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You may have seen a tsunami hit San Francisco the action film "San Andreas." Today's big off-shore quake had us wondering again: what would it be like in reality?
Why now: A late morning 7.0 magnitude quake in Northern California generated a wide-ranging tsunami warning for coastal California. While no tsunami was generated, it got a lot of people thinking.
Keep reading... for a look at what non-movie science tells us about the real-life risks.
In light of the tsunami advisory issued Tuesday, July 29, following an 8.8 magnitude quake in Russia, we're resurfacing a 2017 story from our partner newsroom KQED in San Francisco.
In 2015, Steven Horowitz was watching one of the summer’s big blockbuster action flicks, San Andreas. In the movie, the San Andreas fault shifts, triggering a magnitude 9.6 earthquake in San Francisco. Disaster ensues — and for the rest of the movie we watch as all of the West Coast’s greatest landmarks are destroyed one by one in an epic, computer-generated spectacle.
“I was sitting there watching the giant tsunami course through the Golden Gate and into the bay,” he says. “I looked at that and thought: Wouldn’t there be some kind of dissipation coming through the Golden Gate?”
In 2017, he asked KQED's Bay Curious: If a tsunami were to hit the Golden Gate, what would be its real effect on communities facing the San Francisco Bay?
Despite the terrifying image of a 250-foot wave about to wash over the Golden Gate Bridge, tsunamis do not actually pose a considerable threat to the Bay Area.
It all has to do with the kinds of geologic faults that we have (and don’t have).
Tsunamis are caused when one tectonic plate slides underneath another — a process called subduction. This slow movement is happening all the time, but sometimes a plate will get stuck and pressure starts to build. When it finally lets go, there’s an underwater earthquake that can move the seafloor up and down, sending a wave to the surface of the ocean.
But the San Andreas Fault is different. It’s called a slip-strike fault because the two plates slide past each other horizontally. Of course, whenever plates move, the ground shakes. But here, there is no subduction and little displaced ocean.
Meaning no killer tsunamis. Even San Francisco’s infamous 1906 earthquake generated only a 4-inch wave at the Presidio gauge station.
Although they aren’t generated here, tsunamis do occasionally hit our shores. Since 1854, more than 71 tsunamis have been recorded in San Francisco Bay. Most were generated by earthquakes in subduction zones near Russia, Japan or Alaska.
Eric Geist, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, says that size is the most important factor in evaluating risk.
“We can look at anything, from huge waves to micro-tsunamis, that you’d never see with your eyes but our instruments can detect,” he says.
The worst tsunami to hit the Bay Area was triggered in 1964 by a magnitude 9.2 earthquake in Alaska, Geist says, that killed 11 people in Crescent City. That wave rolled in at just under 4 feet and damaged marinas and private boats in Marin County.
The infamous 2011 tsunami that devastated parts of Japan also arrived in the East Bay 10 ten hours later at just over a foot in height, and caused millions of dollars of damage in Crescent City.
The Cascadia subduction zone, which runs roughly from Mendocino County to Vancouver Island, could also produce a massive earthquake and tsunami. But Geist says it’s unclear how a tsunami from “The Really Big One” would affect the Bay Area.
“Oregon, Washington and California north of Eureka would really bear the brunt of that tsunami,” he explains.
Although it’s unlikely, Steven Ward, a professor of earth and planetary sciences at UC Santa Cruz, has created a series of animations to show how a big tsunami might spread through San Francisco Bay.
In Ward’s simulations, the incoming wave stands just over 16 feet tall. This is much larger than historical tsunamis, but Geist agrees that a wave this size is theoretically possible.
Approaching the Golden Gate at 55 mph, the wave would first hit the outlying areas of Point Reyes National Seashore and Montara. It would then start to flood low-lying areas like Half Moon Bay.
“It’s not like splash and dash,” explains Ward. “When the water comes in, it’s going to flood.”
It would feel like a 12-hour tidal cycle was packed into an hour.
“And it will do as much damage when it goes back out and drags along cars and debris,” he adds.
The original wave and splashbacks from shore would then start to pile up as they squeeze through the 1-mile-wide Golden Gate. In Ward’s simulations, the wave reaches a maximum height of about 30 feet.
“That’s barely to the top the pylon,” says Ward, who is confident that the bridge would have no trouble withstanding the wave energy. “It probably wouldn’t even touch the steel.”
Finally, the wave would fan out into San Francisco Bay. Parts of Crissy Field, Mission Bay and the Marina could see significant flooding, but by the time it reached Treasure Island or the East Bay, the wave would be less than 3 feet tall. It would probably not even make it to the South Bay.
Inundation maps for coastal counties are a great resource for understanding how high ocean waters could rise near you. Here’s San Francisco.
Steven Horowitz, who asked Bay Curious the question, was glad to hear that the tsunami would be nothing like the movie.
“By the time it gets to Berkeley, which is where I’m sitting right now, I think I’m pretty safe,” he says. “Sounds like it’s not going to come rushing up University Avenue.”
Bay Area residents can also rest assured that there have been no recorded deaths from tsunami-related events in San Francisco. And even a worst-case-scenario Cascadia tsunami would take several hours to reach the city, providing ample time to mobilize a response.
And just in case, the City and County of San Francisco has a tsunami plan in place. It includes a strategy for evacuating people from vulnerable areas like Ocean Beach, coordinating basic services (like shelter, water, food, and medical attention) and performing search and rescue.
Still, “if you get a warning and are in a tsunami zone, follow the evacuation instructions,” says Ward. “What do you have to lose, a couple hours of your time?”
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The longest road trip in NFL history has brought the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams to Australia’s sports capital for a season opener in front of more than 100,000 football-hungry fans packed into the Southern Hemisphere’s largest stadium.
Why it matters: The NFC West rivals are playing Australia’s first NFL game, and the starkly differing ways in which they made this epic journey have attracted almost as much attention as the two star-studded rosters preparing to put on a show.
The backstory: The 49ers have been Down Under for more than a week, adjusting their body clocks and winning over thousands of Aussie fans who appreciate their commitment to the historic moment. The Rams were only scheduled to arrive in Melbourne around dawn Thursday, roughly 28 hours before the Friday morning kickoff that’s necessary to play the game Thursday night in prime time in the U.S. That’s because head coach Sean McVay is convinced they can thwart jet lag and optimize their game readiness by staying home on California time.
What's next: The Rams and 49ers kick off at 5:35 p.m. Thursday night on Netflix.
The longest road trip in NFL history has brought the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams to Australia’s sports capital for a season opener in front of more than 100,000 football-hungry fans packed into the Southern Hemisphere’s largest stadium.
The NFC West rivals are playing Australia’s first NFL game, and the starkly differing ways in which they made this epic journey have attracted almost as much attention as the two star-studded rosters preparing to put on a show.
The 49ers have been Down Under for more than a week, adjusting their body clocks in the traditional manner and winning over thousands of Aussie fans who appreciate their commitment to the historic moment.
The Rams were only scheduled to arrive in Melbourne around dawn Thursday, roughly 28 hours before the Friday morning kickoff that’s necessary to play the game Thursday night in prime time in the U.S. That’s because head coach Sean McVay is convinced they can thwart jet lag and optimize their game readiness by staying home on California time.
Both teams agree this contrast in preparation is not a referendum on the best way to handle a pair of 16-hour flights with a football game in between — even if the rest of the world might see it that way after the final whistle.
Instead, this game is primarily a difficult early test for both the Super Bowl favorite Rams and the talent-laden 49ers, who also intend to be a title challenger. The coaching staffs and veteran players all know each other thoroughly after a decade of competition between Shanahan and McVay, who are both constantly looking for an edge.
“I don’t think there’s any right way to do it,” said defensive end Myles Garrett, who will make his Rams debut in Australia. “They have a plan, and I’m sure they consulted different teams and people to find out a way to combat jet lag and such long travel. We’ve done the same thing. I think we’re both riding our methodologies.”
Garrett will be joined by star cornerback Trent McDuffie and cornerback Jaylen Watson in their debuts with Los Angeles’ revamped defense.
But Garrett will not be joined at the MCG by Aaron Donald, who ended his 2 1/2-year retirement late last month. The Rams decided the 35-year-old Donald will stay home as he ramps up deliberately for his return — and that’s a beacon of hope for Shanahan, who was sure his old friend McVay would bring Donald to Australia.
“I’ve never been more excited to be wrong about something,” Shanahan said.
Topline:
A recent AirTalk segment highlights the decades-long debate over street vending in Los Angeles. Despite efforts by the City Council and statewide law, enforcement remains murky at best, even though it's a fixture of Los Angeles culture.
Why now? During a recent debate, Mayor Karen Bass made a series of comments that cast street vending in an unsavory light, prompting an almost immediate backlash from her opponent, Nithya Raman, who has devised her own nine-point plan to address street vending if elected.
Why is it important? Street vendors are as much a part of L.A.'s identity as its restaurants — but the system meant to support them is so broken that only a fraction operate with full legal standing. As this becomes a defining issue in the mayor's race, it's worth knowing the difference between political rhetoric and how the rules actually work on the ground.
Last month, street vending became a flashpoint during one of the recent debates for L.A. mayor when incumbent Karen Bass said, "I do not think that you should have a food vendor in front of a restaurant. Period," drawing a comparison to unhoused encampments.
The remarks set off an almost immediate backlash. Mayoral candidate Nithya Raman, who has her own 9-point plan to support street vendors, said Bass "took a shot" at the street vending community and reiterated her commitment to work toward regulations and legalizing their operations.
Bass's office later eased its stance, saying it had directed the LAPD to stop issuing criminal citations to street vendors — and to dismiss any that had been issued in error.
Street vending remains part of the Los Angeles landscape, and the backlash from the debate brought to light just how confusing its legality can be. To understand how we got here, it helps to start with the basics.
Yes. Since SB 946 in 2018, state law has decriminalized it. That means cities and counties can't criminally cite vendors or ban them from specific zones. They can, however, still enforce health and safety rules — things like sidewalk clearance and ADA access.
On a recent segment for AirTalk, Memo Torres of L.A. Taco pointed to a stark gap between L.A.'s vending population and its permitted vendors. According to an email from the California Restaurant Association reported by FOX 11, an estimated 50,000 street vendors operate across Los Angeles — yet only 53 hold permits specifically for food sales.
Vending requirements largely mirror restaurant-grade standards — large refrigeration units, multi-basin sinks — that don't fit the reality of most vendor setups: flat-top griddles, folding tables, pop-up tents.
That isn't to say there haven't been efforts by the city to address the permitting gap. In 2024, the City Council, with Raman's backing, voted to drop the annual permit fee from $541 to $27.51.
Raman's mayoral campaign has since proposed another potential fix: extending a state permit category — currently used by vendors at farmers markets who share equipment like a communal three-compartment sink — to street vendors, so operators wouldn't need their own restaurant-grade setup to qualify.
County health inspectors technically oversee street food vendors, but both industry and vendor advocates agree enforcement is inconsistent — leaving reliable data on violations hard to come by.
A 2015 Economic Roundtable study found that businesses located near street vendors were more likely to see job growth than those without nearby vendors.
Proposals like Raman's permitting reforms aim to close the gap — but for now, most of L.A.'s vendors remain outside the formal system.
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The U.S. Department of Justice announced Wednesday that it has opened an investigation into the Men’s Central Jail in downtown Los Angeles, specifically looking into whether L.A. County has failed to provide environmentally safe, humane and habitable conditions for people held there.
The details: The jail has long been plagued by allegations of poor conditions. Monitors from the American Civil Liberties Union have documented problems including overcrowding, severe mold and mildew, and rodent infestations.
The context: The federal investigation is expected to focus on conditions within the facility and not the actions of the county sheriff’s deputies who staff it, according to the Justice Department. The new investigation is separate from a 2015 settlement between the county and federal government, which stemmed from allegations of inadequate mental health care provided at county jails.
What happens next: Investigators will determine whether the county has violated the Eighth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which protects against cruel and unusual punishment, and 14th Amendment, which guarantees equal protection under the law.
Reaction: L.A. County Supervisor Kathryn Barger welcomed the investigation, and said she had said for year that the jail was “antiquated, inhumane, and unfit for our workforce and those incarcerated there.”
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Firefighters appeared to make quick progress against a brush fire the broke out Wednesday near the Getty Center.
What we know so far: As of 5 p.m., evacuation warnings had been issued for zones LFD-0895 and LF-0967, although the LAFD said no structures were immediately threatened as the water-dropping helicopters attacked the fire from above.
Read on ... for more on evacuations and weather conditions.
This story is no longer being actively updated. For the most up-to-date information about the fire you can check:
Firefighters appeared to make quick progress against a brush fire the broke out Wednesday near the Getty Center.
As of 5 p.m., evacuation warnings had been issued for zones LFD-0895 and LF-0967, although the LAFD said no structures were immediately threatened as the water-dropping helicopters attacked the fire from above. Forward progress of the fire was reported stopped shortly after 6 p.m. at a little over 20 acres.
The fire broke out as Southern California endures high heat and record-breaking humidity.
Check out LAist's wildfire recovery guide
If you have to evacuate:
Navigating fire conditions:
How to help yourself and others:
How to start the recovery process:
What to do for your kids:
Prepare for the next disaster:
