Topline:
You may have seen a tsunami hit San Francisco the action film "San Andreas." Today's big off-shore quake had us wondering again: what would it be like in reality?
Why now: A late morning 7.0 magnitude quake in Northern California generated a wide-ranging tsunami warning for coastal California. While no tsunami was generated, it got a lot of people thinking.
Keep reading... for a look at what non-movie science tells us about the real-life risks.
In light of the tsunami advisory issued Tuesday, July 29, following an 8.8 magnitude quake in Russia, we're resurfacing a 2017 story from our partner newsroom KQED in San Francisco.
In 2015, Steven Horowitz was watching one of the summer’s big blockbuster action flicks, San Andreas. In the movie, the San Andreas fault shifts, triggering a magnitude 9.6 earthquake in San Francisco. Disaster ensues — and for the rest of the movie we watch as all of the West Coast’s greatest landmarks are destroyed one by one in an epic, computer-generated spectacle.
“I was sitting there watching the giant tsunami course through the Golden Gate and into the bay,” he says. “I looked at that and thought: Wouldn’t there be some kind of dissipation coming through the Golden Gate?”
In 2017, he asked KQED's Bay Curious: If a tsunami were to hit the Golden Gate, what would be its real effect on communities facing the San Francisco Bay?
Despite the terrifying image of a 250-foot wave about to wash over the Golden Gate Bridge, tsunamis do not actually pose a considerable threat to the Bay Area.
It all has to do with the kinds of geologic faults that we have (and don’t have).
Tsunamis are caused when one tectonic plate slides underneath another — a process called subduction. This slow movement is happening all the time, but sometimes a plate will get stuck and pressure starts to build. When it finally lets go, there’s an underwater earthquake that can move the seafloor up and down, sending a wave to the surface of the ocean.
But the San Andreas Fault is different. It’s called a slip-strike fault because the two plates slide past each other horizontally. Of course, whenever plates move, the ground shakes. But here, there is no subduction and little displaced ocean.
Meaning no killer tsunamis. Even San Francisco’s infamous 1906 earthquake generated only a 4-inch wave at the Presidio gauge station.
Although they aren’t generated here, tsunamis do occasionally hit our shores. Since 1854, more than 71 tsunamis have been recorded in San Francisco Bay. Most were generated by earthquakes in subduction zones near Russia, Japan or Alaska.
Eric Geist, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, says that size is the most important factor in evaluating risk.
“We can look at anything, from huge waves to micro-tsunamis, that you’d never see with your eyes but our instruments can detect,” he says.
The worst tsunami to hit the Bay Area was triggered in 1964 by a magnitude 9.2 earthquake in Alaska, Geist says, that killed 11 people in Crescent City. That wave rolled in at just under 4 feet and damaged marinas and private boats in Marin County.
The infamous 2011 tsunami that devastated parts of Japan also arrived in the East Bay 10 ten hours later at just over a foot in height, and caused millions of dollars of damage in Crescent City.
The Cascadia subduction zone, which runs roughly from Mendocino County to Vancouver Island, could also produce a massive earthquake and tsunami. But Geist says it’s unclear how a tsunami from “The Really Big One” would affect the Bay Area.
“Oregon, Washington and California north of Eureka would really bear the brunt of that tsunami,” he explains.
Although it’s unlikely, Steven Ward, a professor of earth and planetary sciences at UC Santa Cruz, has created a series of animations to show how a big tsunami might spread through San Francisco Bay.
In Ward’s simulations, the incoming wave stands just over 16 feet tall. This is much larger than historical tsunamis, but Geist agrees that a wave this size is theoretically possible.
Approaching the Golden Gate at 55 mph, the wave would first hit the outlying areas of Point Reyes National Seashore and Montara. It would then start to flood low-lying areas like Half Moon Bay.
“It’s not like splash and dash,” explains Ward. “When the water comes in, it’s going to flood.”
