The Brief

As dozens of wildfires burn across California after a remarkable outbreak of dry lightning, a new study warns that a warming planet could bring more lightning-sparked wildfires to the West in the coming decades.

“These are the sort of events that can really allow the fire season to turn on a dime,” said John Abatzoglou, a professor of climatology at UC Merced and an author of the study.

From early Tuesday into Wednesday morning, a lightning storm hurled thousands of bolts at the state, Cal Fire battalion chief David Acuña told CalMatters Wednesday. Forty-five new fires ignited within Cal Fire’s jurisdiction in that same time period, he said. Dry lightning strikes with little, if any, rainfall nearby.

“We can't collectively say they're all lightning fires, but we can say that there were a large number of lightning strikes and a large number of fires,” Acuña said.

Many of them are burning in the Sierra foothills, including the TCU September Lightning Complex in Tuolumne, Stanislaus and Calaveras Counties. Those fires have already torched nearly 14,000 acres, forced evacuations, destroyed buildings and devastated the historic Gold Rush town of Chinese Camp.

Exactly how many lightning strikes hit the ground Tuesday and Wednesday is hard to count. But Chris Vagasky, lightning data specialist with the National Lightning Safety Council, calculates nearly 11,000 bolts of electricity struck the ground in California over 31 hours. Federal maps show dry lightning up and down the center of California, from below Fresno to the Oregon border.

Though people spark the vast majority of wildfires, lightning strikes have caused some of California’s biggest and longest-lasting blazes — accounting for more than a third of the area burned in California in recent decades, according to Abatzoglou’s analysis of federal data.

Lightning started some of the biggest wildfires in California history, including 2020’s August Complex, which killed a firefighter and became the first fire on record to burn more than a million acres of the state.

These wildcard, lightning-sparked fires can be the “dominant driver” behind how much of the West burns, Abatzoglou said — which is why scientists seek to understand their patterns.

His team’s study, published last week in the journal Earth’s Future, reports that from 2030 to 2060, some western states could see up to 12 more days of lightning striking the ground per year.

Using machine learning, the researchers found that eastern Oregon and Washington, Idaho and western Montana will see some of the largest increases. But parts of northeast California and the eastern Sierra could see an increase as well.

Parts of the southwest saw more mixed results. But even there, as climate change drives hotter, drier conditions, the researchers found that lightning is increasingly likely to strike when parched lands are more vulnerable to fire.

“You get this very hazardous situation in terms of fire risk, where you have lighting that hits the dry vegetation,” postdoctoral scientist Dmitri Kalashnikov, the study’s lead author, said. “You'll get an ignition, but then there's no downpours to extinguish the flame — so that fire can grow.”

UC Merced’s new study bolsters earlier predictions that climate change could spur more lightning strikes.

But Vagasky, who did not participate in the research, says it improves on previous efforts by focusing on the risk for lightning-sparked fire across places with different geographies, weather patterns and vegetation.

“It's not always the amount of lightning,” Vagasky said. “It's the one lightning stroke that hits in the wrong place, at the wrong time, that starts the fire.”

‘We have to be ready’

Under the right conditions and in the right places, lightning fires can act like prescribed burns and clear away fuels, said Zeke Lunder, a pyrogeographer and director at The Lookout, a wildfire education blog and YouTube channel.

The challenge is when a bout of dry lightning sparks dozens of fires, all at once.

“We’re really good at putting out fires,” Lunder said. “But when we have a hundred, a few of them are going to get away.”

Five years ago, Cal Fire’s Acuña was mopping up the lightning-sparked Hills Fire near Coalinga when another lightning storm descended.

“Lightning was striking all around us, and we were just so exhausted that we were like, ‘Well, there's nowhere to hide,’” he said. “There's no cave. You can't stand under a tree. We just got as flat as we could, and waited for it to pass over.”

He remembers it felt like hours, lying there waiting for the storm to pass. “There was a charge in every one of my cells from, you know, being concerned,” he said.

Such fires are also insidious, capable of smoldering in remote areas until hot, dry, windy conditions coax them into an inferno.

“They're difficult to discover,” Acuña said. “They could be sitting inside the root of a struck oak tree for a week, week-and-a-half — and then all of a sudden, there's a fire.”

The state is taking steps to better detect fires, Acuña added — even unpredictable and sneaky ones sparked by lightning. In 2023, Cal Fire partnered with UC San Diego’s ALERTCalifornia, which uses a network of more than 1,100 cameras and artificial intelligence to alert firefighters about potential fires.

“We have to be ready, because there was little to no notice that this lightning was coming in,” Acuña said. “If it happened once, it can happen again. And so we maintain readiness to respond anywhere within the state to protect people, property and resources.”

UC Merced’s Kalashnikov says he has not yet seen a climate-fueled increase in lightning — but that it’s not a distant threat.

“We are making these predictions for the near-term future,” Kalashnikov said. “These changes in terms of increased lightning are going to happen soon.”

This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.

This story will be updated. Check back for details.

Southern California will ring in the new year with a pair of storms that will douse the Rose Parade and possibly prompt evacuation orders in recent burn scar zones.

The heaviest rain is expected to fall across Los Angeles on Wednesday night and into Thursday, New Year's Day, according to the National Weather Service.

The ground and roads are already saturated from last week's winter storm, meaning there's a high risk of mudslides, rock slides and other hazards.

"Because of the saturated, really wet soils, we do have that high risk for downed trees with really any wind as well as rock slides and mud slides," Ryan Kittell, meteorologist at NWS, said. "In those vulnerable canyons and hillsides, there's about a moderate risk for flooding and at least shallow debris flows for recent burn scar areas."

L.A. County has already issued evacuation warnings for burn scar areas beginning 11 a.m. Wednesday. That includes communities in the Eaton and Palisades fires.

Rainfall projections

It's supposed to be one of the wettest New Year's Days in decades, according to the National Weather Service. Here are the projected rain levels:

• Los Angeles: 1.53 inches
• Oxnard: 1.00 inches
• Santa Barbara: 0.80 inches
• San Luis Obispo: 0.57 inches

As another storm heads towards Southern California, the National Weather Service shared New Year's Day rain facts.

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Courtesy of the National Weather Service

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The storm will also bring what is likely to be the first time rain to fall on Pasadena’s Rose Parade since 2006.

Snow levels through New Year's Day are expected to remain above 8,500 feet, then drop to around 7,500 feet on Friday.

Evacuations and closures

Due to increased hazard of mudslides and debris flows, evacuation warnings will take effect at 11 a.m. Wednesday in burn zones across L.A. County, including Palisades and Eaton fire areas.

Sign up for L.A. County's emergency alerts for notifications here.

Traffic conditions

Officials urge drivers to avoid the roads as much as possible through Thursday.

See latest road conditions in Southern California

Forecast

This atmospheric river is expected to slightly weaker than last week's, but take this latest round of storms seriously. The ground is already saturated which means we’re at a higher risk for downed trees, rockslides and mudslides.

Understanding National Weather Service warnings

Here’s an excerpt from our guide to understanding flood warnings, if any are issued:

• Flood advisories are how the NWS begins to raise the alarm. The goal is to give people enough time to take action.
• Flood watches are your indicators to get prepared to move.
• A flood warning is issued when a hazardous weather event is imminent or already happening. When one is issued for your area, you need to get to higher ground immediately.
• A flash flood warning is issued when a flash flood is coming or in progress. Flash floods are sudden and violent floods that can start within minutes.

Read more: Flash Flood Warnings? Watches? Here’s What You Need To Know

Tips for driving in the rain

Advice on driving in the rain:

• Check weather and road conditions all along your planned route.
• Slow down.
• Keep a wider-than-usual distance between your vehicle and the one in front.
• Don't drive through standing water — as little as 12 inches of rushing water can carry away most cars, and two feet can carry away SUVs and trucks.
• Make sure tires are fully inflated.
• Check windshield wiper blades and replace if necessary.

Read more: What you should do if you end up driving in a flooded area

Downed tree, power line or flooded road?

