The Brief

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Two years ago, California hit a milestone decades in the making: Nearly every person in the state qualified for health insurance, regardless of immigration status and income, pushing the state’s insured rate to a record 95%. Now that progress is unravelling.

Facing budget shortfalls and new federal restrictions, state leaders have begun rolling back the coverage system they built. Analysis at the UC Berkeley Labor Center and UCLA Center for Health Policy Research projects California's uninsured rate could nearly double, to almost 15%, by 2030.

“I knew it was going to be bad, but seeing that doubling was shocking to me,” said Miranda Dietz, director of the labor center’s healthcare program.

An estimated 2.2 million people could lose insurance over the next four years from combined state and federal cuts, the researchers found. The losses will fall hardest on undocumented immigrants and low-income Californians, with the uninsured rate more than doubling among Black and Asian Californians. The southern part of the state will bear the brunt, driven by its larger share of low-income and immigrant residents.

Many Californians remember how difficult it was to get healthcare before the state expanded and improved insurance options.

In 2008, Kandi Hill had just given birth to her third child. When she started throwing up and experiencing irregular menstrual cycles with heavy bleeding, she struggled to find a doctor who would run any tests other than an STD panel. In a matter of months, she died from stage four cervical cancer. She was 31.

Cervical cancer has a 91% five-year survival rate if caught and treated early, according to the National Cancer Institute, but back then the Medi-Cal system was bare bones, and doctors didn’t seem to take poor Black patients seriously, said her husband, Ramonte Means.

Means was left to raise two small children and an infant alone. He has been the sole provider for his family ever since, often working part-time and frequently without insurance, stitching together multiple jobs — janitorial work, customer service, job coaching — to make ends meet. Usually, Means said, his employers won’t give him full-time hours so that they don’t have to provide benefits. With multiple part-time jobs, he tries to keep his income low enough to qualify for Medi-Cal and ensure his kids stay covered too. He'd rather get insurance through an employer, but he can't afford a plan out-of-pocket.

“None of us want anything for free. I work two jobs. My kids go to school,” Means said. “We’re just asking for some dignity.”

Today’s Medi-Cal isn’t perfect, Means says, but it’s much better than when his wife died — patients have more benefits and can see specialists.

“I truly believe if all this happened now, she’d have been fine,” Means said. “The system failed my kids more than anything — failed the whole family.”

Millions gain coverage

When the Affordable Care Act passed in 2010, California quickly expanded its Medicaid program. Previously, the program was reserved for women and children, seniors, and people with disabilities. Low-income adults were excluded unless they had dependent children. The law allowed California to open enrollment to childless adults and raised the income limit to 138% of the federal poverty level — about $22,000 for an individual today.

More than 5 million Californians gained coverage, including Means, who had occasionally earned too much money before the change.

“So 138% poverty is not a lot of money in terms of increasing income, but when you talk about how many people actually become eligible, it has a significant impact,” said Nadereh Pourat, associate director at the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research.

An additional 1.7 million middle-income Californians bought insurance through the commercial Affordable Care Act marketplace known as Covered California.

“That’s a huge policy change,” said Rachel Linn Gish, spokesperson for Health Access California, a consumer advocacy group. “Millions and millions and millions of Californians covered in 10 years. No other state can say that.”

Still, one major group remained uninsured: undocumented immigrants. They account for about 2.3 million residents, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.

Newsom: The healthcare governor

Gov. Gavin Newsom campaigned on a promise to bring single-payer healthcare to the state. He pivoted to expanding access within the existing system — transforming Medi-Cal with new benefits and a focus on high-quality primary care.

The Democratic governor’s administration also launched the state’s second-largest coverage expansion, phasing in Medi-Cal eligibility for low-income undocumented adults until all adults and children qualified in 2024.

“We’re making sure that universal access to healthcare coverage becomes a reality here in California,” Newsom said in 2022 when the state allowed undocumented seniors to enroll in Medi-Cal.

Gov. Gavin Newsom listens as former state Sen. Richard Pan speaks about the need to make insulin available to everyone for $30 during the Tour of the State of California at Kaiser Permanente’s Central Refill Pharmacy in Downey on March 18, 2023.

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Keith Birmingham

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Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images

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At its peak, the state-funded expansion covered 1.4 million adults and 217,000 children and cost more than $10 billion a year.

Republican lawmakers have sharply criticized that price tag, and increasingly, so have moderate Democrats.

“We need to have cost containment,” said Sen. Catherine Blakespear, a Democrat from Encinitas, when the state passed last year’s budget.

Total Medi-Cal spending has more than doubled since Newsom took office in 2019, growing from about $96 billion to $217 billion this year. The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office attributes most of that growth to higher spending per recipient — added benefits, higher drug prices and some demographic changes — rather than enrollment alone. People are seeing doctors more, and each visit is more expensive.

Medi-Cal cuts loom

Orlando and Lourdes are immigrants from El Salvador. CalMatters is using only their middle names because they fear being identified by immigration officials. Orlando has lived in Los Angeles for more than 20 years and works in construction with a work permit. Lourdes manages a store and is undocumented.

Recent federal immigration raids have already upended their lives. They’ve had to counsel their 6-year-old daughter that there are “good police” and “bad police.” Now Lourdes, who needs radiation therapy for cancer, worries about losing her Medi-Cal insurance.

To slow Medi-Cal’s growth, the state froze enrollment for undocumented adults starting in January; roughly 86,000 fewer undocumented immigrants are covered.

Starting next summer, immigrants without legal status will lose dental benefits and face new monthly premiums. These and cuts to coverage for some legal immigrants are expected to push about 800,000 people off insurance, according to the UC Berkeley Labor Center.

“We pay taxes every year. We deserve to have health insurance,” Orlando said.

Services have also been curtailed more broadly. Last year, the state dropped coverage of weight-loss drugs like Ozempic for people who are simply overweight, keeping them only for more serious diagnoses like diabetes. This year, lawmakers scaled back wraparound services, including case management and medical meal-delivery services for low-income patients. They also reinstated a wealth test that caps how much savings an enrollee can have, regardless of their income, which advocates say punishes people for building a financial cushion.

The cuts have stirred outcry from lawmakers on the left, some of whom want the state to raise revenue through corporate taxes or other means rather than shrink Medi-Cal.

Left to right, Vanesa Duran, lead care manager at St. John’s Community Health, talks with Patient Maria Gomez, at a group home in Compton on Feb. 6, 2026.

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Jules Hotz

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Grace Calderon, HIV testing counselor and community health worker for St. John’s Community Health, takes a blood sample from a patient at a St. John’s Community Health mobile clinic in Los Angeles on Feb. 6, 2026.

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Jules Hotz

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CalMatters

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Bukola Olusanya, regional medical director for St. John’s Community Health, inside a mobile clinic van parked in Los Angeles on Feb. 6, 2026.

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Jules Hotz

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CalMatters

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Sen. Lena Gonzalez, a Democrat from Long Beach and chair of the Latino Caucus, said she pressed Newsom and his team twice to save benefits for undocumented people.

“I said this is legacy work for you, and I don’t want you to ever forget that,” Gonzalez said. “For this to happen was just really surprising.”

Linn Gish credited Newsom with supporting healthcare access "from day one" but called the recent rollbacks disappointing: “We hoped he would be a champion until the end.”

Newsom’s office declined an interview request. In a statement, the Department of Health Care Services emphasized that the Legislature voted to approve the budget that included the cuts and said Newsom remains committed to “responsibly” supporting universal coverage.

“Gov. Newsom has consistently highlighted California’s coverage gains as central to his broader commitment to universal healthcare coverage and a more inclusive safety net,” the statement said.

Federal challenges

Many Democrats, Newsom chief among them, blame President Donald Trump, whose One Big Beautiful Bill tax reform law rewrote Medi-Cal rules and cut federal funding to California. The law also let enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies expire, contributing to a 140,000-person drop in Covered California enrollment. State officials estimate the Medi-Cal program could lose more than $30 billion annually once federal changes fully take effect in 2027.