It would feel like a 12-hour tidal cycle was packed into an hour.
“And it will do as much damage when it goes back out and drags along cars and debris,” he adds.
The original wave and splashbacks from shore would then start to pile up as they squeeze through the 1-mile-wide Golden Gate. In Ward’s simulations, the wave reaches a maximum height of about 30 feet.
“That’s barely to the top the pylon,” says Ward, who is confident that the bridge would have no trouble withstanding the wave energy. “It probably wouldn’t even touch the steel.”
Finally, the wave would fan out into San Francisco Bay. Parts of Crissy Field, Mission Bay and the Marina could see significant flooding, but by the time it reached Treasure Island or the East Bay, the wave would be less than 3 feet tall. It would probably not even make it to the South Bay.
Inundation maps for coastal counties are a great resource for understanding how high ocean waters could rise near you. Here’s San Francisco.
Steven Horowitz, who asked Bay Curious the question, was glad to hear that the tsunami would be nothing like the movie.
“By the time it gets to Berkeley, which is where I’m sitting right now, I think I’m pretty safe,” he says. “Sounds like it’s not going to come rushing up University Avenue.”
Bay Area residents can also rest assured that there have been no recorded deaths from tsunami-related events in San Francisco. And even a worst-case-scenario Cascadia tsunami would take several hours to reach the city, providing ample time to mobilize a response.
And just in case, the City and County of San Francisco has a tsunami plan in place. It includes a strategy for evacuating people from vulnerable areas like Ocean Beach, coordinating basic services (like shelter, water, food, and medical attention) and performing search and rescue.
Still, “if you get a warning and are in a tsunami zone, follow the evacuation instructions,” says Ward. “What do you have to lose, a couple hours of your time?”
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Utility boxes are a popular canvas for public art, but an Los Angeles street artist has taken the idea further — transforming one into a miniature theater.
Why now: Since S.C. Mero installed the box theater just a few weeks ago, dozens of performers have already reached out and begun using the space, ranging from poets to musicians and clowns.
The backstory: Mero often transforms overlooked street fixtures into pieces about urban life. A previous installation at the same corner — an oversized mailbox symbolizing the elusiveness of homeownership — stood for about five years.
Walk through cities around the world and it's easy to spot the trend: utility boxes painted and transformed into public art to spiff up neighborhoods.
In downtown Los Angeles, street artist S.C. Mero has taken the idea of the utility box as art in a different direction with one she’s installed in the Arts District.
“Would you like me to open it up and you can see?” she asked on a recent morning.
At first glance, it looks like an ordinary electrical cabinet — gray and about the size of a refrigerator. But instead of the usual fire-resistant metal, this one is made of wood with a faux concrete base.
She spins two combination locks and pulls open the door.
Inside, instead of a tangle of cables and cords, crushed red velvet covers the walls from top to bottom.
A gilded clock and gold-framed pictures of two other electrical boxes (“possibly its mother, and its great-grandfather”) adorn the tiny interior, inspired by one of downtown’s oldest movie palaces, the Los Angeles Theatre.
“The first time I went into that theater, the feeling that I had, I wanted people to have a similar feeling when they opened this up,” she said.
Like the theater, the box is meant to bring audiences together. Mero invites performers to step inside and since its installation a few weeks ago, some 30 poets, magicians, puppeteers and clowns have reached out about using the space.
Many are female artists.
“Maybe it's because of the scale of it, they feel like they can actually have a chance to get inside,” Mero said.
The box theater sits across the street from the historic American Hotel, an early hub for artists in the neighborhood.
Jesse Easter, the hotel’s night manager, has a front-row seat to the box theater performances.
“It was the seminal message of the Arts District is still alive,” he says.
Easter first arrived in the neighborhood in the 1980s, a blues and rock musician who also professionally installed art.
He said the Arts District has long been known for unconventional public art. Famously in 1982, artist Dustin Shuler pinned a Cessna airplane to the side of the American Hotel with a 20-foot-long nail.
“I was one of the people that was in the hotel that saw the room that the nail came down into, went through the brick wall, into the floor and stopped,” Easter recalls.
Easter says Mero’s installations boldly continue that tradition of guerilla street art in the neighborhood.
After graduating from USC in 2011, she started to make sculptural works with overlooked street fixtures, exploring issues such as addiction and homelessness.
Before the theater box, Mero installed an oversized mailbox at the same corner towering over passersby, symbolizing a housing market that remains out of reach for many Angelenos.
Elsewhere in the Arts District, she has installed a 13-foot-tall parking meter sculpture, commentary on the overwhelming nature of parking in the city.
The box theater is perhaps the piece that has invited the most participation.
Last week, Mero asked Easter and other local artists to perform there. He played a blues song he wrote more than 40 years ago when he first moved to the Arts District.
“It was sunset and I was thinking, this kind of is the bookend,” he said.
Other participants performed spoken word poetry and played saxophone.
One performer, Mike Cuevas, discovered the theater by accident.
An Uber driver, Cuevas was waiting for his next delivery order by the box theater as it was being prepped ahead of the night’s performance.
Mero recalls him getting out of his car to look at what she was doing.
“He's like, what's going on here? This looks so cool,” Mero said. “He said as he's driving throughout the city, in between his rides, he writes poetry.”
Cuevas, who goes by the pen name Octane 543-12, left to make a delivery in East L.A., but he said “something in his heart” told him to return that evening.
After watching others perform, he stepped up to the box and read his poetry in public for the first time, a piece about Latino pride.
“Another generation will pass through,” he recited. “And they'll understand why we honor with proud delight, the continuous fight for the history of our brothers and sisters.”
Cuevas didn’t know Mero by name or anything about her work, but thanks her for giving him a venue.
“I just felt something beautiful with her art,” Cuevas said. “It's time for me to start expressing myself. She inspired me to do exactly what she's doing but through poetry.”
He now plans to read again at an open mic in downtown L.A. next week.
Mero says the project has spoken to her personally, too. Growing up in Minnesota, she loved art as a child but later focused on playing lacrosse and hockey. At USC, she studied public relations.
“Once I started getting so into art, everyone was kind of shocked,” Mero said. “That's why I really want to encourage people to go inside themselves and see what's there, because you never know.”
Mero is hoping for a long run for the box theater. The mailbox installation before it stayed up for five years, only toppled, she heard, after skateboarders accidentally ran into it.
In the meantime, the small theater sits quietly on the sidewalk waiting for its next performer, its exterior starting to collect graffiti like any other utility box.
Topline:
A total lunar eclipse is happening this Tuesday. That's when the earth will move directly between the sun and moon, casting a “blood” red color onto the moon.
What: It's going to be the first lunar eclipse of the year. The process is slated to start around midnight and last until dawn on Tuesday. It’s called the “Blood Moon” because of the red hue the earth’s atmosphere refracts onto the lunar surface as light from the sun passes through it.
When: Although the eclipse begins around midnight, it won’t reach totality until 3:04 a.m., at which point it will be visible to the naked eye for about an hour. All of Southern California should be able to see it.
How else can I watch: The Griffith Observatory will be hosting a live virtual broadcast of the celestial event from midnight to dawn.
What's next: This isn’t the only lunar eclipse happening this year, but it is the only “total eclipse,” according to NASA. Another one is set to occur in August, but it will only be partially visible in North America. A solar eclipse will occur Aug. 12.
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With warm — relative to Alaska — spring waters, migratory rest-stops and great feeding grounds, Los Angeles County’s coast is considered part of the “Blue Highway,” a crucial whale migration corridor and one of the best places to spot the gentle giants.
What might you see? Cetacean species you may spot in our waters include humpback whales, orcas, blue whales and dolphins. Your best chance, however, is spotting a gray whale. As school-bus-sized gray whales migrate back and forth between Alaska and Baja, they consistently hug LA’s coastline.
Read on ... for tips on where and how to spot whales near you.
It’s whale watching season, which always makes me think of the novel Moby-Dick.
In the book, Captain Ahab chased a whale for vengeance. I recently chased whales off the coast of Los Angeles, but in my case, it was in pursuit of the beauty and majesty of the natural world.
With warm — relative to Alaska — spring waters, migratory rest-stops and great feeding grounds, Los Angeles County’s coast is considered part of the “Blue Highway,” a crucial whale migration corridor and one of the best places to spot the gentle giants.
According to Cabrillo Marine Aquarium program director Jim DiPompei, many whales can be seen right in our backyard.
“There’s a little over 90 species of cetaceans (marine mammals) in the world, and we see about 30% of the species we could possibly see here in Southern California,” DiPompei told The LA Local.
Cetacean species you may spot in our waters include humpback whales, orcas, blue whales and dolphins. Your best chance, however, is spotting a gray whale. As school bus-sized gray whales migrate back and forth between Alaska and Baja, they consistently hug LA’s coastline.
But where should you go to actually get a good look at whales? Don’t worry — I got you. Here’s The LA Local guide to cruising the Blue Highway.
Point Vicente Interpretive Center
31501 Palos Verdes Drive West, Rancho Palos Verdes
Free, laid-back, on the mountains!
At the Point Vicente Interpretive Center in Rancho Palos Verdes, you’ll find an overlook dedicated to whale watching. While this is a great free spot for amateurs to come and look out for whales, this is no playground. Professionals conduct the annual whale census here, tracking the migration of whales.
This is a great place to bring a picnic basket and some binoculars to relax while scanning the ocean. Even if you don’t spot any whale action, you can visit the free natural history museum inside, which focuses on the region and its most famous inhabitants: whales. Afterward, step outside and chat with a museum docent accompanying the census watch.
If you want to see whales, stick to the coastal canyons. Canyons aren’t just massive structures above water — they are also mountains beneath the surface, offering depth, cold water and nutrients that attract food for whales. Gray whales tend to follow the canyons to stay away from the dangerous orcas.
Whale watching season typically runs from December through May. It peaks from January to March.
When looking for a whale, try to spot their water mist blowing above the water. Gray whales typically surface for air every five minutes. When they do, they’ll blow out a water mist — that’s your chance to spot and track them until they surface again.
If you want to get eye-to-eye and really feel a cetacean’s scale, there are plenty of whale-watching cruises. They typically depart from Marina Del Rey, Redondo Beach, Long Beach, San Pedro, Dana Point and almost anywhere with a port.
Many cruises have a naturalist on board to answer questions and provide expert context to ocean wildlife.
On my tour departing from Long Beach, we saw five gray whales and a swarm of common dolphins feeding.
But be warned: If you get seasick easily, this trip might not be for you. On our two-and-half-hour trip, the boat rocked emphatically as we approached feeding sites. It’s fun if you can imagine yourself on a see-saw, but it might not be that enjoyable if that sounds nauseating.
While boat captains are not allowed to approach the whales too closely due to environmental protections, the whales can approach the boat if they choose. Sometimes the whales seem curious and watch us in return — it’s up to them and how they are feeling.
Cabrillo Marine Aquarium
3720 Stephen M. White Drive, San Pedro
If you really catch the whale-watching bug, you’re in luck.
At the Cabrillo Marine Aquarium, they offer a whale-watching naturalist program where you can volunteer and train to be a naturalist on board whale-watching cruises.
DiPompei said they train anyone over the age of 18 “who’s interested in learning about whales and volunteering their time to be on these whale-watching boats to talk to the general public and to talk to students.”
This program was started in the 1970s by John Olge, one of the founders of Cabrillo Marine Aquarium, with an emphasis on education and showing schoolchildren the beauty of our natural world.