Dial 911 in an emergency.

However, if you need to report a flooded road or a downed tree, you can call the following non-emergency numbers:

• L.A. city: Dial 311 for a flooded road or downed tree. Call (800) DIAL-DWP if you see a downed power line.
• L.A. County: (800) 675-HELP
• Ventura County: (805) 384-1500
• Orange County: (714) 955-0200 or visit here.

If you're in L.A. County and need sand bags, you can find some at local fire houses.

Staying safe when the winds are high

• Watch for traffic signals that may be out. Approach those intersections as four-way stops.
• Make sure you have a battery-operated radio and flashlights. Check the batteries to make sure they are fresh. Use flashlights for lighting during a power outage; do not use candles because they may pose a fire hazard.
• If you’re in a vehicle with a fallen power line on it, stay in the vehicle and remain calm until help arrives. It is OK to use your cellphone to call 911. If you must leave the vehicle, exit away from downed power lines and jump from the vehicle, landing with both feet together. You must not touch the vehicle and the ground at the same time. Then proceed away from the vehicle by shuffling and not picking up your feet until you are several yards away. 
• Water and electricity don’t mix. Water is an excellent conductor of electricity. Do not step in or enter any water that a downed power line may be touching.
• Do not use any equipment indoors that is designed for outdoor heating or cooking. Such equipment can emit carbon monoxide and other toxic gases.
• If you use a generator, place it outdoors and plug individual appliances directly into it, using a heavy-duty extension cord. Connecting generators directly to household circuits creates “backfeed,” which is dangerous to repair crews.
• Leave the doors of your refrigerator and freezer closed to keep food as fresh as possible. Place blocks of ice inside to help keep food cold. Check food carefully for signs of spoilage. 
• Check on your neighbors to make sure everyone is safe.

Tips on staying warm

• State law requires residential units to have heating systems that can keep indoor temperatures at a minimum of 70 degrees. That means every dwelling unit and guest room offered for rent or lease should offer heating equipment.
• Use heat smartly to save money: Cranking heaters can be expensive. If money is tight, be judicious about how and when you use your utilities. For example, only use heaters at night or only set the thermostat to around 70 degrees.
• Open and close those vents: If you have central A/C, look at where the vents are around your home. Are any open in places where you don’t stay long? Practice opening and closing those so warm air only goes where you need it (most vents should have a small toggle lever). Humidifiers can also help you warm things up — and it’s useful to add moisture into our dry air.
• Adjust your wall heaters: If you have a wall heater, you can change the output by adjusting the knob (usually at the bottom). Since wall heaters can only warm the areas where they’re placed, it’s essential to close doors to rooms you won’t be in so hot air doesn’t get wasted.
• Turn on your ceiling fan (really): If you have a ceiling fan, try turning it on. This sounds counterintuitive, but there’s science behind it. TSince hot air floats up, your fan can help move it around. For warming, your fan should spin clockwise to create an updraft. Not all fans will have this option.
  

Sign up for emergency alerts

• L.A. City: Notify L.A.
• L.A. County: Ready L.A. County
• Ventura County: Ready Ventura County
• Orange County: AlertOC
• Riverside County: AlertRivCo
• San Bernardino County

How we're reporting on this

WHO IS REPORTING THIS

This is a developing story. We fact check everything and rely only on information from credible sources (think fire, police, government officials and reporters on the ground). Sometimes, however, we make mistakes or initial reports turn out to be wrong. In all cases, we strive to bring you the most accurate information in real time and will update this story as new information becomes available.

It was the everyday moments of saying hello to neighbors. The soundtrack of crashing waves on the walk after dropping the kids off at school. The feeling of cruising down a street filled with trees decorated in lights during the holidays.

These are some of the memories Angelenos shared with LAist in response to our survey asking Pacific Palisades and Altadena residents what made their neighborhoods special before the fires.

As we approach the one-year anniversary of the Eaton and Palisades fires, LAist is highlighting, and illustrating, community stories as the region works to rebuild.