The biggest change: Many adults must now prove they’re working or volunteering at least 80 hours each month. Research has shown most low-income adults already meet requirements but lose coverage anyway because of bureaucratic errors.

“All it takes is one piece of lost mail and all of a sudden you lose coverage … and things can snowball,” said Dylan Roby, a health policy researcher and professor at UC Irvine.

Combined with shorter eligibility periods, the state estimates this will cause 1.3 million people to lose insurance in the next four years.

Those losses won’t be spread evenly. Los Angeles and other parts of Southern California could see the steepest declines, according to the Labor Center, which also projects that Latino Californians will lose coverage faster than other groups.

Linnea Koopmans, CEO of Local Health Plans of California, which represents Medi-Cal insurers, said the combined cuts will create a two-tiered system of haves and have-nots.

“There’s a lot at stake and a lot to be lost,” Koopmans said.

But some Republican lawmakers counter that blaming Washington, D.C. is disingenuous. California has run deficits for four straight years, predating most federal restrictions, which haven’t even taken effect yet.

Sen. Roger Niello, a Republican from Roseville and vice chair of the budget committee, put the current impact of federal healthcare restrictions at $3 billion out of a $351 billion state budget.

“It’s difficult (to argue) that the woes are being caused by the federal government,” Niello said, calling the state’s spending problem structural. Revenues have grown, but spending has grown faster.

The current budget leaves the toughest healthcare decisions to the next governor.

“Gov. Newsom says he solved the deficit for the next governor. He hasn’t,” Niello said.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.

A year and a half after the Eaton Fire, Gil Barel is still waiting to move back into the Pasadena home she has rented for nearly a decade.

Her complex did not burn down, but smoke engulfed it for days during the January 2025 fire. Barel wants to make sure it’s safe for her and her two children, one who’s college-age and one who’s 12, to move back. A test she ordered found toxic materials; now she’s waiting for the result of more testing her landlord is required to do because of a new California law.

Her landlord got the unit cleaned in March, but then Barel found various belongings under the sofa and behind other furniture, which indicated to her the cleaning was superficial. She said it was also obvious the floors and walls were not properly cleaned.

“The issue is that I have no control,” Barel said. “It really depends on the conversation between my landlord and their insurance company. If the landlord does the minimum, or if they don’t feel the need to fight or be insistent on certain things, then it’s not going to happen.”

Her story is one of many that illustrate why the health of California’s property insurance market — availability of affordable policies, and insurers that pay claims promptly and fairly — matters not just to homeowners but also to renters, who make up about 44% of the state’s residents. Insurance affects the cost of rent, housing supply and the ability of communities to recover from disaster.

In November, Californians will elect the state’s next insurance commissioner, a position that will play an important role in the recovery from last year’s Los Angeles County fires and the state of the insurance market.

Barel has her own renters insurance, for which she pays $114 a year with a multi-policy discount, she said. So far, her insurer has paid her several thousand dollars since the fire: $6,000 for loss-of-use coverage, which helps for additional living expenses when a renter is displaced, and $2,100 for some of her personal belongings.

Items are boxed up in Gil Barel’s living room and bedroom in Pasadena on Aug. 2, 2026. Barel is currently not living in her apartment because of the Eaton Fire of January 2025.

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Ariana Drehsler

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Items are boxed up in Gil Barel’s living room and bedroom in Pasadena on Aug. 2, 2026. Barel is currently not living in her apartment because of the Eaton Fire of January 2025.

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Ariana Drehsler

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She just finished an inventory, which she will send to her insurer to claim more of her $35,000 maximum benefit for personal belongings.

“I was stuck for a long time,” Barel said. “It’s extremely overwhelming. There are a lot of personal things. These are our stories. This is our life.”

