Topline:
Xavier Becerra is California’s next governor after easily securing a victory that ensures Democrats continue their 16-year streak controlling the state.
About the call: The Associated Press declared Becerra the winner moments after polls closed.
He makes history: Becerra will be the first Latino to serve as governor in a century and a half, and the first to be elected to the seat.
Xavier Becerra is California’s next governor after easily securing a victory that ensures Democrats continue their 16-year streak controlling the state.
The Associated Press declared Becerra the winner shortly after polls closed.
He will be the first Latino to serve as governor in a century and a half, and the first to be elected to the seat.
Becerra’s win caps a whirlwind and unexpected rise for a mild-mannered, risk-averse politician who just eight months ago polled so low he was being pressured to drop out of the race.
But when the leading Democratic contender in a crowded primary dropped out in April over sexual assault allegations, Becerra was the mainstream Democrat whom party insiders and interest groups coalesced behind the most. By the time he and Hilton finished first and second in the primary election in June, he was already being considered the presumptive next governor of California.
In a comfortable position in the polls and facing a GOP opponent whom he could easily tie to President Donald Trump, Becerra avoided sweeping policy promises and instead focused on his longtime experience in government.
With Becerra’s election, it’s unlikely the state will significantly depart from the policies of outgoing Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, including in its longstanding disputes with the Trump administration. Becerra has said he supports changes Newsom and the Democratic-led Legislature have enacted to speed up housing construction, and he generally supports the state’s transition to clean energy — but also wants to find ways to lower gas prices.
He is, however, likely to differ in style compared to his predecessor. Newsom’s signature was ambition; he swept into office eight years ago with a litany of goals such as millions of new housing units and progressive moonshots like single-payer healthcare, not all of which he achieved. Becerra has avoided such promises, instead speaking generally about prioritizing working families, and says he doesn’t want to lose any public trust by overstating what he could accomplish.
Hilton, meanwhile, rolled out a litany of deregulatory policies and called for tax cuts, abolishing the Department of Motor Vehicles, canceling the high-speed rail project and ending the state’s climate goals in an aggressive campaign of lowering the cost of living. But he faced long odds running as a Republican in a blue state, during an election in which Democrats were expected to sweep offices nationwide.
He represented the best hope in years for a GOP victory. He has raised more than $33 million to Becerra’s $38 million and is running hard on a series of ambitious promises to lower costs by slashing regulations and taxes. He portrayed Becerra as the embodiment of the California political status quo, someone who would make decisions that benefit influential special interest groups like organized labor.
“It’s the people against the machine,” he said of his campaign in a virtual town hall last week.
His message of change, promises to slash gas prices and frequent invocations of Californians moving out-of-state resonated with Brad Gerig, who voted in Roseville last week. It was the first time Gerig, 34, could recall voting for a Republican, he said. The EMT and firefighter said he wants to be able to afford to stay and raise a family in California, so he was willing to “try something different.”
“I think it’s worth a shot,” Gerig said. “I think for everybody living in this area there’s an inherent angst for a little bit better. There’s no reason it should be as expensive as it is.”
But Hilton has struggled to rid himself of the baggage from President Donald Trump’s endorsement in a state Trump lost by 20 percentage points in 2024.
Becerra has reminded voters of Hilton’s link to Trump at every turn, and cast himself as a fighter who would, like Newsom, challenge decisions in Washington such as Trump’s aggressive deportation campaign.
He has dismissed Hilton as unserious and primarily campaigned on his longtime experience representing Los Angeles in Congress and serving as state attorney general and as U.S. health secretary. Those roles have earned him a wide swath of influential liberal allies.
“Xavier Becerra has stood with us for more than 30 years,” said Tony Hoang, executive director of the LGBTQ+ rights organization Equality California, at an event in San Francisco last week.
He highlighted Becerra’s role as one of the small minority of congressmembers who voted against the anti-gay marriage Defense of Marriage Act in 1996.
At the same event, Becerra touted his opposition to Trump.
“Donald Trump is on this ballot,” he said, without naming his opponent once. “We see right through you, Donald Trump. And we see through all those MAGA friends and relatives who are trying to push that agenda on us.”
Becerra’s comfortable standing is reflected in the relatively muted nature of his campaign: Becerra agreed to meet for only one debate with Hilton this fall. He has spent much of his time campaigning not for himself but against a Republican-backed voter ID measure and on behalf of other California Democrats.
The election comes at a particularly delicate time for California.
Street homelessness rose for years and only began to decline again in 2025. Wildfires have made it harder to buy homeowners insurance. Inflation, much of it attributable to Trump’s war in Iran, tariffs and immigration crackdown, have added to the already-high cost of living.
The state budget, always subject to the boom and bust of the stock market, has become particularly dependent on the fortunes of the artificial intelligence industry. Under Newsom, the state has made aggressive regulatory moves to curb the use of climate-warming fossil fuels. But despite recent polling that shows a majority of Californians support the green transition, fewer are willing to pay higher prices for energy than were a decade ago.
And the state’s liberal politics have often put it in the crosshairs of the Trump administration, which has withheld federal funds, challenged California’s environmental policies and attempted to intervene in this election.
Both candidates agree the state has become unaffordable for working families. That’s about all they agree on.
Becerra has proposed mostly incremental changes to existing state policies, such as continuing recent efforts by Newsom and lawmakers to reduce the bureaucratic hurdles to approving new housing construction.
He wants to expand state mortgage assistance programs and said he’s committed to the clean energy transition, but open to delays or tweaks to trim costs. He has not endorsed any new taxes on residents, but wants the state to assess a fee on corporations whose employees make so little they qualify for public healthcare.
Hilton, a British American who was once a close adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron, ran on a deregulatory agenda, promising to slash environmental rules and the gas tax and allow more home construction on exurban, undeveloped land.
One of his signature campaign promises was to eliminate the income tax on residents’ first $150,000 in earnings and make the income tax flat above that — amounting to an expensive tax cut for the highest earners that he’s said he would pay for with spending cuts. It’s one of his many promises that would need legislative approval, and he has not said how he would get Democrats in the Capitol to support them.
This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.
Topline:
The election rematch between Robert Luna and Alex Villanueva comes to a close, with voting ending at 8 p.m. on Election Day. Now L.A. County awaits the vote tally between Luna, the incumbent sheriff who defeated his challenger in 2022, and Villanueva, who is making a bid to return to the Sheriff's Department's top job.
The campaign: The candidates painted starkly different pictures of the department — the largest sheriff’s agency in the country — during the campaign. Villanueva claimed the department has fallen apart on Luna’s watch. Luna argued his leadership has brought down violent crime and cut homicides by 25% in areas patrolled by his deputies. No matter the winner, the department faces a slew of challenges.
Read on ... for the latest results.
L.A. County Sheriff Robert Luna took an early lead in the race to head the department he’s run for the last four years.
Returns in the sheriff’s race heavily favored Luna over challenger and predecessor Alex Villanueva after polls closed. A win for Luna was largely expected going into the election after he handily beat Villanueva in 2022.
The candidates painted starkly different pictures of the department — the largest sheriff’s agency in the country — during the campaign.
Villanueva claimed the department has fallen apart on Luna’s watch. Luna argued his leadership has brought down violent crime and cut homicides by 25% in areas patrolled by his deputies.
No matter the winner, the department faces a slew of challenges.
Luna has been criticized for his management of county jails. The U.S. Department of Justice recently launched an investigation into conditions at the Men’s Central Jail and, last year, California’s attorney general filed a lawsuit alleging inhumane and unconstitutional conditions inside county jails.
The Sheriff’s Department also is dealing with ongoing staffing challenges, allegations of excessive use of force, deputy gangs and ongoing friction with the Sheriff Civilian Oversight Commission.
The next sheriff will also have to help oversee security for the 2028 Olympic Games in and around Los Angeles.
