Thanks to a refreshingly wet year with late summer rains, the fire season’s been muted across much of California, so far.
Over the next week, meaningful precipitation, in combination with leftover moisture, could help keep a lid on fires from Central California and points north.
The Sierra Nevada will see its first real showing of snow in some time, particularly in elevations above 6,000 feet. One to two inches are expected to fall across the mountains from Mammoth on north, with as much as six inches possible on the highest peaks.
“This is a bit abnormal how late this snow is coming in,” said Andrew Schwartz, lead scientist with UC Berkeley’s Central Sierra Snow Lab, who pointed out that two Octobers ago, California’s mountains saw 4 feet of snow.
“We’re not necessarily completely out of the woods, but things are looking pretty favorable for lower fire danger,” he said.
Watch live conditions at the Central Sierra Snow Lab near Donner summit:
It’s a different story here in Southern California.
While we’re also benefiting from leftover moisture, we’re going to miss out on anything substantial from this latest weather system.
We’re right in the middle of Santa Ana season, and the strong dry winds can still desiccate finer fuels, like grasses, and drive fires.
Santa Ana winds are expected to arrive on Monday of next week, with Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles counties being the areas of greatest concern.
“We’re going to be drying out, but we’re going to have enough moisture going into it that it’s not going to be a clear cut fire weather event,” said Jonathan O’Brien, meteorologist with the U.S. Forest Service.
Winds will be a bit weaker, and more moisture is expected to show up in Orange County and further south.