To do this, we read through dozens of responses to our survey and spoke to a handful of people directly to help tell their stories.

Here’s some of what they shared, and what they want to always remember.

The magical neighborhoods

For Palisades resident Kelly Sullivan, some of her most cherished memories are what she described as the simple, fleeting moments that capture the magic of “Pali.”

Kelly Sullivan, a resident of Pacific Palisades, stands on the destroyed secret sidewalk near the neighboring El Medio bluffs in October 2025. It was one of her family’s favorite spots to visit.

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A colorful phoenix windchime hangs from a charred tree branch in mid October 2025 in the secret sidewalk, which was destroyed by the Palisades Fire.

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One of her favorite spots was a path off Abramar Avenue by the El Medio bluffs that neighbors called the “secret sidewalk.” The path, which was destroyed in the fire, now borders the remnants of a home that burned to the ground. Tree branches used to curve down, creating a tunnel, and Sullivan remembers the gentle clanking of windchimes tied to the branches that filled the air.

“There was a sign that said 'secret sidewalk' as you’re walking down. We'd stop and touch all the chimes,” said Sullivan, who used to visit the spot with her family. “You’d have all these beautiful sounds as you’re walking down, and you’d sit on that bench and just listen to them all.”

An illustration of the secret sidewalk before it, and a nearby home were destroyed. This is a special place for Kelly Sullivan, her family, and others in the neighborhood.

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To Sullivan, the secret sidewalk had an almost storybook-like look. She said it was a special place for the people in the neighborhood.

A couple miles northeast from the secret sidewalk, Rachel Jonas and her family often visited the Marquez Business Block, a hometown strip of stores in Pacific Palisades that included a deli, restaurant, nail salon, karate studio and pharmacy.

"We practically lived there with our kids,” Jonas said. “It was the kind of place where you'd see the same people over and over.”

An illustration of the now destroyed Marquez Business Block in Pacific Palisades. Rachel Jonas, her family, and their neighbors often visited the local shops.

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Jonas’ home was destroyed in the Palisades Fire, and she and her family now live in Tennessee with her in-laws as they work to rebuild.

Rob Fagnani and Rachel Jonas in front of where their Palisades home stood.

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Courtesy of Rob Fagnani and Rachel Jonas

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“It wasn't the fanciest but [it] had such an incredible community feel,” said Jonas, describing the business block. “They had annual block parties where there'd be a face painter, a bounce house, etc. It was just the best.”

Residents from both Pacific Palisades and Altadena shared stories in our survey about how great each place was to have a childhood. Julia Goodwine, 16, told us what made Altadena so special to her was the community.

She cherishes memories of biking down to her family's home, which was destroyed in the Eaton Fire, and spending summer evenings at the library. Sometimes she would watch horses go by at Loma Alta Park or sit on the grass with a book. When she was in middle school, she would play baseball near the base of the park’s hill by a Chinese Elm tree with her dad.

An illustration of Altadena's Christmas Tree Lane where many homes were destroyed. The street and lighting ceremony attract many to walk and drive up and down the street admiring the lights on the cedar trees.

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One of her favorite places in Altadena is Christmas Tree Lane on Santa Rosa Avenue, where some homes along the street were destroyed in the fire. About a year ago, shortly before the fires, she got her driver’s license and would drive down the street every night to look at the lights.

“I remember the lights [were] so beautiful. I could just kind of sit, look at the trees, then think about the day, think about my problems,” Julia said. “It was really a beautiful experience.”

Being close to nature in L.A.

A place of peace. A place close to nature. That’s how many survey respondents described their communities before the fires.

An illustration of the Via Bluffs looking toward Santa Monica. Pacific Palisades resident Sue Pascoe would often visit these bluffs with her dogs on their walks around the neighborhood before her home was destroyed in the fire.

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For Sue Pascoe, walking her dogs along the Via De Las Olas Bluffs in Pacific Palisades was a treasure.

She would pass by the different-styled homes and streets lined with trees. Now, the neighborhood has been mostly destroyed by the Palisades Fire, including Pascoe’s home of three decades.

“You can see dolphins, you can see the waves, you can get the wind. The wind is so great up here. Beautiful breezes. You can see the ships going out,” Pascoe said. “It’s a marvelous place to walk.”

Pascoe is the editor and owner of the local Circling the News site, where she writes about the Westside, including Pacific Palisades. She often meets with other residents to talk about how things are going and to support one another.

She said the people are what made the Palisades so special.

“Kids, schools, religion, made this a very, very good place for families,” Pascoe said. “I think people recognized how good it was for families and that’s why they moved here.”

Altadena resident Elizabeth Gonzalez said she misses the backyard view of the San Gabriel Mountains.

Her parents bought her childhood home in Janes Village in Altadena in 1995. The home is one of a handful left on its block in West Altadena. It was professionally remediated after the fires.

Elizabeth Gonzalez grew up in a home in the Janes Village neighborhood in West Altadena. The home she was renting with her family in Pasadena was destroyed in the Eaton Fire.

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Gonzalez rented a home in Altadena for 13 years with her husband and children. It was destroyed in the fire. Now, she said, her family will most likely live in an RV in the driveway of her parent’s surviving home until they can get stable housing figured out .

“It’s hard for me to believe that block after block is gone,” Gonzalez said. “Old wise trees, luscious lawns and charming old homes are gone.”

An illustration of a sign found in West Altadena's Janes Village neighborhood that shows a drawing of the architecture of the homes.

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Gonzalez always admired the architecture of the Janes Village homes in Altadena, which she said looked like the cartoon homes in classic Disney movies. She was about 12 years old when they first moved into the neighborhood.

"They’re little cottages,” she said, remembering the homes. “They’re pointy and kind of interesting looking … As kids we thought they looked like the Snow White house.”

“Somehow my parents ended up living somewhere that is [visually] very close to the small towns in Mexico that they grew up in,” Gonzalez said. “I always thought that was pretty cool.”

Another Pasadena resident, Rebecca Rea, remembers the community and connection she found in nature in Altadena on her miles-long walks before the Eaton Fire.

An illustration of Altadena wildlife, including a bear, mountain lion, parrot and coyote, along with poppies. Bears are often found around the Altadena foothills, and parrots can be heard flying around or in the trees.

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Rea would go on 12-mile walks starting from Lake Avenue and Orange Grove Boulevard in Pasadena, walk toward the hills and end on Altadena Drive. She appreciated the different homes and small businesses that used to line her route, including the Rancho Bar, a local dive bar that was destroyed in the fire, and the wildlife that lived in the mountains.

“I knew every garden. I knew every tree. I made friends with the coyotes for heaven’s sake,” Rea said. “It was just so very, very beautiful.”

The next chapter

Many who responded to our survey wondered about what comes next.

They shared a hope that Altadena and Pacific Palisades will rebuild and not be remembered only for the deadly fires, but for what makes these places special to Los Angeles.

“It’s going to take a long time to rebuild what it once was,” said Julia, the teen from Altadena. “But I think we have such a great community here that we can rebuild to be something better and brighter than we were.”

The annual Polar Bears Plunge at Cabrillo Beach could look a little different this year as the beach in San Pedro remained closed as of Tuesday afternoon.

Every year on New Year's Day, swimmers take a frigid dip into the ocean water, marking the beginning of the new year. But in 2026, that plunge might not happen.

Cabrillo Beach has been closed to swimmers since last Wednesday after 100,000 gallons of sewage contaminated the water, according to public health officials. Officials continue to urge swimmers to stay out of the water and to not make contact with wet sand.

But organizers of the annual plunge say the beloved tradition will go on, even if that means no swimming. That includes the yearly king and queen coronation, hot cocoa and pastries.

“We are just playing it by ear, I know that there is testing for the water being done, but we have not heard back,” Lisa Guerr, president of the Cabrillo Beach Polar Bears club, told LAist. “We are leaving it up to our lifeguards to have the most up-to-date information and make the decision for us. As of now, we are continuing on as planned.”

What’s going on in the water? 

