Becerra easily leading California governor’s race defined by partisan split, poll shows

Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra is leading Republican businessman Steve Hilton by a double-digit margin in the race for California governor, according to a new poll from UC Berkeley.

The Institute of Governmental Studies poll found about 55% of likely voters saying they’ll support Becerra, 37% backing Hilton and just 7% undecided.

Becerra’s 18-point lead marks a stark contrast to June’s messy and crowded primary contest, which included numerous serious Democratic candidates and remained unsettled until the very end.

Steve Hilton, Republican gubernatorial candidate for California, speaks during a gubernatorial debate at KRON Studios in San Francisco on April 22, 2026.

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Jason Henry

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“It’s shaping up to be a pretty traditional Democrat versus Republican general election matchup with strong partisan preferences kind of dominating everything,” poll director Mark DiCamillo said.

California’s electorate is largely Democratic — Republicans are outnumbered by Democrats nearly 2 to 1, and independent voters make up more than one-fifth of the electorate.

Partisan leanings appear to be driving voter opinions in the governor’s race, DiCamillo said: 88% of Democrats are backing Becerra, while 91% of Republicans are behind Hilton.

The poll’s findings overall track with trends in recent statewide races, including the 2024 presidential contest, which former Vice President Kamala Harris won by 20 points over President Donald Trump in California.

“When you ask voters, ‘Why are you supporting Becerra?’ they want a Democrat who takes the positions that Democrats traditionally take — that’s what they’re voting for. Plus they want somebody who’s going to fight Trump,” DiCamillo said.

Those partisan, anti-Trump views appear to outweigh Becerra’s history-making potential: If he wins, he would be the first Latino elected governor of California.

Yet just 1% of poll respondents said his identity as the son of Mexican immigrants is the reason they’re supporting him, the poll shows.

It will be difficult for Hilton to close the gap with Becerra, DiCamillo said, because the survey shows that he’s also struggling among voters not affiliated with one of the two major political parties.

The poll shows Hilton’s favorability rating underwater among independents, with 31% viewing him favorably and 59% unfavorably.

The last two standing: Gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra, center, shakes hands with then-fellow candidate Chad Bianco at a gubernatorial debate at KRON Studios in San Francisco on April 22, 2026. Now, it's just Becerra and Steve Hilton, at right.

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Jason Henry

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Nexstar / Bloomberg

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“In order for Hilton to win, he really has to go after the Democratic constituencies,” DiCamillo said. “If you look at, for example, no party preference voters, sometimes you try to peel those off if you’re a challenger on the Republican side.”

But with a strong majority of independents viewing the Republican businessman negatively, “it’s a tall order,” he said.

“Hilton represents the Republicans. He’s the standard bearer. And the reason people are voting for him is because that’s what they’re voting for,” DiCamillo said. “Unfortunately for Republicans and for Hilton, there’s not enough of them.”

The survey was conducted online in English and Spanish from Aug. 3 to Aug. 9 among 4,207 registered voters; a sample of 2,310 were considered likely voters in the November general election.