Today on AirTalk, we preview the Vice Presidential debate with a segment on debate prep, invite our OC journalists on to discuss the big stories from Orange County, sneak a peak at performance scores for California schools, weigh the criticisms of Egypt's new constitution, and debate the international legality of targeted drone attacks.
Debate strategy round two: Biden vs. Ryan
Vice presidential debates are traditionally surrogate affairs, with each candidate for VPOTUS trying first to do no harm to their political party’s campaign with a scant few weeks before Election Day. But the stakes are higher this year.
The public perception of last week’s first presidential debate saw challenger Mitt Romney win nearly hands down, putting more pressure than usual on tonight’s only debate between Vice President Joe Biden and Romney’s running mate, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan. But there is a lot on the line; thirteen vice presidents have gone on to be president, either by election or after the death or resignation of their boss – meaning that nearly a third of vice presidents wind up in the White House.
What To Expect From Tonight’s Debate
Mark Barabak, political correspondent of the Los Angeles Times, shares some of his insight into what viewers should expect to see tonight, and just how influential tonight’s debate will be in terms of changing public opinion.
“I don’t think if we look back two or three weeks from now we would say, ‘Wow that night in Danville, Kentucky really turned the race.’ That being said, it is important… but what the Obama folks are hoping will happen tonight is it will break the momentum…and obviously the Romney team hope to build on his performance,” Barabak says.
The last debate had more viewers than expected, about 67 to 68 million. And its anticipated that many will be interested to watch how the Vice Presidential candidates will do tonight, given the pressure that is carrying over from that last debate.
Samuel Popkin, professor of political science at UCSD, shares what Joe Biden will have to do in order to make up for Obama’s performance last week.
“The single most important thing for Joe to remember is that Paul Ryan is not the target and Paul Ryan’s budget is not the target; the target is Mitt Romney and Mitt Romney’s budget… if he goes directly at Ryan, Ryan can simply say that was my initial draft now the big guy is here and he has a better budget with new promises,” Popkin says.
Popkin also note’s how one of Biden’s strengths is his experience, which not only will give him an edge over Ryan but will help make up for the presentation factor that lost Obama so much ground in the last debate.
“Joe Biden has had four years of championing the president, he is very comfortable and used to that… this is a new role for Ryan he is going to have more trouble molding to that and being sure which line he should be following, I expect he will be okay but Biden will do with warmth and clear language what President Obama didn’t do at his debate speech. President Obama read much better than he looked,” says Popkin.
What Paul Ryan Must Do In The VP Debate
Popkin says, “He has to be honed in. The reason Romney put him on the ticket is because that was the best way to have Ryan interested in political power now, rather than purity now to take over the congressional leadership later, and he has to be willing to muddy his initial clear strong budget and not get stuck in the weeds of defending things that would make it harder for governor Romney. He has to basically sell out anything he stood for that is no longer valuable to Governor Romney.”
Given these factors, there are many things that VP candidates do to prepare for their 90 minutes of unfettered campaign face time. Four years ago, when Joe Biden was preparing for 2008’s vice presidential debate, former Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm sat in as Alaska’s lightning rod governor Sarah Palin for some friendly sparring sessions.
Granholm says that in these debates, one tries to become as much like the opponent as possible, and get under the skin of the candidate in order to best prepare his/her responses.
“I’m no Tina Fey but I did try to become sort of a Palin-toligist… I looked at everything I could about her…in debate practice you really try to get under the skin of the candidate in whatever way you can, or bring out your worst fear about way they will portray themselves in the actual debate, so we tried," says Granholm. We tried to exploit the difference between then Senator Biden and then Senator Obama. He had to absorb and respond to the attacks on Obama’s position, which he wasn’t as prepared to do, but that wont be an issue tonight, because of course there is no daylight between them now."
The hardest part of any debate, according to Granholm, is to find a balance between responding to attacks on you and making attacks. The candidate has to be disciplined in order to make smart decisions about how to allocate the time.
“Somebody very disciplined is Paul Ryan,” says Granholm. “ Biden has to know that the discipline on Ryan’s part will cause some attacks that will make Biden want to chase the rabbit down the hole, and he has to know when to do it and when not to do it.”
As someone who knows Biden’s debating skills very well, Granholm says that what she would worry about for him is being able to deliver the message in the formal style of a debate. She remarks how he is very good at connecting with people, but that his challenge will be to maintain authenticity in the two-minute response of the debate format.
Looking Forward To The Next Presidential Debate
Granholm also projects what she expects President Obama is practicing for next week’s debate.
“He must not allow a misstatement to go unanswered. Leaving it unanswered means the 70-million people who watch will take it as true, so he has to respond… In the last debate I predicted Obama would lose because of all the presidential debates in the last six cycles that incumbent president has lost five out of six times in the first debate…this time in the second debate I predict he is going to win, because he is a competitive soul and he is not going to let that first debate define him,” she observes.
Weigh In
So will Joe Biden be able to make up for what Obama’s presentation lacked? Or will Paul Ryan carry the Romney momentum forward and continue raising his numbers in the polls?
Guest:
Mark Barabak, Political Correspondent, Los Angeles Times
Samuel Popkin, professor of political science, UCSD; author of The Candidate: What it Takes To Win - and Hold - The White House (2012 Oxford)
Jennifer Granholm, former governor of Michigan (January 2003 - January 2011); tv host “The War Room with Jennifer Granholm” on Current TV weeknights at 7pm PT
OC journalists’ roundtable
Larry and our talented trio of Orange County journalists riff on the latest news from the O.C. A law barring registered sex offenders from public beaches is challenged…Tustin’s Pop Warner football coaches allegedly offered cash bounties to 10 and 11-year-old players to knock out members of opposing teams…Costa Mesa’s mayor calls for investigations of local soup kitchens, calling them “nuisances”…and questions are raised over the legitimacy of the Kelly Thomas Memorial Foundation.
Guests:
Gustavo Arellano, Editor of the OC Weekly and author of "Taco USA" and “Ask A Mexican”
Teri Sforza, Staff Writer for the Orange County Register
Norberto Santana, Editor-in-Chief of the Voice of OC, a non-profit investigative news agency that covers Orange County government and politics
API school scores released today
This morning, the California Department of Education released the Academic Performance Index (API) scores of its schools. The API is comprised of several different measures, including the results of standardized tests in literacy, math and science. For the first time ever, a majority of California schools reached the desired 800-point API mark set by the Department of Education.
That hasn’t come easy to a lot of schools. Private consultants have been hired, students have been given test after test to prepare, and the instructors go through very specific training sessions to get themselves up to speed. But even though over half the schools in the state are exceeding above expectations, many are still critical of the entire API system, especially its reliance on standardized tests.
How is your school doing? What do you think of standardized tests? Are they the right way to measure student progress?
Guests:
Adolfo Guzman-Lopez, KPCC education reporter
Vanessa Romo, KPCC education reporter
Egypt’s proposed constitution criticized for favoring Islam
Egypt’s new government may not ultimately embrace the democratic ideals demanded by citizens who overthrew former president Hosni Mubarak last year. The country’s 100-member assembly revealed a partial draft of a new constitution to the public yesterday and it indicates that religious and civil rights will likely be shaped by Islamist values.
One section reportedly leaked yet missing from the preliminary charter is one that would give Al-Azhar, the country’s highest Islamic authority, unprecedented powers to review pending laws. Another section that would define the nature of Egypt’s new system of checks and balances is also not included in the released draft, which has yet to be officially voted on. Committee members are hoping to put the new constitution to a national referendum by the end of the year.
Are Egyptians simply replacing one oppressive regime with another? How would a new Islam-centric Egypt impact the international community?
Guest:
Ahmed Namatalla, emerging markets reporter, Bloomberg News Cairo
Are targeted drone attacks in Pakistan and Yemen legal under international law?
Mary Ellen O’Connell is a fierce critic of America’s drone program, which she says is illegal outside war zones. Among legal scholars, O’Connell is in the minority, but her views are gaining momentum.
Researchers at New York University and Stanford University issued a report last month that claimed many U.S. drone strikes appear to be unlawful because they don’t meet the strict legal standard for killing outside of a war zone, which must be to stop an imminent threat to life when no other means is available.
While some drone strikes may be categorized as war crimes, O’Connell and her supporters agree that the war in Afghanistan is lawful because terrorists who attacked America on September 11, 2001 found refuge there. However, O’Connell maintains drone killings in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia violate laws of war intended to protect non-combatants.
Who should be responsible for monitoring and sanctioning international drone strike activity? Where should the U.S. draw the line when it comes to killing outside of a war zone?
Guest:
Mary Ellen O'Connell, Professor of International Law and International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
David Glazier, Professor of Law, Loyola Law School, Los Angeles