  ”All decisions aren't the same, and the urgency is dictated by the matter at hand.”

    LAUSD Superintendents (1990-present)

    • Bill Antón (July 1990-Sept. 1992)
    • Sidney Thompson (Oct. 1992-June 1997)
    • Ruben Zacarias (July 1997-Jan. 2000)
    • Ramón Cortines* (Jan. 2000-June 2000)
    • Roy Romer (July 2000-Oct. 2006)
    • David Brewer (Nov. 2006-Dec. 2008)
    • Ramon Cortines* (Jan. 2009-Apr. 2011)
    • John Deasy (Apr. 2011-Oct. 2014)
    • Ramon Cortines* (Oct. 2014-Dec. 2015)
    • Michelle King (Jan. 2016-Sept. 2017)
    • Vivian Ekchian* (Sept. 2017-May 2018)
    • Austin Beutner (May 2018-June 2021)
    • Megan Reilly* (July 2021-February 2022)
    • Alberto Carvalho (February 2022- present)

    * Denotes interim

    Like Ekchian, Chait rose through the ranks from teacher to administrator at LAUSD over nearly three decades.

    The responsibilities of his most recent role, chief of school operations, included overseeing school safety, athletics and the district’s office of emergency management. The salary for the chief of school operations position is $278,205 annually (the district did not indicate whether his salary has changed).

    Since being named acting superintendent, Chait has appeared on the district’s social media, but the district has declined to make him available to LAist or other media outlets for interviews.

    In his first verbal statement to the public on Monday, March 2 before a closed board meeting, Chait said his priority as acting superintendent is to keep the district focused.

    “We remain committed to academic excellence and student wellbeing,” he said. “Our core values remain unchanged. I know transitions can create uncertainty, but our district is strong.”

    Mounting pressure from labor

    On Tuesday, the board approved labor agreements with the unions representing school police, support staff supervisors, office personnel and other classified staff.

    But contract negotiations with the district's largest unions, those that represent teachers and school support staff, have stalled. Members of both United Teachers Los Angeles and SEIU Local 99 voted overwhelmingly in January to give their leaders the power to call a strike.

    A room with nine people seated at a dais and dozens standing in the audience. Several wear purple shirts with yellow lettering that says SEIU.
    An IT worker and a gardener, both in positions targeted for reductions, were among the union members that addressed the LAUSD board.
    (
    Mariana Dale
    /
    LAist
    )

    “ A strike is always the last resort,” said Maria Nichols, president of Associated Administrators of Los Angeles, the union representing principals, on Tuesday. “None of us — AALA/Teamsters, UTLA, SEIU — want to go on a strike and be disruptive for our students, our families, our school communities, especially at a time when LAUSD is already navigating uncertainty.”

    More than a hundred school support staff and other union members filled the chambers Tuesday as Nichols and other representatives addressed the board.

    Alex Orozco, UTLA’s secondary vice president, told the board that negotiations were “not anywhere close” to being settled. (The following day, the union announced the most recent step of negotiations, “fact-finding,” ended without an agreement.)

    In past negotiations, the district’s superintendent has been a lightning rod for the union’s criticisms. In 2018, for example, UTLA weaponized then-Superintendent Austin Beutner’s calendar ahead of a strike.

    The unions’ approach to Chait has been restrained so far.

    “ The problem our members are facing, and students, is a systemic issue. It's not an individual,” said Max Arias, executive director of SEIU Local 99, in an interview with LAist. “We have to continue to attack the system, but I'm trying to hold out some hope that [the acting] superintendent will, you know, understand what we need to get done.”

    The unions plan to hold a rally in downtown Los Angeles on Wednesday.

    At Tuesday’s board meeting, Chait described a first week on the job spent visiting with teachers, principals, students, support staff and labor partners.

    “As someone who's been a teacher, principal, held a number of roles in the district, I understand that you are indeed the backbone of this district,” Chait said. “The work simply just does not happen at schools or at offices without you. My commitment to you is to always come from a place of transparency, honesty and dialogue.”

    Cutting back on spending

    Part of the labor negotiation challenges are related to the district’s financial constraints. In February, a divided board voted to send layoff notices to more than 650 employees as part of a plan to cut spending.

    Even as California is poised to fund schools at record high levels, Los Angeles Unified and other districts have grappled with increased costs.

    For example, LAUSD hired more staff to support students during the pandemic, and now the federal relief dollars that initially funded those positions are gone. For the last two years, the district has relied on reserves to backfill a multi-billion-dollar deficit.

    Noguera, with USC, said the budget is the district’s most immediate priority.

    “There's no easy solutions,” he said, “and I think that's part of the reason why they've held off for a while on making tough decisions.”

    The financial report presented Tuesday indicates that the district will continue to spend more money than it brings in over the next three years. Still to be determined are how the outstanding labor negotiations and the state budget will affect LAUSD’s spending plan for next year.

