In LA, Asian Americans Can Sway Elections But Can’t Decide Them

Asian Americans are the third-largest racial group in Los Angeles, but a new report shows their numbers don’t necessarily translate to political clout.

No district has an Asian American majority or plurality, so their votes alone can’t clinch wins for their candidates of choice, according to the report.

“Only when Asian Americans vote in coalition with other racial groups will Asian Americans’ preferred candidate win the election,” said Natalie Masuoka, chair of UCLA’s Asian American Studies Department and the report’s co-author.

A case example is the election of Karen Bass, who was the preferred mayoral candidate for voters of color, including more than half of Asian Americans who voted in the election, according to the report.

Estimated vote share by racial group in the 2022 L.A. mayoral election. Karen Bass won with a coalition of voters of color.

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Courtesy of the UCLA Asian American Studies Center

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Impact of redistricting

The report, funded by the UCLA Asian American Studies Center and the East West Bank Foundation, provides the first detailed look at the role Asian Americans have played in recent city elections, and examines where there is "untapped electoral potential."

There are large concentrations of Asian American voters in places such as Koreatown, Chinatown and Thai Town, as well as on the West Side. Council District 5, which includes Westwood, Palms and Beverly Hills and is represented by Katy Young Yaroslavsky, has the largest Asian American population in a district: 21%.

The news conference at the Japanese American National Museum unveiling the report. From left to right: Karen Umemoto, Bill Fujioka, Nathan Chan, Travis Kiyota and Ian Kamus.

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But the report indicates that the geographic dispersion of Asian Americans across the vast city poses an electoral challenge, as does a redistricting process that has not made Asian American voters a priority.

“This raises questions related to how districts have been drawn for Los Angeles city elections and to what extent Asian Americans are fairly offered the opportunity to elect the candidate in the context of redistricting,” Masuoka said.

Another electoral barrier: many eligible Asian Americans are not registered to vote. The voter registration rate for Asian Americans averages under 50% across most of L.A.

A map of the racial makeup of the registered voter population in Los Angeles.

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Courtesy of UCLA

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Also, the pipeline for Asian American candidates has been historically weak. The report found that between 2011 and 2022, 60% of candidates running for executive office and 40% of candidates running for city council identify as white. By comparison, 12% of candidates for executive office were Asian American, as we were 7% of city council candidates.

But the report also pointed out major gains for Asian American representation in recent years. Since 2020, two Asian Americans — John Lee and Nithya Raman — have sat on the city council. And City Controller Kenneth Mejia became the first Asian American elected to citywide office last year.

It also spotlighted the sway Asian American voters had in Council District 1 in the last election.

Asian American influence in CD 1

While CD 1 does not have the largest Asian American population, it leads other districts when it comes to eligible Asian American voters. That population is 21%, spread across neighborhoods such as Chinatown and Lincoln Heights.

Eunisses Hernandez won the primary election, and was the preferred candidate among Asian American voters, drawing 57% of their vote, compared with 38% for then-incumbent Gil Cedillo, according to the report.

The authors, using a methodology employed in voting rights legal cases, found Hernandez was also the candidate of choice among white voters, winning 98% of their vote, while Cedillo sewed up the Black and Latino vote.

Estimated vote share by racial group in the 2022 City Council District 1 primary election.

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Courtesy of the UCLA Asian American Studies Center

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“When Asian Americans constitute a somewhat large enough voting population in a district, their vote indeed can influence the outcome of the election,” said report co-author Nathan Chan, who is an assistant professor specializing in Asian American politics at Loyola Marymount University.

In Council District 13, Asian American voters also had a most preferred candidate: Mitch O'Farrell who was fighting to hold onto his seat. Asian Americans are a sizable 18% of the eligible voting population in CD 13. But the authors found that there still weren't enough Asian American supporters to tip the balance in O'Farrell's favor, and he lost to Hugo Soto-Martinez who was the candidate of choice for white and Latino voters.

Estimated vote share by racial group in the 2022 race for City Council District 13.

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Courtesy of the UCLA Asian American Studies Center

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The report served as a call to action for Asian American community leaders like Bill Fujioka, a former L.A. County chief executive officer who chairs the board of trustees at the Japanese American National Museum in Little Tokyo.

“We need to have voices,” Fujioka said during the report’s unveiling at JANM Tuesday. ”Until that happens, we're going to be ignored, and being ignored has consequences.”

Fujioka said without having a say in who is elected, Asian American communities lose out on needed funds for services and programming from city and county government.

Ian Kamus, the community services co-director at the Pilipino Workers Center, leads an effort to register immigrants and youth. Kamus said one way to "operationalize" the report's findings was by supporting grassroots campaigns like the Asian American Voter Empowerment Project.

"There were almost 5,000 unregistered Asian American voters in Eagle Rock alone," Kamus said. "As we speak, our canvassers, our team, are knocking on doors right now, and registering people to vote."

Read the report here: