A man walks into Dolores Mission Church in Boyle Heights.
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Andrew Lopez
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Boyle Heights Beat
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Topline:
Legal experts note that immigration enforcement at or near churches is still relatively rare, but faith leaders and advocates are urging pastors to develop response plans and educate congregants about their rights.
Some background: Recent immigration enforcement actions near places of worship have raised concerns among faith leaders across Los Angeles about what protections churches actually have. While in the past, “sensitive locations” like schools, hospitals and parishes were spared from raids, President Donald Trump ended that policy. That means U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement can enter and investigate any place that is considered public — including churches.
East L.A. training: Pastor Carlos Rincon of Centro de Vida Victoriosa in East Los Angeles recently hosted a “Know Your Rights: Church and Immigrant Protection” training for pastors and church leaders.
Read on... for what experts say churches should know.
A man detained last June in the parking lot of a church in Downey.
A taco vendor taken in January during a weekly food distribution outside a church in the San Fernando Valley.
Recent immigration enforcement actions near places of worship have raised concerns among faith leaders across Los Angeles about what protections churches actually have. While in the past, “sensitive locations” like schools, hospitals and parishes were spared from raids, President Donald Trump ended that policy. That means U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement can enter and investigate any place that is considered public — including churches.
Legal experts note that immigration enforcement at or near churches is still relatively rare, but faith leaders and advocates are urging pastors to develop response plans and educate congregants about their rights
Pastor Carlos Rincon of Centro de Vida Victoriosa in East Los Angeles recently hosted a “Know Your Rights: Church and Immigrant Protection” training for pastors and church leaders.
The workshop was led by the UC Irvine Law Immigrant and Racial Justice Solidarity Clinic.
Rincon said the training aimed to counter misinformation circulating within Latino churches. He said other pastors requested the training, and he hoped it would also help leaders of small Bible study groups within his own church.
Here’s what legal experts and advocates say churches should know.
What areas of a church are considered public?
In general, any area that is open and accessible to the public is also open to immigration agents. Within church grounds, areas that are freely open to visitors can be considered public.
This can include:
Parking lots — even if they are on private property — if access is not restricted by personnel.
Church lobbies, especially when doors are open and there’s heavy foot traffic before and after services.
The nave, or any central area where congregants gather for worship
But legal experts say there’s no single factor that determines whether a place is considered public or private.
“There’s no rigid line of, ‘This is for sure going to be public. This is for sure going to be private.’ It’s depending on the court’s analysis,” said Melissa Inda, a law student at the Irvine School of Law.
What areas of a church are considered private?
Areas generally considered private are:
Confession boxes, where privacy is expected. However, that can change if left open.
Offices, especially if doors are closed and clearly marked as private
The sacristy, or the area typically near an altar where clergy prepare for services and sacred items are stored
Locked storage closets exclusively used by staff or selected people
Bathrooms reserved for employees or clergy members
The Centro de Vida Victoriosa Church in East LA on March 10, 2026.
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Andrew Lopez
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Boyle Heights Beat
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What does this mean for your place of worship?
Immigration agents may enter and investigate public spaces of church property that are open to congregants or visitors.
However, agents generally cannot enter private spaces unless they have a warrant signed by a judge. In places of worship, for example, ICE would need a judicial warrant to enter a religious leader’s private office, if it was treated as a private area.
Additionally, agents can also enter private spaces if given “consent from somebody who appears to have the authority to give it, such as staff members,” Inda said.
What can churches do to prepare?
Identify non-public spaces: Places of worship should clearly mark what areas are private and which are open to the public at certain times.
Create a response plan: Churches should designate a primary person or persons who will interact with ICE.
Point persons can include staff or volunteers, not just pastors.
Church members should identify risk factors and discuss their comfort levels in interacting with federal agents.
Educate staff and volunteers: Church leaders should make everyone aware of the plan.
Residents fight to rebuild without being displaced
By Rafael Agustin | CHANGE ME
Published March 13, 2026 12:00 PM
The “My LA” series looks at the evolution of LA’s historic neighborhoods and communities
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Courtesy of Rafael Agustin
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Topline:
As part of The LA Local's “My LA” series, Rafael Augustin writes about rebuilding after the Eaton fire and the risk of displacement.
Threat of displacement: Days into the Eaton fire, Augustin spoke with Francisco Sánchez, associate administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration under President Joe Biden, who oversees the Office of Disaster Recovery and Resilience. Sánchez flew in from Washington, D.C. to see the devastation caused by the Eaton and Palisades fires. Sanchez said something to him that's stayed with Augustin over a year later - “You have to fight like hell to make sure what happened in Hawaii doesn’t happen to you,” he said. “They will turn Altadena into condos, if you let them.”
Outside investors: Augustin's neighbors scattered across Los Angeles County and began receiving offers from real estate agents and private equity firms that had quietly moved into the region. Before the fire, private acquisitions accounted for about 5% of home sales in Altadena. Four months later, they accounted for nearly 50%.
The story first appeared on The LA Local. Editor’s note: This is part of our “My LA” series — a look at how changing demographics are shifting culture in LA’s historic neighborhoods and communities — told by the people from those communities.
It’s Jan. 11, 2025, and I’m sitting in a restaurant in downtown Los Angeles fighting the overwhelming urge to cry.
I just learned my house survived the Eaton Fire, but I can’t shake the tremor in my friends’ voices who lost theirs. The fire is 15% contained — four days into what would become the second-most destructive fire in California history.
Across from me sits Francisco Sánchez, associate administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration under President Joe Biden, who oversees the Office of Disaster Recovery and Resilience. Sánchez flew in from Washington, D.C. to see the devastation caused by the Eaton and Palisades fires.
In disaster-response circles, he’s something of a legend. He helped coordinate the rapid conversion of the Houston Astrodome to house families displaced by Hurricane Katrina. But he’s also about to lose his job. The Trump administration is set to take over the federal government in nine days.
I run through the facts about Altadena. One in five residents is Black. One in four is Latino. The median age is 45.
We talk about resiliency and rebuilding. We talk about neighbors banding together to collectively bargain with contractors. We talk about the Army Corps of Engineers choosing not to conduct soil testing in Altadena — the first time it has declined to do so after a major fire in two decades.
But it’s the last thing Sánchez tells me that stays with me a year later.
“You have to fight like hell to make sure what happened in Hawaii doesn’t happen to you,” he said. “They will turn Altadena into condos, if you let them.”
Firefighters battling a blaze in Altadena
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Brian Feinzimer
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LAist
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Breathing was difficult
In the spring, the calls began.
Neighbors scattered across Los Angeles County started receiving offers from real estate agents and private equity firms that had quietly moved into the region.
Before the fire, private acquisitions accounted for about 5% of home sales in Altadena. Four months later, they accounted for nearly 50%.
What Sánchez warned about was already happening. Breathing was still difficult on my block.
The Eaton Fire began as a wildfire but quickly became an urban fire. The Los Angeles Times compared the toxicity levels in our area to New York City after the Sept. 11 attacks.
I worried about neighbors — mostly people of color — whose homes survived but who had little choice but to return quickly because they lacked sufficient insurance coverage.
I worried about the air we were breathing. But no one seemed able to tell me who was responsible for monitoring it.
At the disaster center on Woodbury Road, sympathetic county officials told me the state of California oversaw air quality. I called my state senator, Sen. Sasha Renée Pérez.
Pérez, a newly elected Democrat and former mayor, took my calls — and those of my neighbors — seriously. She contacted the governor’s office and spoke with the team responsible for air quality in Altadena.
The response she received was: “It’s complicated.” That might have been the understatement of the year.
The My LA series looks at how changing demographics are shifting culture in LA’s historic neighborhoods and communities — told by the people from those communities.
Moments of grace
Months passed.
It became heartbreaking to watch Altadena residents leave LA altogether because they couldn’t afford to live anywhere else in the city. It was even harder to watch my neighbor across the street sell his home after placing an “Altadena Is Not for Sale” sign on his lawn.
Still, amid the devastation, there were moments of grace.
Volunteers from across Los Angeles flooded the greater Pasadena area to help after the fire. Residents leaned on the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), mutual aid networks, family members, local churches and the Los Angeles Fire Department Foundation.
I volunteered at — and relied on — community donation centers myself. One of the most meaningful was the Pasadena Community Job Center, which served the region’s undocumented population.
Even though my home didn’t burn, I had to evacuate after high levels of lead were detected inside.
From wherever I was staying, I drove an hour to attend town halls, join community meetings, ask questions at disaster centers and speak with elected officials.
Nearly half of Altadena — an unincorporated foothill community long known for its diversity and working-class stability — had burned.
Firefighters battle to save a home
Only one firetruck
Months later, Sánchez called again.
He was no longer a federal employee, but he still checked in on me and my neighbors. He suggested I attend a Crisis Management Academy at Hayes Boone in downtown LA, where he sat on the board.
I pulled my suit from a vacuum-sealed remediation bag and went.
By chance, I sat next to Rick Crawford, the emergency and crisis management coordinator for the U.S. Capitol and Supreme Court and a former battalion chief with the Los Angeles Fire Department.
I told him I lived west of Lake Avenue — historically the predominantly Black, Latino and working-class side of Altadena.
Evacuation notices arrived hours later than they did in wealthier neighborhoods east of Lake Avenue — if they arrived at all. My family never received one.
I asked Crawford if he believed racism explained the disparity. He told me something worse might have happened.
The night before the fires, he said, officials knew a severe wind event was coming. Yet staffing levels were not increased.
“Business as usual,” he called it.
When the Palisades Fire ignited, city resources were quickly stretched. The city turned to the county for help. When the Eaton Fire exploded, the county deployed the firefighters it had left to protect Altadena.
By the time flames reached west of Lake Avenue, resources were gone.
A failure of preparation turned into a failure of response — one that hit my side of Altadena hardest.
The Fair Oaks Burger restaurant became a community rallying point
The sounds of construction
One year later, Altadena is still waiting.
Friends who lost their homes are waiting for settlements from Southern California Edison Co., which investigators believe caused the Eaton Fire, to determine whether they can rebuild at all.
Trial is scheduled for January 2027. A judge recently ordered Edison to produce witnesses when called, criticizing attempts to prolong the discovery process for attorneys representing fire victims. A grand jury is also considering whether to indict the utility company in connection with the 19 deaths in Altadena.
Those of us who have returned do what we can to support one another — and the small businesses trying to survive.
In those days, my business meetings happened at Miya, Unincorporated Coffee or Fair Oaks Burger.
Community advocates — including Altadena for Accountability and Altadena Rising, along with Pérez — pushed the California Department of Justice to open a civil rights investigation into the evacuation response in West Altadena.
Walking along Altadena Drive, I thought about the homes and gardens that had once lined the street.
Reconstruction has begun, slowly. The sound of construction — loud, constant — is an inconvenience. But it’s better than the eerie silence that followed the fire.
On Mariposa Street, I passed the empty space where Amara Kitchen and Altadena Hardware had once stood.
Next door, something new appeared. Betsy, the restaurant from chef Tyler Wells — who also lost his home in the fire — was drawing diners from across LA for its live-fire cooking.
It lifted my spirits to see people coming to Altadena again. But as a local resident, I still struggled to get a reservation.
Maybe that was the first glimpse of what rebuilding might look like: those with money and privilege dining easily, while the rest of us remain on the waiting list.
The rebuild is slow. The pain is enormous. But the resilience of Altadena is fierce.
We fight for accountability, truth and justice. We fight for the right to rebuild our town as it once was. Most of all, we fight for one another.
Because, as labor leader Mary Harris “Mother” Jones once said: “Pray for the dead, and fight like hell for the living.”
Is your neighborhood changing? We want to hear your story. Whether you’ve lived on your block for forty years or four, we want to know: What does “home” mean to you right now?Share a brief memory or a thought on how your neighborhood is changing with us at pitches@thelalocal.org. We’ll feature some of our favorite responses in our newsletter, and if your story sparks something deeper, we may reach out to commission a full-length piece (yes, we pay our writers!)
People inspect the site of a destroyed branch of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a non-bank financial institution run by Hezbollah, which was hit by an Israeli airstrike in central Beirut, Thursday, March 12, 2026.
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Hussein Malla
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AP
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Topline:
The U.S. military said on Friday that all six crew members were killed when a KC-135 refueling aircraft went down in Iraq, raising the death toll after two weeks of war with Iran.
More details: The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which oversees the Middle East, reported an unspecified incident involving two aircraft Thursday. It said the U.S. KC-135 refueling aircraft was lost in western Iraq, while the other landed safely. It is investigating the circumstances but confirmed the "loss of the aircraft was not due to hostile fire or friendly fire."
Some background: The news came as President Trump and his defense secretary touted success in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran but complained about negative media coverage of Operation Epic Fury.
Read on... for more updates on the war with Iran.
The U.S. military said on Friday that all six crew members were killed when a KC-135 refueling aircraft went down in Iraq, raising the death toll after two weeks of war with Iran.
The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which oversees the Middle East, reported an unspecified incident involving two aircraft Thursday. It said the U.S. KC-135 refueling aircraft was lost in western Iraq, while the other landed safely. It is investigating the circumstances but confirmed the "loss of the aircraft was not due to hostile fire or friendly fire."
The news came as President Trump and his defense secretary touted success in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran but complained about negative media coverage of Operation Epic Fury.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Friday that joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes have hit more than 15,000 targets and injured the new Iranian supreme leader.
President Trump, in a post on Truth Social, said the U.S. is "totally destroying" Iran's regime, militarily and economically.
Late Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had weakened Iran's rulers, but it may not be enough to topple them — the Iranian people would have to do that.
Iranian and Lebanese health officials and Israeli authorities reported more than 1,300 people killed in Iran, 773 people in Lebanon and 12 civilians in Israel, as well as two Israeli soldiers killed in Lebanon. Wednesday's aircraft crash over Iraq brings the U.S. military death toll to 13, seven of whom were killed in combat. Eight U.S. service members are severely injured, according to the Pentagon.
The humanitarian toll also deepened as the total number of people displaced by the fighting in Iran and Lebanon reached into the millions.
Here are further updates about the conflict.
Officials brace for an end without a deal — and the risk of a "war routine"
A senior official in the region, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss internal deliberations, told NPR they expected the war to last at least another week, and that Israeli leaders increasingly believe the U.S. and Israel will end the war unilaterally, without a negotiated agreement. In such a scenario, the official said, Iran and allied groups, including the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Houthi rebels in Yemen, could establish a new normal of intermittent fire at Israel, prompting repeated Israeli retaliation.
The official said that kind of tit-for-tat exchange would leave Israelis living with an intolerable "war routine" even if the intensity of the conflict fades.
The official also said Israel is not ruling out an expanded ground operation in southern Lebanon, but described Israel as holding back so far from striking broad civilian infrastructure, largely because the U.S. sees Lebanon as a partner.
— Daniel Estrin, Carrie Kahn
Israel expands strikes in Iran and hits Hezbollah targets in Lebanon
Israel's air force said Friday it struck more than 200 targets over the past day in western and central Iran, including ballistic missile launchers, air defense systems and weapons manufacturing sites.
The military said the strikes included simultaneous strikes in Tehran, Shiraz and Ahvaz. They targeted regime infrastructure, including an underground site used to produce and store ballistic missiles, as well as a central air-defense base.
In Lebanon, Israel said it hit Hezbollah command centers in the country's south and in central Beirut.
A senior official in the region, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, said the strike on Beirut's bustling Bachura neighborhood, located near the prime minister's office, was symbolic, and meant to send a message that Israel will not tolerate Hezbollah's fire much longer.
Lebanon's president, Joseph Aoun, has called for direct talks with Israel to end the bombing. Israel has not responded publicly on the matter.