This year’s race was a rematch of the 2022 election, in which Luna unseated then-incumbent Villanueva with a 23-percentage-point margin.
Villanueva’s term was marked by clashes with county supervisors and criticism over investigations he launched into critics, including an L.A. Times journalist who covered the department.
After he left office, Villanueva was placed on a "do not rehire" list after the County Equity Oversight Panel found that he violated discrimination and harassment policies during his term. Villanueva denied the allegation.
Topline:
California State University staff began voting Tuesday to ratify a deal their union reached with the university system over the weekend. If the 15,000 members of the California State University Employees Union vote to ratify the agreement, the Board of Trustees will formally approve it at its next meeting.
Why it matters: Union members — which include non-faculty staff from administrators to janitors — could start receiving a bonus check of around $3,500 by December if the deal passes, according to Catherine Hutchinson, CSU Employees Union president, as well as pay raises.
Who's unhappy: Bethany Price, president of the union chapter at Cal State Long Beach, will be voting against ratifying the agreement because it doesn't fully address the issue of temporary contracts, which she feels are being abused.
What's next: If ratified, the agreement will be in effect till 2029.
California State University staff began voting Tuesday to ratify a deal their union reached with the university system over the weekend. If the around 15,000 members of the California State University Employees Union authorize the agreement, the Board of Trustees will formally approve it at their next meeting.
Union members — who include non-faculty staff from administrators to janitors — could start receiving a bonus check of around $3,500 by December, as well as pay raises, according to Catherine Hutchinson, CSU Employees Union president.
The agreement allows for implementation of the salary step scale, an incremental pay scale based on the job grade and years of service.
“The amount of money that we're receiving this year and the correction of our step placements and eligible employees getting put properly on steps, it was worth it to sign a TA [tentative agreement] now,” she said.
In a statement, a CSU spokesperson said, “The CSU is pleased to have reached a tentative agreement with the California State University Employees Union. The agreement would complete implementation of the negotiated salary step system, with employees placed on their target salary steps retroactive to July 1, 2026, while providing meaningful compensation improvements.”
Bethany Price, president of the union chapter at Cal State Long Beach, said the new agreement will give her a financial boost.
“My salary would move me to the end range of the position that I'm in, and I've been in the same position for over 20 years and seen movement in my salary only in those times when the union negotiated salary increases,” she said.
Price will be voting against ratifying the agreement, however.
"For those of us who work on this campus at Cal State Long Beach, it does not address one of the biggest issues, which is the abuse of temporary contracts by our system,” Price said.
Many staff employed at Cal State Long Beach in positions such as administrative coordinators are in full-time roles but on temporary contracts, “which means that they can be curtailed at the discretion of management, and that they can be non-renewed for no cause or no purpose,” Price said.
Hutchinson said under the new contract, like the old, CSU is allowed to employ a person for four years on a temporary contract.
“We have some campuses, such as Cal State Long Beach, that abuse that, because what happens is if you have a break in service, the temp status restarts,” she said. “So what campuses will do, is they will have that person for 11 months, say 'Oh, we don't have enough money,' break the service, and then maybe a couple months later say, 'Oh, we got some funding again. We'll hire you back.'”
The new deal, Hutchinson said, contains a provision that CSU and the union will form a working group to address temporary employment.
Price said she is “spicy” about this new deal because three years ago the contract also called for a separate committee on temporary contracts, and, she said, nothing happened. “Instead what we've seen on this campus is an increase in the abuse.”
"When the bargaining team says that this is the best we can get at this point, then I have to trust them,” she said. “It doesn't mean that I have to take my vote and put it in the yes column for this tentative agreement that I don't believe serves this campus.”
If ratified, the new contract will run through 2029.
Topline:
Some of the key storylines to watch will center around various voters groups that have soured on President Trump during his second turn out.
With so many races underway, here's how to get better idea of how the night might go. Watch for:
Keep reading... for the key indicators to be watching for tonight.
It can be hard to know what to focus on in midterm elections. There are so many races, from elections for governor and senator to the House and state legislatures. For a better idea of how the night might go to see which party might control Congress, here are six things to watch:
There are two states, Indiana and Kentucky, that will see results in the 6 p.m. ET hour. And then there's Florida, which is split between the Eastern and Central time zones. But most of the state is on Eastern time. So lots of House race results will be coming in during the 7 p.m. ET hour, even if statewide contests like the Senate and governors races won't be called at the earliest until 8 p.m. ET.
Some races to watch for early indicators of what might come later in the evening — Indiana's 5th Congressional District, Kentucky's 6th and Florida's 22nd and 27th. Indiana's 5th and Kentucky's 6th are seats held by Republicans that are more competitive now than at the beginning of the cycle. If these are close or tipping to Democrats, it could be a sign of low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave.
Florida's 22nd is held by a Democrat but redrawn to tip in Republicans' favor. Trump won Florida's 27th by double-digits so this heavily Latino district could be an indicator of how this key subgroup votes.
Independents are a key swing group, but they are also a lower-propensity voting group in midterms.
It used to be that Republicans had to win a bigger share of independents before the Trump era. Mitt Romney, for example, won 55% of independents in 2012 but lost the presidential election. But there's been a political realignment in this country with blue-collar white voters trending toward Trump, fewer people identifying as Democrats and better-educated white voters shifting toward Democrats.
So in the decade since Trump has been on the political scene, Republicans have done well when they win at least 46% of independents. When they haven't, they've lost.
The Michigan Senate race is important for control of the Senate. If Republicans flip it, the magic number for Democrats goes from four to five, meaning Democrats would have to win five seats held by Republicans to win control of the Senate.
For Abdul El-Sayed (D) to win in Michigan, a key is going to be Black voters in Wayne County. If he runs up the score in and around Detroit, he has a path to victory, but if he doesn't, it becomes that much harder — and it's been an area of vulnerability for him.
During the Trump era, Democrats have needed 68% or more in Wayne County to win Michigan unless, like Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024, they can overperform in the suburbs.
Wayne County Democratic margins
2024 Slotkin 63% Win (11% share)
2024 Harris 62% Loss
2020 Biden 68% Win (12%)
2020 Peters 68% Win
2018 Stabenow 69% Win (15%)
2016 Clinton 66% Loss (13%)
Voters 18 to 29 see a drastic drop off in turnout between presidential and midterm elections. During presidential races since 1992, 43% of registered young voters cast ballots. But in midterms, that falls to 21%, just 1 in 5 who show up at the polls.
But they are crucial to Democratic success. In the last 20 years, when Democrats won this group by more than 20 points, they have done well, winning presidencies or making gains in midterms. The only exception was 2022, but arguably, the strong margin Democrats won with young voters that year, helped them stem what could have been a much larger Republican tide. That year, Democrats lost nine House seats, but gained a Senate seat.
Democratic margin with voters 18-29, election result
2024 +11, Trump wins presidency
2022 +28, Republicans win House, Democrats gain Senate seat
2020 +25, Biden wins presidency
2018 +35, Democrats win House
2016 +19, Trump wins presidency
2014 +11, Republicans expand House majority, win Senate
2012 +23, Obama wins re-election
2010 +17, Republicans win House
2008 +34, Obama wins presidency
2006 +22, Democrats win House
Given past polling errors in Texas that underestimated the Republican vote, there's a healthy skepticism that Democrat James Talarico's margin of error lead in polling averages is enough to win.
There was lots of enthusiasm in 2018 for Beto O'Rourke's (D) 2018 bid against an unpopular Republican senator in Ted Cruz, but Cruz still won, although by less than 3 percentage points. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and no Democrat has been elected to the Senate from Texas in 38 years.
For it to actually happen in this state Trump won by 14 points in 2024, two groups are key – Republicans and Latinos. Ken Paxton (R) is unpopular. Republican Gov. Greg Abbot is also facing a tight race, but he's thought to be in better shape than Paxton. In 2018, Cruz won about 400,000 fewer votes than Abbott, but Cruz still won by more than 200,000 votes. So watch if the difference between Abbott and Paxton is more than 400,000 for Talarico.
The second part of Talarico's path to victory runs through South Texas. Statewide, O'Rourke won 64% of Latinos in 2018, and they were 26% of the electorate, according to exit polls. If Talarico is north of both of those, that's how he wins the seat. Talarico would need to improve on O'Rourke's totals in these Latino-heavy counties: Cameron 63%, Hidalgo 69%, Webb 71%, Nueces 51%. As a bonus, watch the fast-growing and heavily populated Dallas suburbs – Collin 47%, Denton 46%, Tarrant 51%.
Because of the political realignment that's taken place in the Trump era, watch how people identify in exit polls.
The percentage of those saying they were Democrats hit a low in 2024 at 31%. That trend is happening as the base of the Democratic Party has become more liberal and more disaffected with their own leadership. This year, though, Democrats were among the highest in enthusiasm levels, according to the latest NPR poll, but they are likely going to have to be far higher than 31% as a share of the electorate to do well.
Democrats as a share of the electorate
2024 31%
2022 33%
2020 37%
2018 37%
2016 37%
2014 35%
2012 38%
2010 39%
2008 39%
That's quite possible given the opposition to Trump in this election is sky high – 53% of likely voters in the latest NPR poll said they strongly disapproved of the job he's doing. That is very likely to be a unifying force for the left in this election. As the saying goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Along these lines, it's going to be important to watch races like the Michigan Senate race and the contest for Michigan's 7th Congressional District, both of which have very progressive Democratic candidates trying to win in purple places. Democratic unity – and the party's ideological future – is going to be a key storyline of the 2028 presidential primary and could define the American left for years to come.
Copyright 2026 NPR
Topline:
Vote counting will start Tuesday night but could go on for days or even weeks. As results are being tallied this election Tuesday, here is a guide to watch election night as polls close across the country (all times in Eastern Time and organized by latest poll close time).
Earliest results: Beginning at 4 p.m. PST, some results will begin to come in. Georgia and Florida are in this group where all eyes are on the senate and gubernatorial races in those states. In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is likely to defeat Republican Rep. Mike Collins in the race for Senate. The governor's race is tighter, one of the most competitive in the south between Republican nominee, billionaire businessman Rick Jackson and Democratic candidate, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms.
Later results: California, the Pacific Northwest, and Idaho are done casting ballots come 8 p.m. PST. After California voters opted to redraw the congressional boundaries in the state in 2025, the decision made the state less competitive for Republicans and the close races have mostly tilted toward Democrats in the final weeks. But in California's Central Valley, there is a true toss-up race. There are also tax-related propositions on California's ballot, including a billionaire tax. California is a slow counting state so races may not be called quickly.
Read on . . . for more results times and key races in those states.
Vote counting will start Tuesday night but could go on for days or even weeks.
While control of the House could become clear sooner because of bigger margins, control of the Senate could take much longer — the margins are tighter, seven states are especially competitive and two states use ranked choice voting which can prolong count time. Control of the House likely won't come down to one seat, but control of the Senate very well could.
As results are being tallied, here is a guide to watch election night as polls close across the country (all times in Eastern Time and organized by latest poll close time).
To jump to a specific poll closing time, use the links below:
7 p.m. ET | 7:30 p.m. ET | 8 p.m. ET | 8:30 p.m. ET | 9 p.m. ET | 10 p.m. ET | 11 p.m. ET | 12 a.m. ET | 1 a.m. ET
To get things started, all eyes are on the senate and gubernatorial races in Georgia and Florida.
Georgia: Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is likely to defeat Republican Rep. Mike Collins in the race for Senate. The governor's race is tighter, one of the most competitive in the south between Republican nominee, billionaire businessman Rick Jackson and Democratic candidate, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Despite delays in elections past, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has told local news that new laws require counties to report results within an hour of polls closing.
South Carolina: This is an unexpectedly tight Senate race between Sen. Darline Graham, who was appointed to the seat after her brother Linsdey Graham died, and Democratic nominee Annie Andrews. Many national polls say the race in this heavily Republican state is a toss up, while the Cook Political Report says Republicans have the advantage.
North Carolina and Ohio have Senate and governor's races to watch.
North Carolina: Polls and pundits show North Carolina's Republican-held Senate seat is the most likely flip for the Democrats. The contest is between former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman and close Trump ally. The last time Democrats won a Senate race in the state was in 2008, and the path to a Democratic majority becomes much less likely if the party loses this one.
Ohio: This is the first of the seven tight Senate races on Tuesday night that could define control of the Senate. Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown are deadlocked. Ohio used to be thought of as a swing state but in the last decade, it's become solidly Republican, so the close races have attracted attention. For governor, former state health director, Democrat Amy Acton is leading in the polls against venture capitalist, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, who recently launched an attack ad against Acton featuring her estranged mother. The blowback to the ad was so significant, it could hurt Husted as well as Ramaswamy.
Polls would now be closed in more than half the country. There is potential for calls at poll-close in governor's races in favor of Republicans in Alabama, South Dakota and Tennessee and in favor of Democrats in Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maine, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.
Maine: Despite the late entry by the Democratic candidate, Troy Jackson, the race is tough for incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins. But Collins has remained resilient in face of challenges in the past. This is another seat targeted by Democrats to pick up, in the only place a Republican holds a Senate seat in a state won by Kamala Harris in 2024.
Florida: Another former swing state that has become solidly red in recent elections, the governor's race between Republican Rep. Byron Donalds and his Democratic opponent David Jolly favors Republicans. But for Donalds to hold only a slight poll advantage follows the national trend of Republicans lagging behind in traditional strongholds. The Senate race is slightly less competitive. Incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody is poised to win over Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon. Where Florida has a lot of political consequence on election night is in its competitive House races. Florida is a state that redrew its congressional maps ahead of this election and this will be the first test. According to the Cook Political Report, seven House seats are competitive with two toss-ups.
Pennsylvania: For a significant portion of this election cycle, Pennsylvania has been the state with the most competitive House races — four, including three toss-ups. But as the map has solidified in the last month, all three toss-ups now lean toward Democrats. The last is a toss-up. Democrats could have a big night here.
New Hampshire: At one point, this race was quite close but the gap between Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and former Republican Sen. John Sununu has widened, giving Pappas the edge. Still, New Hampshire is a state with a popular Republican governor expected to win in the same election and Republicans see this as a potential long-shot pick up opportunity.
Arkansas: The Senate race is not very competitive but if Republicans' margin is smaller than usual, that could show that Democrats got more votes than usual in places that they haven't traditionally won. Plus, there's a House race here that Republicans have poured money into in the final days. Not a state to watch closely but could give insight into the larger electorate.
Another major hour for poll closures. At this point, polls are closed in more than 80% of the states. Eyes and energy will begin shifting to initial results out of Iowa, Kansas, Michigan and Texas, where competitive senate races are at play that could decide control of the chamber.
Arizona: One of the most competitive gubernatorial contests is happening in this swing state. Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is hoping to fend off MAGA-aligned Republican Rep. Andy Biggs. This has tilted toward Hobbs at the end but Arizona is known for an independent streak in politics.
There are major Senate races in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan and Texas. Three of those states are reliably Republican and Democrats' ability to be neck-and-neck in those states shows the frustration voters feel about the economy and the Trump presidency.
In Texas, a Democrat hasn't won statewide since the early 1990s. Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico faces off against Republican nominee Ken Paxton, who has had to grapple with a scandal-riddled past. Talarico could take an early lead as early voting data and mail in ballots are counted but Paxton will probably start to gain ground as counties will start reporting their totals. While the governor's race between Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and state Rep. Gina Hinojosa is also close, Abbott is still favored.
Kansas Republicans are trying to keep Sen. Roger Marshall in the Senate. This seemed like a safe seat for Republicans until Democrat Adam Hamilton entered with his moderate message. Add to that, the Trump brand is not having the same impact in Kansas as it once did and we have another race that's become too close to call.
Republicans are nervous about Iowa because the open Senate race is a little too close for comfort. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is up against Democratic moderate state Rep. Josh Turek. Plus, three of the state's four Republican-held congressional seats are competitive, with two leaning toward Democrats. Democrats have their strongest chance for a pick up at governor in Iowa with state auditor Rob Sand. He's favored after running a very strong campaign, deemphasizing partisan politics.
A lot of media oxygen this election cycle focused on Michigan as the race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers unfolded. Republicans spent money running Islamophobic ads against El-Sayed who responded by leaning deeper into his personal story. Tuesday night will reveal which struck a chord with Michiganders. If El-Sayed wins, it will be a massive victory for the progressive wing of the party but this race remains a toss-up, even as the swing state's governor contest favors the Democrat, secretary of state Jocelyn Benson over Republican Rep. John James.
Then there's Minnesota, which, like New Hampshire, is a long-shot pick up target for Republicans. What's different here is that Democrats nominated progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan who has had to answer questions about fraud in state agencies that happened under her watch. Plus, Republican candidate, former NFL sportscaster Michelle Tafoya has run a solid race and been able to toe the line between distancing from Trump and backing Republican policies. Tafoya isn't expected to win but Minnesota could be too close for comfort for Democrats.
There are many competitive House races in this time block, including toss up races in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan and New York. With such a narrow majority for Republicans in the chamber, each of these races will be closely watched to see which seats Democrats are able to flip.
Polls in three more mountain west states are closed. Eyes are on Montana, another reliably Republican state, that could surprise the country by sending a Democrat to Congress.
Montana: The state's closest race is the toss-up House race in the 1st Congressional District where Sam Forstag, the Democratic nominee and former smokejumper, and Republican Aaron Flint, a combat veteran, are in a competitive race. Another interesting race in Montana is the Senate contest. The independent candidate, Seth Bodnar, feels like he has a shot at winning the race against a Republican incumbent and a Democrat who is on the ballot but Republicans are favored.
Nevada: Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo is fighting to keep his seat in a state that has been hit hard by economic conditions. Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford is the Democratic nominee and the race is considered a toss-up.
At this point, voters in the Pacific Northwest, California and Idaho are done casting ballots. It could feel like a whole new election night has begun.
California: The state has a new congressional map affecting the state of some House races. In 2025, voters opted to redraw the boundaries in the state in response to President Trump's redistricting battle to secure more safe Republican seats. The decision made the state less competitive for Republicans and the close races have mostly tilted toward Democrats in the final weeks. But in California's Central Valley, there is a true toss-up race. There are also tax-related propositions on California's ballot, including a billionaire tax. California is a slow counting state so races may not be called quickly.
Oregon: Despite Oregon being a solidly blue state, voters are unhappy with the Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek. She faces a closer than expected race against Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan.
Alaska: The final state to finish voting on Election Day and by this point in the night (early Wednesday morning on the East Coast), people will be eagerly awaiting the first drop of results for the toss-up Senate race. Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is in a race against Democratic nominee, former Rep. Mary Peltola. But there's been some drama in the contest. There are two Dan Sullivans in the ballet. A recent investigation by the New York Times alleges the Democratic party may have recruited the other Dan Sullivan to run in order to siphon votes from the incumbent Dan Sullivan. Peltola denies any involvement in the alleged scheme.
The governor's race is also competitive, with three Republican candidates on the ballot and one Democrat. That Democrat, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, picked up a key endorsement from Alaska's other Republican senator, Lisa Murkowski. The other statewide race, Alaska's at-large congressional seat, is leaning toward Republicans but still less competitive than in past years. A note of caution: Alaska uses ranked choice voting and the results could take weeks — yes, weeks — to be finalized.
Copyright 2026 NPR
