The Brief

Seven western states are now at an impasse over how to keep the Colorado River from collapsing due to climate change and overuse.

On Wednesday, the states of California, Arizona and Nevada released their plan outlining how they’d like to manage the river over the next twenty years. The states of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico have released a separate, competing plan.

The two factions — known as the Lower and Upper Basin states respectively — vehemently disagree over many of the most important details, including which states should reduce their water use to account for climate change, and by how much.

Current agreements expire in 2026. Beyond that, there’s no certainty for farmers, cities and businesses that rely on Colorado River water for growing food, supporting rural economies, and supplying drinking water to millions of people.

"The two plans are diametrically opposed," said Pat Mulroy, a Colorado River policy expert and the former lead negotiator for the state of Nevada on Colorado River issues. But, she still believes there is a "glimmer of hope" for the seven states to come to an agreement.

Dispute puts economies at risk

It’s hard to overstate the importance of the Colorado River in the American West. If you take a shower in Los Angeles, eat broccoli in New York City in January, or see Cirque Du Soleil in Las Vegas, you have used Colorado River water. The 1450-mile long river provides drinking water to 40 million people from Wyoming to Mexico, and its water irrigates nearly all the vegetables Americans eat in the winter.

In Southern California alone, 25% of drinking water comes from the Colorado River. The rest comes from the Sierra Nevada and local sources.

Why the river is shrinking

This aerial view shows the All-American Canal along the U.S.-Mexico in Imperial Valley.

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Sandy Huffaker

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The current crisis on the Colorado River began in the early 2000s, when water experts began to realize the so-called “Millennium Drought” wasn’t going away. Over the next few years, they realized that climate change was dramatically shrinking the river’s flow. Rising temperatures meant less snowfall in the Rocky Mountains, which is the source of the Colorado River’s water, and more evaporation from big reservoirs like Lake Mead and Lake Powell — essentially, a hot drought.

Scientists now believe that for every degree Celsius the climate warms, the Colorado River shrinks by 8%. They predict the river’s flow to continue shrinking by up to 30% by mid-century.

Where current negotiations stand

Management of the Colorado River is generally left to the seven states that use the river and the federal Bureau of Reclamation. Mexico and thirty tribal nations also have rights to Colorado River water, but do not have a formal seat at the negotiating table.

The seven states come together to hash out a deal whenever a new problem on the river presents itself, like increasing use by cities, drought, or — currently — climate change.

The current management plan, which regulates things like how much water gets released from major dams, and how water shortages are shared, expires in 2026.

The competing plans released today would cover the next few decades beyond 2026, during which the river is expected to continue to shrink.

The threat of "deadpool"

In order for Colorado River water to be used by millions of people downstream, it must first pass through two large dams.

But in 2022, water levels in the reservoirs behind those dams dropped to their lowest levels ever — prompting fears that the waterline would fall below the holes on the dams, and get stuck in the reservoirs, cutting off water to everyone in Arizona, Nevada and California.

Lake Mead in TK

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Lake Mead in July 2022, at just 27% of capacity, a historic low.

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Courtesy NASA

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To avoid this scenario, called “deadpool,” negotiators from California and Arizona – which use the most Colorado River water of any states — agreed last summer to massive temporary cuts in water usage.

Those cuts, plus last year's extraordinarily wet winter, seem to be enough to avoid deadpool in the near future, the Bureau of Reclamation announced Tuesday.

Now, negotiators are trying to figure out how to make some of those cuts permanent, and how much more they need to cut in the future.

Both basins agree the amount of water they use needs to be more responsive to real-time snowpack and reservoir levels, instead of using a set amount every year. But they disagree how exactly to calculate that, and who should be taking the cuts.

The Upper Basin’s proposal

The Upper Basin states — which use far less water than the Lower Basin — think the Lower Basin should shoulder all the responsibility for cutting back in the future.

Their argument has two parts:

First, they argue that lower snowpack and reservoir levels have already forced cities and farmers in the Upper Basin to use less water, so they should not have to cut back any further.

Second, they argue that because the Upper Basin has never used all of the Colorado River water that it’s legally entitled to, they’re not obligated to make any further cuts to address climate change.

