Make It Make Sense: The billionaire tax fails, plus other election results

Good morning! We told you we’d return with another installment when we had major news to share, and well, here we are. Today, we bring you the latest on the billionaire tax, a House of Representatives Republican matchup and other races we’re watching closely. Let’s dig in.

With Nithya Raman moving in as L.A. mayor, why are supporters of public transit celebrating her win over incumbent Karen Bass?

Raman has said she used trains and buses to commute to work in the past, even riding the Metro B line with supporters ahead of the election. Her campaign highlighted a policy platform that categorizes broken sidewalks, potholes and darkened streetlights as urgent crises that can be addressed. She has also said the region can be home to a fast, safe and connected transit system.

“That vision is totally achievable, if you have the will,” Raman said. “I have the will.”

Raman has pledged to start tackling urgent road repairs and potholes in her first 100 days in office, adding that she’ll make information public on when broken streetlights in the city will be fixed. Some supporters have described her win as a “cultural shift” and a “mainstream moment for safe streets advocacy.”

🥑 California Prop. 40: Voters reject the nation’s first-ever billionaire tax

What happened: The billionaires clutching their dollars can breathe a sigh of relief — Prop 40 has failed at the ballot, according to the Associated Press.
Background: Prop 40 would’ve applied a one-time 5% tax on billionaires’ assets if they were residents of California as of Jan. 1. The revenue was intended to backfill President Donald Trump’s funding cuts under H.R. 1 — some of which have already taken effect. It would’ve been largely earmarked for healthcare, where tens of billions of dollars a year in federal funding is expected to be slashed from California’s Medi-Cal program.
Why it failed: Prop 40 was heavily opposed by the ultra-wealthy, who funded millions in attack ads, and by several prominent Democrats, including Gov. Gavin Newsom. Critics also said it was poorly worded and a short-term fix to a long-term problem.
What about the two props designed to kill the billionaire tax? Prop 41, which would have required new special statewide taxes to undergo additional review by the state auditor, already failed. Prop 42, which bans future wealth taxes, has not yet been called, although “yes” has been consistently leading the vote.

🏠 Republican vs. Republican: Ken Calvert wins House District 40

What happened: The race between two Republicans — who were pitted against each other because of California’s temporary redistricting measure from 2025 — is over. Voters chose Rep. Ken Calvert, a 30-year incumbent from Corona representing the 41st Congressional District, over Rep. Young Kim, a five-year incumbent from Anaheim Hills who leads the 40th District.
What the candidates said:
- Ken Calvert: He claimed victory before the Associated Press called the race. Last Thursday, he posted on his website, “Election officials are still counting ballots, but the outcome of this race is clear. We won, and I could not be more grateful. … Now it’s time to get back to work on making life more affordable, keeping our communities safe and standing up to the madness of the new socialist majorities in Congress who are determined to raise taxes, open our borders and impose failed California policies on the nation.”
- Young Kim: She posted on social media late Monday, saying, “I want to congratulate Congressman Ken Calvert on his victory. I wish him the very best as he continues representing our communities. … It is unfortunate that Gavin Newsom’s political redistricting scheme forced two Republican members of Congress into this race.”
Background: Their boundaries were redrawn under Prop 50, California’s landmark redistricting measure to counteract gerrymandering in Texas. Some of Calvert’s current district is being absorbed into other areas, while his new district will essentially combine the parts of both members' districts, covering parts of Orange County and the Inland Empire.
In-party conflict: Calvert’s win comes as the two spent the campaign season fighting over who the better Republican was, trading bitter attacks. Kim repeatedly called him corrupt, pointing to an FBI investigation in which he has not been charged with a crime. Recently, Calvert put out an attack ad claiming she’s aligned with the Chinese Communist Party because of certain donations — which Kim has denied. A coalition of Asian American elected officials condemned Calvert for the “racist smears.” Kim was one of the first Korean American women elected to Congress.
What’s next: Calvert will be sworn in in January. He’s currently a senior member of the House Appropriations Committee, but assignments will likely change under the new Democratic-led Congress.

What else was called

🥑 Prop 38: The proposition to let the state borrow $8.4 billion in bonds for immunology research has passed. Supporters championed it as a way to support scientific research amid uncertainty over federal funding. Opponents questioned why, under the measure, only one research institute appeared to qualify for half the funds. That institute’s co-founder, billionaire Gary K. Michelson, donated more than $63 million in support of Prop 38.
🍊 Santa Ana mayor: The race to lead one of Orange County’s largest cities is over. Santa Ana’s current mayor, Valerie Amezcua, has conceded the race to progressive Dan Shimell. We’ll get more into what this means for the city in our next issue.

👀 We’re still watching 👀

L.A. City Council District 9: Only 286 votes stand between Jose Ugarte and Estuardo Mazariegos, and the final outcome may rest on how many ballots from this district are left to count (which, unfortunately, we have no way of knowing).

😰 Is it over yet? 😰

These results are based on about 11.5 million votes counted so far statewide — more than 3.1 million in L.A. County and more than 1 million in Orange County.

L.A. County estimates just 44,000 ballots left to count, and Orange County estimates about 116,000. Statewide, there are about 2.3 million ballots left to count. A lot of those votes are provisional, conditional registration ballots or ones that need to be cured, which take longer to verify. That means we’ll continue to see the count slow down.

The next local ballot counts drop this afternoon, starting around 4 p.m., but we’ll only be back in your inboxes when there’s major news to share, or we have deeper analysis.

— Cato and Makenna

📰 Catch up quick

Get caught up on our past issues here:

Nov. 9: An L.A. City Council shakeup, plus lots of failed props
Nov. 7: A progressive becomes CA’s insurance head
Nov. 6: The L.A. city attorney race comes to a close
Nov. 5: Nithya Raman wins the L.A. mayor’s race
Nov. 5: All 8 L.A. city measures could pass
Nov. 4: We’ve got a new governor, plus voter ID fails

Otherwise, you can keep up with the results here: