L.A.'s cold war nuclear deterrents are still hidden in plain sight, a study found self-driving cars may be safest now, the EV federal tax credit may be going away.
Self-driving cars can save thousands of lives — even if they're not perfect, study says
We hear about traffic crashes every day. They kill about 40,000 people every year in the United States, 260 of them in the city of Los Angeles. Distracted driving, drunk or drugged driving, speeding or some other human error is almost always to blame.
That's why state and federal governments are embracing self-driving cars as a potential solution. Replacing human drivers with robots holds the potential to dramatically reduce deaths, but there’s a problem. Most people don’t trust them.
"We understand the reasons that people make mistakes, whereas it’s harder to understand why machines make mistakes and that can shape our ability to accept mistakes," said Nidhi Kalra, co-author of a new study published today by the public policy think tank, the RAND Corporation. It’s called “The Enemy of the Good: Estimating the Cost of Waiting for Nearly Perfect Autonomous Vehicles.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ybr41Sy7K3g&feature=youtu.be
According the study, allowing the widespread use of autonomous vehicles, or AVs, when they’re only 10 percent better than the average American driver could prevent thousands of road deaths over the next 15 years and maybe even hundreds of thousands of deaths over the next three decades compared with waiting for self-driving technology to be perfect.
"As a society, we have come to see automation in almost all walks of life and … it is quite logical to assume that a greater and greater fraction of the control and the driving of a car will be taken over by machines," said Dr. Venkat Sumantran, author of "Faster, Smarter, Greener: The Future of the Car and Urban Mobility." "It is impractical to wait or subject any technology to the test of being perfect to be usable."
Convincing the public of AVs' safety remains an issue, however. Three out of four Americans are afraid to ride in a car without a human driver, according to the American Automobile Assn.
But it’s coming. And probably a lot sooner than many people realize.
As early as March 2018, California will allow fully driverless cars on public roads. Not only for testing, but for individuals to lease, buy or hire a ride-hail service without a human behind the wheel, depending on what companies make available.
If that seems sudden, it’s been a long time coming. California started working on regulations for self-driving vehicles back in 2013. When the regulations took effect in September 2014, California had seven companies that were approved. The following year the state had 11 companies. Today, 43 companies are approved for testing in the state, according to Bernard Soriano, deputy director of the California Department of Motor Vehicles.
Currently, self-driving cars in California must have a safety driver present in the vehicle. Companies that are approved for testing in the state also need to report any crashes. To date, there have been 49 crashes involving self-driving cars, which probably sounds like a lot, but Soriano said, "By and large, those crashes have been very minor. A typical scenario is an AV approaching an intersection and the vehicle behind the AV colliding with the AV at very low speeds, somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 to 5 mph."
Most of the California AV crashes have taken place in the bay area, where the bulk of the state’s AV testing is happening.
There is no AV testing in Los Angeles currently, says Marcel Porras, chief sustainability officer for the LA Department of transportation.
In February the city conducted a test of a semi-automated microtransit bus on a closed course in downtown LA, and they’re looking to do more testing.
"We are interested in continuing to learn and determine a path for deployment of AV here in the city of Los Angeles," Porras said.
And doing so safely.
"We’re trying to provide some hard numbers. We shouldn’t let perfect be the enemy of good when it comes to savings people’s lives," said Rand researcher Nidhi Kalra.
So how perfect are self-driving cars right now? According to Kalra, "They might be safer in some circumstances. A sunny day on a well marked highway with low traffic. But maybe in a complex situation with heavy rainfall, complex driving routes and detours, this might be more challenging. Really the jury’s still out on whether we’ve reached that threshold of being better than the average driver."
Electric cars may be harder to afford under GOP tax plan
Many potential buyers for electric vehicles rely on a $7,500 federal tax credit to help offset the higher cost associated with ditching a gas-powered car.
Late last week, as part of the massive GOP tax-reform bill, legislation was introduced that would terminate the federal tax credit. Instead of the EV credit phasing out gradually over the next few years, it would end December 31, 2017.
Regardless of whether the legislation is approved, it's already having a ripple effect on the EV market, as buyers scramble to make sure they can take advantage of the federal tax credit in case it goes away.
Reporter
covered the proposed legislation for Bloomberg. He spoke with Take Two's A Martinez about what cutting the tax credit would do to California's electric vehicle market, and how it might impact the state's environmental goals.