Officials blame a sewer pipe in Carson for causing the spill, which was stopped last Wednesday, according to the L.A. County Sanitation District. The district said the cleanup at the site was completed the next day.

A spokesperson for the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said staff collected water samples for testing and that they noticed yesterday that the closure signs at the beach were removed.

That signage has since been reposted and lifeguards were notified, officials told LAist.

The county said touching the water during a beach closure may cause illness, especially in children, the elderly and susceptible people.

According to the county, “swimmers should avoid water contact at the posted areas of the beach until the hazardous condition has ended."

Soon after President Donald Trump’s inauguration last January, his administration took a series of actions that touched virtually every aspect of public education in Southern California.

While some of those policies have since been paused or rolled back, the changes left many educators and families nervous and frustrated.

Here’s a round-up of some of the big moments from 2025.

Immigration fears keep students out of school

In April, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security showed up at two LAUSD schools to conduct what officials at the agency described as “wellness checks” on some immigrant students. The agents were turned away.

Widespread immigration sweeps started in L.A. a few months later.

Local school leaders, parents and students have said that fear has at times kept kids from attending school and high school principals across the country reported similar experiences.

We’ve also seen acts of resistance. As early as February, students walked out to protest Trump’s policies. Teachers and volunteers with organizations like Union del Barrio began patrolling neighborhoods near schools to sound an alarm if there was any suspected immigration enforcement activity.

Schools have also provided additional resources, including busing for students afraid to walk to school and know-your-rights training for parents.

Immigration concerns also stretched into early childhood education. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services said in July that children without legal status would be barred from Head Start programs. That directive was paused by the administration, and then rejected by a federal judge.

An inspirational message decorates the wall of a Head Start classroom.

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Federal budget cuts hit hard

The administration made a number of budget cuts to agencies that serve students and their families.

Early in the year, the administration slashed Department of Education staff.

The department also made steep cuts to its civil rights office in March, which already faced a backlog of complaints. Seven of 12 regional Office for Civil Rights branches were shuttered, including one in San Francisco, which handled complaints filed in California. The cases involve families trying to get services for students with disabilities, allegations of bias related to race and religion, and claims of sexual violence.

Many attorneys with the Office for Civil Rights were called back to work in December as the backlog of complaints became untenable.

The administration also restructured its funding of homeless services, meaning that the future may be even rougher for L.A. families seeking housing. Data reviewed by LAist show the number of unsheltered L.A. County children and families rose in 2025.

The National Blue Ribbon Schools Program was eliminated in 2025. The end of the program sunsets a long-standing celebration of local school achievements. LAist preserved the records of California winners.

And the shutdown this fall over the federal budget also ensnared children and others who rely on food assistance from SNAP and WIC. In some cases, school districts invested in expanded meal programs to help make up for lost meals.

Diversity, equity and inclusion were targeted

The Trump administration has also sought to eliminate language associated with historically under-served communities across public education:

• Some Head Start centers were told to avoid words like “Black,” “minority,” and “trauma” in their funding applications.
• Under pressure to avoid certain terms, educators in TK-12 have had to figure out different approaches to improve academic outcomes and mental health for Black students.
• Colleges and universities such as the University of Southern California have eliminated “diversity, equity and inclusion” as stated values.

Trump also took other actions. He issued an executive order to end public service loan forgiveness for people who work at places that “advance illegal immigration, terrorism, discrimination and violent protests.”

Public higher education in California also found itself in unfriendly territory

In March, the Justice Department announced an investigation into University of California campuses related to allegations of antisemitism.

A few months later, the Justice Department revealed the results of an investigation into UCLA, alleging it found “indifference” to “a hostile educational environment for Jewish and Israeli students” — much like at Harvard, Columbia and other elite universities. To settle those and other claims, the Trump administration demanded $1 billion from UCLA.

The National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health froze hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding that had been allocated to the university’s researchers. This cut funding for a wide variety of projects — everything from research into pediatric cancer to how our gut microbiome affects our health.

Most of UCLA’s frozen research funding was restored by late September, following court orders. The UC system is still in negotiations with the Trump administration.