The Israeli military also said it struck the Al-Zrariya Bridge over the Litani River, describing it as a key crossing used by Hezbollah fighters and an area from which launchers had been positioned.
— Hadeel Al-Shalchi and Rebecca Rosman
Iran and Hezbollah attacks hit Israel overnight; dozens treated for minor injuries
An Iranian ballistic missile in the northern Israeli town of Zarzir left dozens lightly wounded, according to Israel's emergency services organization, Magen David Adom.
One person was reported to be in moderate condition and was being treated after being hit with shrapnel. Another 57 people were being treated for minor injuries, mostly from glass shards.
Hezbollah also continued firing into northern Israel overnight, and Israel's military said its air defense and strike operations were responding across both fronts.
— Rebecca Rosman
U.S. temporarily eases Russian oil sanctions for cargoes already at sea
The Trump administration issued a temporary authorization allowing countries to purchase Russian oil already stranded at sea. It argued the move is a narrowly tailored step to stabilize energy markets.
In a post on X, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the measure applies only to oil "already in transit" and will not provide significant financial benefit to Russia.
In a statement published last week, a number of top Senate Democrats warned such a move would weaken sanctions and benefit Russia as energy prices rise.
— Rebecca Rosman
French soldier killed in attack in Iraq
French President Emmanuel Macron said Friday a French soldier was killed in an attack in the Irbil region of Iraq that left several other French soldiers wounded.
Macron called the attack "unacceptable" and said the war in Iran cannot justify strikes on forces deployed in Iraq as part of the fight against ISIS.
Since the start of the war with Iran, the French president has underlined his concerns about international law not being respected, but also deployed several naval vessels to the Eastern Mediterranean, near Cyprus, to protect French military bases and citizens in the region. French officials have insisted it is a defensive, rather than an offensive mission.
— Eleanor Beardsley
Daniel Estrin and Carrie Kahn contributed to this report from Tel Aviv, Hadeel Al-Shalchi contributed from Beirut, Jane Arraf from Irbil, Rebecca Rosman and Eleanor Beardsley from Paris. Copyright 2026 NPR
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Yusra Farzan
has been covering the Rancho Palos Verdes landslide since 2023.
Published March 13, 2026 11:26 AM
A section of Narcissa Drive is closed due to landslide movement in the Portuguese Bend neighborhood of Rancho Palos Verdes as seen on September 1, 2024.
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Brian Feinzimer
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LAist
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Topline:
Land movement has increased in the Rancho Palos Verdes landslide area after historic storms over the recent holidays.
Why it matters: City officials said in some parts of the ancient landslide in the Portuguese Bend area of the city, land movement increased to 2 inches a week, that’s up from the average 1.74 inches per week.
How we got here: Movement was minimal in the landslide complex for decades. But above average rainfall in 2022 and 2023 set off a rapid increase in movement — up to 1 foot a week in some places — which prompted Southern California Edison and SoCalGas to shut off utilities for hundreds of residents.
Gas prices at a station in Northridge on March 9, 2026. Gas prices have recently increased in the state as the U.S. war with Iran intensifies.
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Zin Chiang
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CalMatters
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Topline:
Iran war spikes gas prices, putting spotlight on California's refinery profit-cap rules and the state's shrinking fuel supply options.
The backstory: Three years ago, California built a first-in-the-nation system aimed at protecting drivers when oil markets turn calamitous. The legislature passed it. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed it. He proclaimed “California took on Big Oil and won.” Its author, then-Sen. Nancy Skinner called it a “landmark law” that “will allow us to hold oil companies accountable if they pad their profits at the expense of hard-working families.”
Why it matters: The law — which gave regulators the power to cap refinery profits and penalize oil companies for price gouging — has never been used. Instead, last year, the California Energy Commission voted to delay the rules for five years. Skinner – who wrote the law as a Senator – was absent when her own commission voted to delay it.
Read on... for more about this law and why California hasn't used it now.
Three years ago, California built a first-in-the-nation system aimed at protecting drivers when oil markets turn calamitous. The legislature passed it. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed it. He proclaimed "California took on Big Oil and won."
Its author, then-Sen. Nancy Skinner called it a "landmark law" that "will allow us to hold oil companies accountable if they pad their profits at the expense of hard-working families."
But the law — which gave regulators the power to cap refinery profits and penalize oil companies for price gouging — has never been used. Instead, last year, the California Energy Commission voted to delay the rules for five years. Skinner – who wrote the law as a Senator – was absent when her own commission voted to delay it.
Now, with gas topping $5.30 a gallon statewide, that decision is under a new spotlight. The Iran war has sent global oil prices soaring — but the war is only part of the story. California has a structural problem: fewer refineries, a captive market and no easy outside supply options. When prices rise nationally, they can rise even more here.
Proponents say this is precisely the moment the 2023 law was designed for. The commissioners last year left the door open to rescind the delay — and move forward with the rule before the five years — if they change their minds.
"These are the moments we need them, because when the price of a commodity goes through the roof — be it crude oil or refined gasoline — that's when companies make outrageous profits," said Jamie Court, president of Consumer Watchdog.
But those who backed the delay argue it was a necessary concession — that penalizing refiners risked driving them out of the state entirely. It's a tension that cuts to the heart of California's energy predicament: how to protect consumers today from an industry the state can't yet afford to lose, while still making good on its promise to leave that industry behind.
California’s unused gas-price tools
When the California Energy Commission met last August Newsom was already retreating from his confrontation with the oil industry. The question before commissioners was whether to move ahead with aggressive rules targeting refinery profits — or step back, as the governor was doing.
It was a sharp reversal. Newsom had declared special legislative sessions in 2022 and 2024, pushing through sweeping new powers to curb gasoline price spikes — including requirements that refiners store more fuel and replace lost supply during maintenance, and the profit-cap rules now sitting dormant. A new energy commission oversight division created by the law found an unexplained gasoline premium of about 41 cents per gallon between 2015 and 2024, costing drivers an estimated $59 billion.
Gas prices are displayed on a sign at a filling station in Fresno on March 6, 2026.
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Larry Valenzuela
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CalMatters
)
“Those are critically important laws,” said Kassie Siegel, director of the Climate Law Institute at the Center for Biological Diversity. “What that information shows is that Californians are at the mercy of a very few refiners with immense power.”
California’s oil industry strongly opposed the measures, and some economists remain skeptical of them. UC Berkeley energy economist Severin Borenstein warned that capping refinery profits during shortages could backfire.
“The last thing we need is to start trying to regulate refinery margins,” he said. “As much as people don't like high gasoline prices, they really, really hate gas lines.”
By last August, refinery closures were looming and warnings of $8-a-gallon gasoline circulated in Sacramento. Newsom and Democratic leaders were negotiating with the oil industry to boost production in Kern County — talks that produced a law that has since driven an uptick in drilling permits.
After Valero said it would close its Benicia refinery, Newsom directed Siva Gunda, vice chair of the California Energy Commission, to “redouble the state’s efforts to work closely with refiners on short- and long-term planning” and ensure a “reliable supply of transportation fuels.” Gunda responded with a series of recommendations that aligned largely with industry’s desires — among them a pause in the state’s profit-cap rule.
Against that backdrop, energy commissioners voted on Aug. 29 to delay the rules for five years. Ahead of the vote, Gunda said the delay would help boost “investor confidence” in the state’s oil refiners, “thereby ensuring a reliable in-state refining capacity.”
Oil industry representatives say the decision made sense – the profit-cap measures, they argued, miss the real problem.
“The real problem is California is an energy island — we’re losing 17% of our refining capacity,” said Zachary Leary, a lobbyist for the Western States Petroleum Association.
But Court, of Consumer Watchdog, said the governor “panicked,” leaving the state without the “hammer” it now needs.
“When you have this type of level of gas run up, you're going to need those tools,” Court said.