“We don't know how much water we're going to have each year. We can't make promises we can't keep,” said Amy Ostdiek of the Colorado Water Conservation Board.

Ostdiek said the Upper Basin may be willing to make some cuts on a voluntary basis, but did not go into specifics.

The Lower Basin’s proposal

California and Arizona have already committed to slashing their water use dramatically, and say they’ll continue to do so in the future. But they think any further cuts to respond to the effects of climate change should be shared by all seven states.

“Adapting to climate change is not just the responsibility of one state or one basin or just the cities or farms,” said JB Hamby, the lead negotiator from California. “It is all of our collective responsibility. Putting the entire burden of climate change on one person or another will result in conflict, and we can do better than that.”

The Lower Basin argues that when reservoir levels drop dangerously low, all seven states need to do their part to avoid deadpool.

"It's a very big gap," said Eric Kuhn, a former water manager for the Upper Colorado River Basin who now writes about the river. "Similar numbers, similar concepts, but who's responsible is a very big difference."

What happens now?

Negotiators from both the Upper and Lower Basin say they still hope to come up with a plan that they all can live with.

Mulroy, the former lead negotiator for Nevada, said she was "pleasantly surprised" to see that the Upper Basin had offered to make voluntary cuts, and that she thought it provided an opening for continuing the negotiations.

"Do I think it's a long road to resolution? Yes. But the fact that last year was a great winter, and this one's a relatively decent winter, I think it buys them some time," she said.

If the seven states can't agree on a compromise, the federal Bureau of Reclamation may propose its own plan, which may not be popular with anyone. And depending on the results of this fall’s election, a new administration could throw out anything proposed by the current Bureau of Reclamation.

There’s also a risk that the disagreement could end up in the Supreme Court — which many experts say would be a disaster, as the case could drag on for years and in the interim, there would be little clarity about how to manage the river.

In the wake of the Eaton Fire, Altadena and Pasadena’s music community have really shown up to support fire survivors, especially fellow musicians who lost instruments and record collections.

That effort continues this weekend with a special donation concert at a Pasadena record store, with the aim of getting vinyl records back in the hands of survivors who lost their collections.

“You know, our name is Healing Force of the Universe, and I think that gives me a pretty clear direction… especially after the fires,” said Austin Manuel, founder of Pasadena record store, where Sunday’s show will be held.

The record donation effort is the brainchild of musician Brandon Jay, who founded the nonprofit Altadena Musicians after losing his home and almost all of his family’s instruments in the Eaton Fire. Through Altadena Musicians’s donation and registry platform, Jay said he and his partners have helped some 1,200 fire survivors get their music instruments back.

Brandon Jay.

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Robert Garrova

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LAist

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Now, that effort has fanned out to restoring vinyl record collections.

“All of that stuff evaporated for thousands of people,” Jay said. “Look at your own record collection and be like, ‘Wow, what if that whole thing disappeared?’”

You might know Jay from several bands over the years, including Lutefisk, a 1990s alt-rock band based in Los Angeles. He and his wife, Gwendolyn Sanford, composed music for TV shows, including Orange is the New Black and Weeds.

Jay plans to play some holiday tunes at Sunday's record donation show (which LAist is the media sponsor), along with fellow musician Daniel Brummel of Sanglorians. Brummel, who was also a founding member of Pasadena’s indie-rock sensation Ozma, said he was grateful to Jay for his fire recovery work and to Manuel for making Healing Force available for shows like this.

Brummel, who came close to losing his own home in the Eaton Fire, recalled a show he played at Healing Force back in March.

Ryen Slegr (left) and Daniel Brummel perform with their band, Ozma, on the 2014 Weezer Cruise.

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“The trauma of the fires was still really fresh,” Brummel said. After playing a cover of Rufus Wainwright’s “Going to a Town,” that night — which includes the lyrics “I’m going to a town that has already been burnt down” — Brummel said his neighbors in the audience told him the rendition hit them hard. “It felt really powerful. And without that space, it just wouldn’t have occurred.”

Details

Healing Force of the Universe Record Donation Show
Featuring: Quasar (aka Brandon Jay), Sanglorians (Daniel Brummel) and The Acrylic.
Sunday, Dec. 14; 2 to 5 p.m.
1200 E. Walnut St., Pasadena
Tickets are $15 or you can donate 5 or more records at the door. More info here.

Topline:

The case: In September, the city settled a lawsuit brought forward by two brothers in their 70s who said they suffered serious injuries after an LAPD officer crashed into their car. Days before the $18 million settlement was reached, lawyers for the brothers said Feldstein Soto called an expert witness testifying for the plaintiffs and “attempted to ingratiate herself with him and asked him to make a contribution to her political campaign,” according to a sworn declaration to the court by the plaintiffs’ attorney, Robert Glassman.

The response: Feldstein Soto did not respond to an interview request. Her spokesperson said the settlement “had nothing to do” with the expert witness. Her campaign manager told LAist the city attorney had been making a routine fundraising call and did not know the person had a role in the case, nor that there were pending requests for her office to pay him fees.

What Jurado says: In a statement to LAist, Jurado said she wants to “make sure that the city’s legal leadership is guided by integrity and accountability, especially when their choices affect public trust, civic rights and the city’s limited resources."

What’s next: The motion needs to go through a few committees before reaching the full City Council. If it passes, the motion calls for the city attorney to “report to council in closed session within 45 days regarding the ethics breach violation and give updates to the City Council."

Every year in Santa Ana, Luis Cantabrana turns the front of his home into an elaborate altar in honor of La Virgen de Guadalupe that draws hundreds of visitors.

Along the front of the house, the multi-colored altar is filled with lights, flowers and a stained-glass tapestry behind a sculpture of the Lady of Guadalupe. Cantabrana’s roof also is lit up with the green, white and red lights that spell out “Virgen de Guadalupe” and a cross.

Visitors are welcomed with music and the smell of roses as they celebrate the saint, but this year’s gathering comes after a dark year for immigrant communities.

Luis Cantabrana stands in front of the stunning altar he built in front of his home in honor of La Virgen de Guadalupe. Every year, his display draws hundreds of visitors.

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Destiny Torres

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Why do they celebrate? 

In 1513, the Virgin Mary appeared before St. Juan Diego between Dec. 9 and Dec. 12, asking him to build a church in her honor. Her image — a brown-skinned woman wearing a green veil with her hands together in prayer and an angel at her feet — miraculously appeared on his cloak.

To celebrate in Santa Ana, worshippers gathered late-night Wednesday and in the very early hours Dec. 12 to pray the rosary, sing hymns and celebrate the saint.

Cantabrana has hosted worshippers at his home for 27 years — 17 in Santa Ana.

The altar started out small, he said, and over the years, he added a fabric background, more lights and flowers (lots and lots of flowers).

“It started with me making a promise to la Virgen de Guadalupe that while I had life and a home to build an altar, that I would do it,” Cantabrana said. “Everything you see in photos and videos is pretty, but when you come and see it live, it's more than pretty. It's beautiful.”

The Santa Ana home's elaborate altar in honor of La Virgen de Guadalupe draws hundreds of visitors each year.

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Destiny Torres

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LAist

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Gathering in a time of turmoil 

Many also look to the Lady of Guadalupe for protection, especially at a time when federal enforcement has rattled immigrant communities.

“People don’t want to go to work, they don’t want to take their kids to school, but the love we have for our Virgen de Guadalupe,” Cantabrana said. “We see that la Virgen de Guadalupe has a lot of power, and so we know immigration [enforcement] won’t come here.”

Margarita Lopez of Garden Grove has been visiting the altar for three years with her husband. She’s been celebrating the Virgencita since she was a young girl. Honoring the saint is as important now as ever, she said.

“We ask, and she performs miracles,” Lopez said.

Claudia Tapia, a lifelong Santa Ana resident, said the Virgin Mary represents strength.

“Right now, with everything going on, a lot of our families [have] turned and prayed to the Virgen for strength during these times,” Tapia said. “She's a very strong symbol of Mexican culture, of unity, of faith and of resilience.”

See it for yourself

The shrine will stay up into the new year on the corner of Broadway and Camile Street.