"Most analysts expect the overall sales rate for electric cars in the absence of this tax credit to be pretty significantly impacted," Beene said. "Right now, electric cars are much more expensive than their gasoline counterparts, and especially electric vehicles that are more affordable like the Chevrolet Bolt or the Nissan Leaf– they count on those tax credits to help the vehicle make financial sense."
If the legislation passes and it does indeed take a toll on the EV market, that could mean less alternative fuel vehicles on the road. And that could prove problematic for California's plan to lower the number of gas-powered cars on the road. "Transportation accounts for a huge portion of the state's greenhouse gas emissions," Beene said. "Electrification has been identified by Governor Jerry Brown and California Air Resources Board's Mary Nichols as a key part of that plan."
To hear the full interview, click on the media player above.
This old missile site might have saved LA during the Cold War
For nearly 50 years, a cold war between the US and the Soviet Union kept the superpowers on the brink of nuclear war. In the event of that war, Los Angeles with its factories, oil, dense population, and star power made it a prime target.
That's why the Army set up 16 missile defense sites around Southern California in the 1950s called the "Ring of Supersonic Steel." If Soviet bombers came close, five-ton Nike missiles would be loaded onto the launch pad and fired.
If that happened, it might have come from LA-55 in Rancho Palos Verdes — one of the best preserved of the 16. It was built in 1956 and remained in use until 1974.
The post hasn't been used for defense in more than 40 years. But a lot of the old base is still hidden in plain sight.
"It's not as good as it was when I was a little kid, but it's still got so much original fabric," says Francisco Lacy, a guide at the Fort MacArthur Museum in San Pedro.
Lacy came to learn the features of LA-55 in an unusual manner. As a boy, he enjoyed exploring the site.
Some of the old structures are still in use: the barracks are now used as city offices. But, just off the beaten path, it's a world frozen in time.
Missile Assembly Building
Missile Elevator
"These Nike missiles were stored in underground magazines, they were brought to the surface on elevators, and they would be able to push them on rails to their launch position," Lacy explains.
Sentry Dog Kennel
Magazine Entrance
Generator Room
In the 1950s, a surprise attack wasn't an uncommon fear. Many still remembered the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. During the Cold War, with the added threat of nuclear holocaust, the stakes seemed even higher.
It's been 60 years since the site was put in place. However, tensions and fear of this magnitude are slightly more difficult to imagine.
As intercontinental ballistic missiles replaced planes as the bomb delivery method of choice, sites like LA-55 fell out of favor.
Francisco Lacy, however, sees a romanticism in this otherwise dark chapter of American history.
"Being here at night, the tensions, the Cold War high, you got the guard dogs going around looking for Soviet spies — that's why I love the Cold War. The stakes were so high, and the weight of it all is fascinating," Lacy says.
"Never thought I'd see the day when we were like that again."
Press the blue play button above to take an audio tour of LA-55.
Psychology of domestic abusers and mass shooters may overlap
It isn't entirely clear what motivated the shooter in Sunday's attack on a Texas church. Authorities said that it might have been a domestic situation involving his wife's family who attended services there, and that the shooter had a history of being abusive.
He was court-martialed for assaulting his wife and stepson in 2012, while he was in the Air Force.
Amanda Taub of the New York Times wrote after the Pulse nightclub shooting about the possible parallels between those who commit domestic violence and acts of mass violence.
Listen to how the psychology of an abuser and a mass attacker may overlap. Click the audio player above.
Young DACA immigrants grapple with what's next as hope of federal fix dwindles
Tuesday Reviewsday: Snoh Aalegra, Snoop Dogg and Miguel
Every week, we get a tour of new music releases. This time, our guide is music writer Oliver Wang of soulsides.com. Here are his picks:
https://twitter.com/snohaalegra?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Album: Feels
Snoh Aalegra might sound familiar, but the Swedish-born, Persian R&B artist, who resides in LA, is becoming one of the most talked about new artists today.
She hosts a wide variety of collaborators on her new project, from MCs like Logic and Vince Staples, to behemoth beatmaker Boi-1da. And while they come from a hip hop background, she maintains that the best description for her sound is ‘Cinematic Soul.’ Here's a newly remixed version of her song, Fool for You, that she recently posted.
https://soundcloud.com/mynameswalt/fool-for-you
Snoop Dogg
Album: Make America Crip Again
Snoop’s latest project, all while juggling duties as ... a game show host?! “Good Foot” is classic West Coast, funk-influenced hip-hop.
Miguel
Album: Coco
L.A.’s Miguel goes G-rated with a new single for the upcoming Pixar film, Coco. It's a duet with acclaimed Spanish language singer, Natalia Lafourcade.