    Defending immigrant families

    Since the start of President Donald Trump’s second term, Los Angeles educators — and those around the country— have said the increase in immigration enforcement actions contributed to lower attendance and fewer students enrolled in school this year.

    Thousands of Los Angeles Unified students have walked out in recent months to protest the Trump administration’s militarized crackdown on immigrants, detainment of children and violence against U.S. citizens protesting the raids.

    A teenage girl, surrounded by other teenagers, holds up a sign that says "We are skipping our lessons to teach u one."
    Thousands of students from schools across Los Angeles walked out Wednesday, Feb 4, 2026 in peaceful protest of the Trump Administration’s immigration policies.
    (
    Mariana Dale
    /
    LAist
    )

    In response, the district has expanded summer school and transportation options, distributed “know your rights” information and asked the federal government not to conduct immigration enforcement actions near schools. Teachers and community organizations have also volunteered to patrol schools before and after school.

    On Tuesday, the board instructed staff to review contracts with outside vendors and evaluate whether they support or enable immigration enforcement and detention.

    LAUSD immigration resources

    Los Angeles Unified School District offers resources for families concerned about immigration through its website.

    Families who need assistance regarding immigration, health, wellness, or housing can call LAUSD's Family Hotline: (213) 443-1300

    Chait, whose own family immigrated from Chile in 1983, said the district’s work to support immigrant families will not change during his tenure.

    “Please know we stand with you,” Chait said Tuesday. “We will support you. We will ensure that our campuses are safe, secure and welcoming environments for our students and staff.”

  • Gears up for Shakespeare performance
    Two men stand and look at a binder containing a work of William Shakespeare. There is a window behind them and some wooden chairs.
    Aaron Lyons (L) and Jim Lyons (R) go over a piece from the Shakespeare canon

    Topline:

    A theater project bringing the world of William Shakespeare to local veterans is gearing up for its first public performance this Sunday.

    The details: For the past year, a group of about a dozen veterans have met at the West Los Angeles VA campus to study the work of the Bard of Avon. The project is a partnership between the Shakespeare Center of Los Angeles and The Veterans Collective. The group is led by trained theater artist — and fellow veteran — Aaron Lyons.

    The impact: Lyons is a longtime staple of L.A.’s theater community and is a member of the Antaeus Theatre Company. He said seeing this group express themselves through these timeless works has been inspiring. “Helping them grasp Shakespeare, not only intellectually but emotionally, has been one of the most uplifting experiences of my life,” Lyons said.

    Read on... for more on how to watch the performance.

    A theater project bringing the world of William Shakespeare to local veterans is gearing up for its first public performance on Sunday.

    For the past year, a group of about a dozen veterans have met at the West Los Angeles VA campus to study the work of the Bard of Avon.

    The project is a partnership between the Shakespeare Center of Los Angeles and The Veterans Collective. The group is led by trained theater artist — and fellow veteran — Aaron Lyons.

    Lyons is a longtime staple of L.A.’s theater community and is a member of the Antaeus Theatre Company. He said seeing this group express themselves through these timeless works has been inspiring.

    “Helping them grasp Shakespeare, not only intellectually but emotionally, has been one of the most uplifting experiences of my life,” Lyons said.

    Ranging in age from their 30s to their 70s, the group includes veterans of the Vietnam War and most of its members live at the West LA VA Campus, Lyons said.

    The actor, who’s performed in more than half of Shakespeare’s plays, said part of his goal with the project was to demystify Shakespeare’s canon for veterans who might not have studied it since grade school.

    “Watching this group of men and women understand it and be able to connect with it in ways that they didn’t think possible was really, really inspiring,” Lyons said.

    The group will perform an original work called “Shakespeare Night Live” at 3 p.m. Sunday, March 15, at McCadden Place Theatre. The performance weaves through several Shakespearian monologues and scenes.

    Tickets are $10 and available at the Shakespeare Center of Los Angeles website.

  • How will the Iran war affect your travel plans

    Topline:

    The war in Iran is rattling the aviation industry, from flight cancellations to rising costs for jet fuel. So if you're planning to travel this spring or summer, should you grab a ticket now, or wait?

    Go ahead and book: It's generally recommended to buy international flights further in advance than domestic trips. But in the current circumstances, Sean Cudahy, an aviation reporter at The Points Guy website says he would go ahead and book even domestic flights. His advice is a sign of how the Middle East conflict is rippling outward, affecting prices and itineraries around the world, beyond the thousands of travelers who were stuck after the war forced a barrage of flight cancellations.

    What do the airlines say?: The war's effect on travel was sudden and striking, resulting in the cancellation of more than 46,000 flights in and out of the Middle East from Feb. 28 — when the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran — to March 11, according to Cirium, the aviation analytics company. As they absorb higher fuel costs, airlines could adjust prices higher across the board, or they might tuck an increase into premium fares, where they'll be less noticeable, Cudahy of The Points Guy says.

