A hurricane is not headed for Southern California. But it will send dangerous surf our way

Despite speculation earlier this week, a hurricane is not going to hit Southern California this weekend.

Tropical Storm Marie is churning in the Pacific Ocean several hundred miles off the coast of Mexico. It’s expected to reach hurricane strength by Thursday morning.

The storm is moving northwest, which is typical for most storms in the eastern Pacific. Forecasters say the chance is extremely minimal that it will veer north.

“The current forecast track is for Marie to continue to move off to the west and northwest, further and further away,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Rich Thompson.

A diagram shows the likely path of Tropical Storm and Hurricane Marie through Monday morning.

(

NOAA

)

But that doesn’t mean we’ll dodge its effects completely.

Hurricanes can affect weather patterns from afar, and Marie is likely to significantly impact Southern California’s weather and beaches over Labor Day weekend.

Beware dangerous beach conditions

Recent storm surges already have damaged Aliso Beach in Laguna Beach. A storm off the coast now has meteorologists warning of rough beach conditions and high moisture heading into the Labor Day weekend.

(

Allen J. Schaben

/

Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

)

The strongest effects from the storm will be felt along the coast.

 ”Those beach coastal impacts are gonna be the big thing to watch for this weekend,” Thompson said. “You're going to have a large and southeast southerly swell moving into the coastal waters from the hurricane.”

Forecasters are warning that the swell will come with dangerously strong rip currents and big waves, especially along south-facing beaches. It could also bring the potential for coastal flooding.

The swell's peak will probably hit Sunday and Monday.

Surf along the Southern California coast has already been high this summer. Last weekend, the conditions, combined with large beach crowds, led to more than 1,200 ocean rescues by L.A. County lifeguards. With temperatures soaring, more than 1 million people went to L.A. County beaches last weekend.

And with the holiday this weekend, large crowds are likely to return to the beaches, potentially putting more people in the path of even more dangerous ocean conditions.

If you do plan to go to the beach, the safest option is to stay near occupied lifeguard posts and heed lifeguard warnings. Also, stay off of jetties and coastal rocks.

If you’re caught in a rip current, swim parallel to the shoreline. Once you stop feeling the current’s pull, swim at an angle away from the current and toward the shore. If needed, tread water and wave for help.

National Weather Service safety tips on how to move out of a rip current safely.

(

Courtesy National Weather Service

)

The ocean conditions this weekend are also coming after high surf and tides have already caused significant coastal erosion ahead of this winter’s El Niño.

Moisture incoming

Marie will also bring a surge of moisture to Southern California, which means beaches will likely be socked in by tropical cloud cover.

It also means there will be a chance of rain across the region.

But at most, the rain will be light, with about a 50% chance of half an inch or less. Forecasters do not expect precipitation to be heavy enough to cause mudslides or hydrate vegetation in any significant way.

However, there is still some uncertainty among forecasters when it comes to the amount of rain and strength of the storm — they could vary if the storm’s path shifts even slightly.

“ That's what we're watching very closely in the next several days,” Thompson said. “If the forecast does seem to change over the next couple of days, it's because the track of the storm would have changed.”

If the storm veers slightly closer to North America, Thompson said the amount of rain and severity of ocean conditions would increase. If it veers the other direction, they would decrease.