The difficult middle of the energy transition
California has committed to phasing out fossil fuels by 2045 — but it still depends heavily on gasoline, and it is losing the refineries that produce it.
Phillips 66 last year shut its Los Angeles refinery, citing concerns about the sustainability of the California market. Valero is closing its Benicia refinery next month, pointing to a challenging regulatory environment.
“If you start losing refineries — as we are going to — and you don't have an alternative source of supply, we're going to start getting price spikes when there's any sort of disruption at one of our refineries,” Borenstein said. “Or just during high demand periods.”
The challenge of reducing fossil fuel use while maintaining adequate supply has created what Gunda — Newsom’s point person in negotiations with the oil industry — calls the “mid-transition.
“This is not going to be a smooth transition,” Gunda said last month in testimony to a state Senate committee. “Every time you lose a refinery, it’s going to be a double-digit percent of refined fuel lost in California. So that abrupt transition will mean an abrupt increase in imports.”
A global oil shock hits California
The recent jump in gasoline prices reflects a global oil shock tied to the war with Iran — not a policy change unique to California, experts said. But the surge highlights how exposed the state remains to global energy markets as it loses refining capacity and imports more crude and gasoline.
Since the conflict began, the international benchmark for crude oil has climbed more than $25 a barrel — a shift that typically translates to about 60 cents per gallon at the pump, in line with the increase in California retail prices, argues Borenstein, of UC Berkeley.
“All of the change we've seen in the last couple of weeks is in line with the change in crude oil prices, and therefore is not California specific,” he said.
Newsom has made a similar argument, blaming the spike on global oil markets and the war with Iran rather than California policies. But analysts note that the state's shrinking refinery base means global shocks land harder here than elsewhere.
A key concern is the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, the narrow waterway carried more than 20 million barrels of oil a day — roughly one-fifth of global supply. Traffic is now at a standstill, and crude prices topped $100 a barrel again — even after more than 30 countries announced releases from emergency reserves.
Ryan Cummings, chief of staff at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policymaking, said a prolonged closure could push crude prices above $130 or $140 per barrel — driving California prices closer to $7, with a worst-case scenario approaching $10 at some stations.
Most analysts consider that outcome unlikely but no longer unthinkable.
“Right now, this doesn't appear likely, but it is a worst-case scenario that is growing by the day,” Cummings said.
Competing ideas for what comes next
Siegel, of the Center for Biological Diversity, said California should move forward immediately to implement the profit-cap rules and require companies to hold larger fuel inventories.
“Our leaders shouldn't rest until the rules are in place to prevent price gouging on top of volatility, and should not rest until people get their money back,” she said.
Economists say California’s biggest challenge may be infrastructure. Valero plans to close its Benicia refinery, which produces about 10% of the state’s gasoline, next month. In an analysis posted last year, Stanford economist Neale Mahoney and Cummings said California could offset lost refinery production with gasoline imports – if permitting allows refineries like Benicia to convert to fuel import terminals. Newsom said in January his administration is working with the company to continue importing gasoline into Northern California after its refinery operations close.
“If I was in the Legislature right now, all of my energies and effort would be built on, one, making sure that Benicia gets turned into an import terminal — and two, making sure whoever owns or operates that is not an incumbent,” Cummings said.
Court, of Consumer Watchdog, pointed to a proposed Phillips 66 pipeline that could bring refined gasoline from Midwest refineries into the state – something California has never had, relying instead on in-state refining and marine imports. Dubbed the Western Gateway Pipeline, the project would build a new pipeline and reverse an existing one to move gasoline and diesel from central U.S. refineries to Arizona and California.
One state lawmaker has proposed expanding access to E85, a cheaper ethanol blend. Both ideas remain proposals without clear timelines.
Meanwhile, some oil companies and even some Democrats are warning California’s climate policies could raise production costs enough that refineries reconsider operating in California — adding another pressure point to an already strained supply picture.
The profit-cap rules that could penalize oil companies remain on hold until 2029. By then, California may have lost more refineries — and may still be grappling with the problem Newsom once promised to solve: gasoline price shocks in the country’s most unaffordable market.