    The war in Iran is rattling the aviation industry, from flight cancellations to rising costs for jet fuel. So if you're planning to travel this spring or summer, should you grab a ticket now, or wait?

    "You should go ahead and book," says Sean Cudahy, an aviation reporter at The Points Guy travel and personal finance website.

    It's generally recommended to buy international flights further in advance than domestic trips. But in the current circumstances, Cudahy says he would go ahead and book even domestic flights.

    His advice is a sign of how the Middle East conflict is rippling outward, affecting prices and itineraries around the world, beyond the thousands of travelers who were stuck after the war forced a barrage of flight cancellations.

    Airlines warn that ticket prices will rise with fuel costs

    The war's effect on travel was sudden and striking, resulting in the cancellation of more than 46,000 flights in and out of the Middle East from Feb. 28 — when the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran — to March 11, according to Cirium, the aviation analytics company.

    That includes Dubai International, the busiest airport in the world for international travel, according to Airports Council International, along with popular hubs in Doha and Abu Dhabi.


    But even airlines far from the Mideast are facing a sudden surge in a core expense: jet fuel. At the beginning of the year, a gallon of jet fuel cost $2.11; by March 10, the price rose to $3.40, according to the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index, a gain of more than 60%.

    The spike came after tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz came to a virtual halt, as Iran announced it would close the waterway that normally handles about 20% of the world's oil and liquified natural gas.

    Mideast refineries had been sending some 470,000 barrels of jet fuel each day through the strait to airports in Europe and elsewhere, says Rick Joswick, who heads the near-term oil analytics team at S&P Global.

    The price for a gallon of jet fuel soared close to $4 in the first week of the war, prompting United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby to say on Friday that airfare price hikes from higher fuel costs would "probably start quick."

    As they absorb higher fuel costs, airlines could adjust prices higher across the board, or they might tuck an increase into premium fares, where they'll be less noticeable, Cudahy of The Points Guy says.

    Several airlines have publicly confirmed that they'll be raising prices to compensate, as Reuters reports. Other carriers, such as Japan Airlines, publish a schedule of fuel surcharges triggered by cost increases.

    "I do think that this is ultimately going to lead to higher fares for everyone," Cudahy says. "The only question now is how significant and how long does it last?"

    Air travelers stranded by the Iran conflict are greeted in Athens, Greece, after arriving on a charter flight from Dubai on Saturday.
    (
    Giannis Antwnoglou
    /
    SOOC/AFP via Getty Images
    )

    Crisis parallels earlier global disruptions

    The higher fuel prices reflect a genuine struggle to ensure the aviation industry has ample supplies, says Joswick.

    "It's not irrational. It's not some trader bidding up prices," he says. Comparing the situation to the COVID-19 pandemic, he adds, "The consumption of toilet paper didn't change. But you notice that all of the supermarkets ran out of toilet paper, right? Everyone wants to be sure that they have coverage of a critical need."

    Both Cudahy and Joswick compare the Iran conflict's ripple effects to Russia launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which set off flight disruptions and higher fuel prices. As long as the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Joswick says, prices will keep rising.

    "If that were to persist, this would be like a 1979 kind of [oil] crisis," he says. "Anything over a month, and you're seeing a substantial long-term price increase until the flows are restored."

    The U.S. and other large economies can mitigate those effects by tapping strategic oil reserves — which they opted to do on Wednesday. But Joswick predicts that while such a move can help ensure adequate oil supplies, it might not bring a sharp drop in jet fuel prices. For one thing, he says, the U.S. reserve focuses on holding crude oil, not jet fuel. And he cites logistical challenges, such as California's reliance on jet fuel that it either produces or imports.

    Tips for buying a plane ticket right now

    If you're ready to take your chances and book a flight, Cudahy has some guidance.

    First, don't buy a restricted, basic economy ticket that you can't change later, he says.

    Instead, he recommends buying a regular, full-fare economy ticket: "If the price does eventually drop, you can then go back and change it and capture the lower price."

    Another tactic, Cudahy says, is to use airline miles.

    "You can generally cancel it and get all your miles back later, if the price goes down," he says.

    Use services such as Google Flights to comparison shop and set up alerts for price changes. And if you book flights through a third-party site such as Expedia, be sure you understand its cancellation and change policies, in case they differ from the airlines.

    Because of the chance for renewed hostilities in and around Iran, Cudahy says he would try to avoid nearby airline hubs for the next couple of months.

    But he wouldn't wait to book a ticket.

    "In the same way that we're seeing relatively long lines at gas stations with folks trying to get their tanks filled up before the price goes up even more than it already has, I would be thinking the same way when it comes to airfare right now," he says.

    While you might drive an extra mile or two to find cheaper gas, airlines and airports don't have that luxury when they buy jet fuel.

    "Prices are always set on the margin," Joswick says. "That last airport that needs to buy jet fuel, they will pay whatever it takes to get that. And that price then becomes the standard for the whole industry."
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