The aquarium is also a great place to introduce whales to children. With kid-sized exhibits and educational programs throughout the year, it’s an ideal way to show young ones just how big and beautiful our oceans are.
Topline:
Despite the loss of federal subsidies that lowered costs for millions, California’s private health insurance marketplace held nearly steady this enrollment season. In all, 1.9 million Californians renewed their plan or selected one for the first time — a 2.7% drop compared to last year.
What's the issue? More enrollees are opting for “bronze-level” plans. These plans have lower monthly premium costs but higher deductibles and copays; they cover 60% of medical expenses — leaving enrollees to pay the rest. While bronze-level plans may offer people some peace of mind, the high deductibles and copays tend to discourage people from seeking care.
Read on ... for more about the shift in California's insurance marketplace.
Despite the loss of federal subsidies that lowered costs for millions, California’s private health insurance marketplace held nearly steady this enrollment season. In all, 1.9 million Californians renewed their plan or selected one for the first time — a 2.7% drop compared to last year.
A closer look, however, shows Californians are making concessions to afford staying insured.
More enrollees are opting for “bronze-level” plans. These plans have lower monthly premium costs but higher deductibles and copays; they cover 60% of medical expenses — leaving enrollees to pay the rest. One-in-three new enrollees chose bronze plans for 2026, compared to one-in-four last year, according to Covered California. And 130,000 Californians renewing their coverage switched from a silver or higher-metal tier plan to bronze.
“Many Californians see the value in remaining covered, but they had to make sacrifices and shift to lower-tier plans. We see it as a commitment to health and the value that Covered California provides,” Jessica Altman, Covered California’s executive director said in a statement.
While bronze-level plans may offer people some peace of mind, the high deductibles and copays tend to discourage people from seeking care, said Miranda Dietz, director of the Health Care Program at the UC Berkeley Labor Center.
“Those out-of-pocket costs do impact people’s decisions to get care, so that’s worrisome as well,” Dietz said.
People earning above 400% of the federal poverty level — $62,600 for an individual and $128,600 for a family of four — no longer qualify for premium assistance after Congress chose not to extend the enhanced subsidies at the end of last year, pushing many to opt for plans with cheaper premiums or drop their marketplace plans entirely.
Of the 224,000 middle-income enrollees set to renew, 22% cancelled their plans, according to Covered California. New sign ups for people in this income bracket decreased by 59% compared to last year.
Whether those who renewed coverage or newly signed up continue to pay their premiums is another question. A clearer picture of who stays enrolled will emerge around April, Covered California said.
“Once you actually face the prospect of paying that premium and the stress that puts on your budget, it’s entirely possible that some of those folks may fall off, and the [enrollment] numbers might go down,” Dietz said.
It’s unknown whether people who cancelled their marketplace health plans are enrolling in other types of insurance. Covered California data from the last five years show that when people terminate their marketplace plan, 10% to 14% of them report becoming uninsured.
The Affordable Care Act’s enhanced premium subsidies, first enacted in 2021 as part of federal COVID-19 response, helped lower the insurance costs for millions of Americans. They especially helped middle-income earners by allowing them to qualify for financial assistance for the first time, capping premiums at 8.5% of income. That help is now gone, and premiums are up an average of 10%.
Lower-income enrollees remain eligible for standard federal premium aid available since ACA marketplaces launched. They also benefit from state help. California allocated $190 million in 2026 to provide state-funded tax credits for people who earn up to 165% of the federal poverty level — $25,823 for an individual or $53,048 for a family of four — averaging about $45 a month per enrollee.The end of the enhanced federal subsidies also come at a time when poll after poll shows health care costs are a growing stress point for people. Seven in 10 Californians say health care expenses place a financial strain on their household, according to a recent survey by the California Health Care Foundation. Four in 10 have medical debt and six in 10 report skipping care. Meanwhile, eight in 10 Californians say making health care affordable is an “extremely” or “very” important priority for state officials and lawmakers in 2026.