Her renters insurance did not cover the industrial hygienist testing that she ordered for her unit, which found high levels of lithium, chromium and other heavy metals, likely a byproduct of the smoke and fire residue, according to a report she shared with CalMatters. Because the blaze occurred in the wildland-urban interface, the “smoke frequently contains a broader and more toxic mixture of particulates and chemical by-products,” the report said. The industrial hygienist recommended additional testing and cleaning.

Now, after she got the city of Pasadena involved to help pressure her landlord to do more, she’s hoping she’ll soon be able to move out of the Altadena back house she has been living in since the fire. FEMA has paid for that, but the aid is set to expire in October so she’s getting worried. She has continued to pay rent for her apartment all this time, she said.

“It’s not a possibility for me to move elsewhere,” she said. “We have rent control. It was perfect for the kids when we moved in. It had a courtyard; it was near the schools; everything.”

Gil Barel at her apartment complex in Pasadena on Aug. 2, 2026.

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Ariana Drehsler

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In Altadena, the area north of Pasadena that bore the brunt of the deadly Eaton Fire, 22% of households were tenants and more than one-third of the rental market was rent-controlled, according to research by the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute. The researchers also noted that prior to the fire, Altadena tenant households had much lower incomes than homeowner households, and were more likely to have their short-term displacement turn into long-term housing instability.

Renters insurance

California does not require renters to have insurance, but some landlords require their tenants to have their own policies.

Emily Rogan, senior program officer for United Policyholders, a consumer advocacy group, recommends renters get insurance because of situations like Barel’s.

“Renters insurance buys you a deep breath as you think about where to go next,” Rogan said, adding that people often have a lot of difficult decisions to make after a fire or other disaster.

In addition, “in the current political climate, there’s a trend where FEMA declarations are not as frequent as they used to be,” Rogan said. A FEMA declaration unlocks federal funding after a disaster, so fewer declarations could mean less help available.

Rogan also said that because of inflation, almost everything costs more to replace. So she said it’s helpful to have renters coverage “even if you fall under the camp of ‘Oh, my stuff’s not worth much.’ ”

Insurance effects on rents, housing supply

An insurance broker, an affordable-housing operator and landlords who spoke with CalMatters painted a mixed picture about insurance availability and affordability as California continues to deal with a challenging insurance market. As the state has seen increased wildfire and other risks, such as litigation, some insurers have stopped writing policies for commercial properties.

Robert Guerrero, a broker in Madera County, said Mercury is offering new policies in several California counties, though not the ones where he has clients. There are also non-admitted insurance carriers — companies not licensed and regulated by the state, and not backed by the state if they go bankrupt — offering policies, he said. The state Insurance Department keeps a list of non-admitted, a.k.a. surplus, insurers on its website. Policyholders who agree to buy a policy from a non-admitted carrier will receive and be asked to sign a disclosure form.

“It’s still very dicey out there,” said Guerrero, whose agency offers homeowner, auto, commercial property and life insurance services.

Mike Placido, a landlord in Los Angeles County who owns four units in San Gabriel and a duplex in Alhambra, first spoke with CalMatters two years ago for an article about how insurance was affecting the rental market. Since then, he said insurance rates have increased more modestly, to the point where he feels like it’s more of a “normal” insurance market.

“It’s not causing me to raise rents as dramatically as I did before,” Placido said. “I guess the market has stabilized.”

He said he has a couple of insurance policies with State Farm, while his other policies are with non-admitted carriers, which worries him.

“There’s some aspect of safety when you’re going with a big company,” Placido said. “You don’t know if a smaller insurance company will be around (long term).”

Uwe Karbenk, co-owner of a 33-unit apartment building in San Bernardino, said he’s not very optimistic about insurance costs. They went down last year but are back at the same level as two years ago, he said. He raised rents in 2024, kept them the same last year, and now plans to raise them again this year, he said.

He said he has made upgrades worth hundreds of thousands of dollars for the building’s electrical system and a new roof, but that hasn’t lowered his insurance premiums.

Two people survey the damage of their home that was burned to the ground in an Altadena neighborhood affected by the Eaton Fire on Jan. 8, 2025

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Jules Hotz

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For fire insurance, he said insurance companies now “really check the building and they will write you up for stuff they don’t like. They call it recommendations, but it’s a stipulation. You need to do it, otherwise you risk cancellation of insurance.”

Bottom line, Karbenk said: “Repairs are so much more expensive and replacement costs are so much higher. There’s no way around paying much more for insurance.”

Insurance woes are also affecting affordable housing developments.

Little Tokyo Service Center, a Los Angeles community development group that owns and operates more than 1,000 affordable housing units across different properties in the area, has seen its insurance costs skyrocket.

Between 2023 and 2024, the group’s annual insurance costs jumped from about $800,000 to $2.7 million, according to Erich Nakano, former executive director and now director of special projects of the group. The deductibles for those policies, which ranged from $10,000 to $50,000, increased to more than $100,000, he said.

That meant tapping the group’s reserves because it’s hard to raise rents on those who live in affordable housing, as well as looking for alternatives to reduce insurance costs. Last year, the group joined a so-called insurance captive — about 40 groups, including for-profit real estate firms, from around the country that have banded together to self-insure.

“it’s an existential crisis,” Nakano said. “We can’t sustain these levels of insurance premiums.”

This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.

Topline:

 Many musical artists today go out of their way to keep politics out of their performances. But for country singer Bryan Andrews, his progressive politics define his art.

Andrews' lyrics condemn billionaire greed, stand up for undocumented immigrants and call out mainstream country. He's gathered nearly 4 million followers on TikTok, and his album Independence Day came out just in time for the nation's 250th anniversary. This fall, his "Taking My Flag Back" tour comes to the Moroccan Lounge in LA.

Andrews' backstory

Andrews is from Missouri, but he was working as a welder in Minnesota when he decided to turn to music full-time.

"My hometown radio station played the song Liquor and Pills, and I took a video of it," Andrews said. "That ended up going viral. The next week, I called my boss, and I was like, 'Hey, I'm not coming back to work.'"

Andrews said his passion for politics and policy came from his liberal parents, but he was initially hesitant to put his beliefs into his music.

"I've been a liberal in a small town my whole life," Andrews said. "I know what people in small towns think of Democrats. But I started watching all the things happen with the LA ICE raids, and then Minneapolis, and then the shooting that just happened in Maine, and I couldn't keep my mouth shut anymore."

The classic artists inspiring TikTok hits

One of Andrews' songs that's gone viral on TikTok is "Yeehaw," which features the line, "Willie, Waylon, Johnny Cash, they're gonna want their records back." Andrews said mainstream country music has forgotten the politics of its outlaw past.

"The real outlaws, The Highwaymen, Cash, Kristofferson, Nelson, Jennings, all those guys were very economically educated when it came to the government and how the government spends their money," Andrews said. "A lot of those guys were hard leftists. Country music has always been rooted in standing up for the working man. Johnny Cash wrote a song called "The Man in Black" that is basically all about him standing in solidarity with folks on welfare who have been taken advantage of by a system that's rigged against them."

Taking the show on the road

Andrews' "Taking My Flag Back" tour comes to the Moroccan Lounge for a sold-out show on December 12. In an era when many social media stars have problems converting followers into live show attendees, Andrews said he doesn't take his success for granted.

"It's just been incredible for me, especially in this economy," Andrews said. "People going out and spending 30 bucks to just come hear me play my music, they deserve it a whole lot more than I do, so I'm gonna go out there and give them the best show I possibly can."

Andrews is aware that his outspoken politics may keep him out of some corners of mainstream country music.

"If they don't want to accept me into their spaces, then that's OK. I'll make my own space," Andrews says. "We've built this whole thing organically anyways. If I gotta build this road myself with all these fans, then we can do that. We're up for the challenge."

This story first appeared on The LA Local.

Gustavo Dudamel’s final performance as music and artistic director of the LA Phil will strike a bittersweet note, marking the end of his remarkable tenure here while at the same time serving his home country. The Hollywood Bowl concert will serve as a farewell and a fundraiser, bringing together musicians to support earthquake recovery efforts in his native Venezuela after a disaster that killed thousands and displaced residents across the country.

Dudamel — the legendary, curly-haired Venezuelan wunderkind from El Sistema — took over the Los Angeles Philharmonic 17 years ago and turned L.A.’s classical music scene into an absolute fiesta, becoming the rockstar maestro Angelenos proudly claimed as their own. Sadly for us, Dudamel is leaving Los Angeles to lead the New York Philharmonic in September. 

Gustavo Dudamel is introduced as the New York Philharmonic’s 27th music and artistic director, Monday, Feb. 20, 2023.

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John Minchillo

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AP Photo

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In honor of Dudamel’s remarkable legacy with the Los Angeles Philharmonic, which includes marquee performances at the Super Bowl and Coachella, he will be honored with a week of concerts in late August. His final performance, A Concert for Venezuela, is slated for Sunday, August 23.

The special benefit concert is in response to the two catastrophic earthquakes that struck northern Venezuela on June 24, 2026, killing more than 6,000 people, injuring more than 16,000 others — including civilians trapped beneath the rubble of collapsed buildings — and displacing thousands from their homes. 

“Venezuela will always be my home, and every moment, my thoughts are with the families whose lives have been forever changed by this tragedy. The suffering is immense, but so is the strength and resilience of our people,” Dudamel said in a statement.

Gustavo Dudamel conducts musicians from the LA Phil, Youth Orchestra Los Angeles (YOLA) outside the Walt Disney Concert Hall downtown Los Angeles on Sept. 30, 2018.

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Damian Dovarganes

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Dudamel will lead the full program, which will also include the Youth Orchestra Los Angeles and a stellar lineup of guest artists: eight-time Grammy winner Beck, Venezuelan harpist Eduardo Betancourt, Café Tacvba co-founder Meme del Real, Venezuelan cuatro virtuoso Jorge Glem, Latin Grammy powerhouse Natalia Lafourcade, Venezuelan pop singer-songwriter Lasso, bandola player Moisés Torrealba and vallenato pioneer Carlos Vives. More special guests are expected to be announced ahead of the show.

All donations raised by the concert will help affected communities in Venezuela and will be directed to Dudamel’s Earthquake Recovery, the United Nations Development Programme to support relief efforts, and the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF) fund, which supports  El Sistema students, staff members, families and facilities affected by the earthquakes.

“Every person who joins us and every contribution made is a reminder to the people of Venezuela that they are not alone. Together, through music, generosity, and hope, we will help our country heal and rebuild,” Dudamel said.

Gustavo Dudamel at work.

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Ryan Hunter

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The LA Phil

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Dudamel has championed multiple charities and fundraisers throughout the years, dedicating his time to producing programs such as Icons on Inspiration, a recorded virtual gala he presented during the pandemic that featured performers including actress Julie Andrews, actor and rapper Common, singer-songwriter Katy Perry and pianist Yuja Wang. He also led Gustavo’s Fiesta Gala, which marked his final gala at the Walt Disney Concert Hall, to raise funds for the orchestra’s learning and community initiatives.

Throughout his career, Dudamel has used music as a way to bring people together in moments of need. His final LA Phil summer concert continues that tradition — turning a farewell performance into an act of support for the country that shaped him.

For most Californians, the milestone of buying a “starter home” is increasingly happening long after the start of adult life.

A new analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by the Public Policy Institute of California finds that the age at which a majority of Californians turn from renters to homeowners is 47. In the rest of the country, a majority of people are homeowners by 36.

“It's quite staggering,” said Chris Duff, president of the Greater Los Angeles Association of Realtors. “The age does seem to be climbing every year, especially here in California.”

The numbers that explain why so many Californians are locked out 

High home prices, unyielding mortgage interest rates, sluggish construction of new homes and lackluster wage growth are all conspiring to keep many younger adults locked out of homeownership, real estate experts said.

Those factors exist across the country, but they’re especially acute in Southern California. According to recent data from the California Association of Realtors:

• The median home price in L.A. County was $879,900 in the second quarter of 2026. That was more than double the national median home price of $434,900.

• Only about 17% of L.A. households earn the $219,200 minimum income needed to afford a typical $5,480 monthly payment.

Younger buyers need to get creative — or get help from mom and dad

Larissa Rubijevsky, a realtor focused on L.A.’s South Bay neighborhoods, told LAist that when she began working in Southern California in the early 2000s, her first-time buyer clients tended to be in their early 30s.

Homes were already expensive back then, but Census data shows that first-time buyers were indeed younger. In 2009, a majority of Californians had become homeowners by age 41, according to the Public Policy Institute analysis.

These days, Rubijevsky said she sees millennial and Gen Z buyers making sacrifices just to try to enter the market.

“Sometimes they have to move in with their parents for a certain amount of time and save money,” she said. “Some of them are trying to buy property with their peers, with their friends, and then share the title 50-50.”

Others are hitting up their parents for down payment gifts, Rubijevsky said.

She said she saw her clients get noticeably older after the buying frenzy of the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. In those days, homes cost less and interest rates were low. Today’s prices and monthly payments are simply out of reach for most younger buyers, she said.

“People would like to have the American Dream,” Rubijevsky said. “When people can't do that, they're forced to leave the state… That's not a happy decision for them, but they just don't have any choice anymore.”

Why the trend toward older homebuyers matters for California

Between 2015 and 2025, California’s net migration included a loss of 884,000 people who cited high housing costs as their primary reason for leaving the state.

Marisol Cuellar Mejia — a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California who co-authored the recent homebuying analysis — said home ownership continues to be the main way for most families to build the kind of wealth they can pass on to the next generation.

“Younger adults in California are missing out on long-term wealth building,” Cuellar Mejia said.

She said the trend will have “a cascade effect that has a lot of implications” for lawmakers and individual families. Californians who need to wait until their 40s to buy a home could decide to delay marriage, have fewer children and keep working beyond a traditional retirement age.

Across Southern California, typical homebuying ages vary widely by location, education level, immigration status and ethnicity. In L.A. County, where most residents are renters, homeowners only begin to outnumber renters at age 59. In Riverside County, where homes are cheaper, that age is 39.

White and Asian Californians tend to become homeowners younger than Black Californians, according to the analysis. So do college graduates when compared with those without a college degree. California’s Latino immigrants are more likely to rent than own a home in every age bracket.

Vivian Chen, a mortgage lender with Southern California-based Exceed Lending, said some buyers are still able to secure their first home in their 20s and 30s by participating in government-funded down payment assistance programs, such as the California Dream For All Shared Appreciation Loan and various other county and city-funded programs.

“We are doing quite a few every month,” Chen said. “Those programs are actually helping a lot of first-time buyers.”

Is more government help on the way? 

California voters will be asked to approve new homebuying assistance funds in the upcoming November general election. Proposition 37 seeks to create a “middle class” down payment assistance program funded by revenue bonds of up to $25 billion.

Under the proposed program, homebuyers earning up to 200% of their area’s median income could apply for state funding to cover down payments of up to 17% for newly-built homes. That assistance would come in the form of a loan, not a grant, with recipients likely needing to pay back the money in monthly installments.

Republican California State Assemblymember Carl DeMaio has opposed Prop. 37, saying it would turn the state into one of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders and leave taxpayers on the hook for potential financial losses.

Supporters — including the California Association of Realtors — argue the measure would incentivize developers to build new for-sale housing rather than rental units, something that has been increasingly rare in Southern California.

“We've really closed the revolving door when it comes to that first-time homebuyer getting a small one-bedroom or two-bedroom condo and then moving up as their life circumstances change,” said Duff, the Greater L.A. Association of Realtors president. “Since we're not building that construction, we don't have that inventory.”