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The Brief

The most important stories for you to know today
  • Study says 'winner's curse' leads to higher prices
    At night, a brush fire rolling down a hill from above approaches an illuminated house.
    A photograph taken on Dec. 2, 2020 shows a brush fire near houses along Willow Glenn Road in El Cajon, California.

    Topline:

    Climate change is a major driver of higher insurance rates. But the economic principle of “winner’s curse” can lead to higher prices and less participation in insurance markets due to a lack of information on wildfire risks, University of California researchers say.

    What's the winner's curse?: The winner’s curse refers to a concept by which firms that “win” certain customers’ business might end up losing money in the long run because they are taking on higher risks.

    The backstory: Insurance prices have been going up as wildfire risks have been creeping into more populated areas of California in recent years because of climate change, not to mention a lack of competition due to many insurers leaving the market.

    How to mitigate the 'curse': One big way is to improve access to granular data on risk for a particular area or property. That can help insurers come to pricing decisions based on hard information rather than assumptions about risk and pricing based on the market.

    Many factors driving up the price of homeowner insurance in California are well-documented. There’s the fact that wildfire risks have been creeping into more populated areas of California in recent years because of climate change, as well as a lack of competition due to many insurers leaving the market.

    But there’s another less known factor, according to a new working paper by University of California researchers: an economic principle called the “winner’s curse.”

    Wait, how can winners be cursed?

    If it’s been a while since your last economics course (or if you never took one), the winner’s curse refers to a concept by which firms that “win” certain customers’ business might end up losing money in the long run because they are taking on higher risks.

    “Imagine you and I are insurance companies and we're competing; we're operating in the same market,” said Meredith Fowlie, an agriculture and resource economics professor at UC Berkeley. “You are getting granular, high-resolution wildfire risk data and assessments, and I'm not.”

    In this case, the insurance company that uses less-detailed data to set its prices assumes it's only “winning” customers whose properties carry high risks. If not, the logic goes, why else would its competitors with more detailed information on the risk of wildfires not snap them up?

    “The winner's curse here is the homes I'm winning,” Fowlie said.

    How does the winner's curse affect pricing?

    Insurers with less detailed data are reasonably led to believe that the homes left on the market are higher-risk properties that other insurers passed up (or set prohibitively high prices for).

    In these cases, insurers “don't want to price it the average because [they’re] concerned,” Fowlie said — so they raise their prices due to these real concerns.

    And that, the researchers found, contributes to insurers setting higher homeowner insurance premiums and even withdrawing from some large markets with risks that are difficult to model or predict, like wildfires.

    Other factors affect pricing, too

    Fowlie stressed that she and her fellow researchers only studied the winner’s curse in relation to wildfire risks and not other natural disasters like floods psor earthquakes.

    “There's a number of factors putting an upward pressure on prices,” Fowlie said. “We are not suggesting this is the one and only, but we did want to sort of elevate consideration of one of the factors that could be pushing prices up.”

    The need for better data

    One big way to mitigate the effect of the winner’s curse on pricing, Fowlie said, was improving access to granular data on risk for a particular area or property. That can help insurers come to pricing decisions based on hard information rather than assumptions about risk and pricing based on the market.

    While the study focused solely on how access to data on wildfire risk affects pricing, other studies have demonstrated the benefit of property-level and neighborhood-level data when it comes to assessing risks of other natural disasters like flooding.

    These factors will be especially important as officials try to get a handle on the insurance affordability crisis as more and more of the state faces risks of wildfire, even leading some insurers to exit the market.

    “This was not what we fully expected going into this research: That insurers in the same insurance market are taking very different approaches to pricing wildfire risk,” Fowlie said.

  • Reopens Strait of Hormuz, big issues remain
    A man wearing a dark suit jacket and white shirt stands at the top of a flight of stairs entering an airplane. He is pointing towards the camera with his right hand.
    U.S. President Donald Trump boards Air Force One before departing Joint Base Andrews in Maryland to fly to Evian-les-Bains, France, for the G7 summit on June 15, 2026.

    Topline:

    President Donald Trump and Iran declared they've reached an agreement intended to end more than three months of war in Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If the agreement works as planned, several key developments are supposed to happen almost immediately.

    The deal: The U.S. and Iran will end the sporadic attacks that have been taking place despite a ceasefire. The Israel-Hezbollah fighting in Lebanon should stop. And Iran and the U.S. will lift their dueling blockades of the Strait of Hormuz that has prevented oil from leaving the Gulf, driving up prices across the world. The agreement extends the current U.S.-Iran ceasefire for 60 days. The goal in upcoming talks will be a permanent end to the war.

    Critical issues left unresolved: The fate of Iran's nuclear program will be negotiated, but remains unresolved for now.

    What's next: An official signing ceremony will take place on Friday in Switzerland. Trump said Sunday the strait will be opened for mine removal after the deal is signed Friday. Iran made an end to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon a condition for a deal with the U.S. However, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Monday the country would keep troops in southern Lebanon indefinitely.

    President Trump and Iran declared they've reached an agreement intended to end more than three months of war in Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

    The deal, scheduled to be formally signed Friday in Switzerland, marks a major breakthrough in the conflict that set the Middle East aflame and shook the global economy.

    "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all!" Trump wrote on social media on Sunday evening.

    Iran's Supreme National Security Council said the deal was reached "following a difficult and intensive period of negotiations lasting several months."

    If the agreement works as planned, several key developments are supposed to happen almost immediately.

    The U.S. and Iran will end the sporadic attacks that have been taking place despite a ceasefire. The Israel-Hezbollah fighting in Lebanon should stop. And Iran and the U.S. will lift their dueling blockades of the Strait of Hormuz that has prevented oil from leaving the Gulf, driving up prices across the world.

    "Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!" Trump said in his post.

    However, the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran did not resolve several critical issues that must still be worked out in another round of negotiations.

    The text of the deal was not immediately released, but has been widely described by U.S. and Iranian officials and in media reports.

    The agreement extends the current U.S.-Iran ceasefire for 60 days. The goal in upcoming talks will be a permanent end to the war.

    The fate of Iran's nuclear program will be negotiated, but remains unresolved for now. Trump made no mention of the nuclear issue in his initial posts, though this is the main reason he cited for launching the war in February.

    In an interview with The New York Times, Trump said Iran would be permitted low-level nuclear enrichment. In the past, he has repeatedly called for the dismantling of Iran's entire nuclear program.

    Also, Iran wants billions of dollars in its assets that have been frozen abroad, and the lifting of U.S. and international sanctions.

    These issues will be difficult to resolve, and it's not clear what happens if agreement is not reached during the 60 days of negotiations.

    Trump told The New York Times that if no deal was reached, he could relaunch attacks on Iran or make the U.S. "the guardian of the Middle East" in return for 20% of the region's revenues.

    Signing set for Friday

    Pakistan's prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, who played a key mediating role in the negotiations, said an official signing ceremony will take place on Friday in Switzerland. Trump said the same in a second Truth Social post Sunday evening.

    Iran Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, quoted by Iranian state media in a post on Telegram, said Iran sees this deal as a victory.

    Iran has effectively controlled the Strait of Hormuz since shortly after the war began on Feb. 28, virtually shutting down the vital passage for around 20 percent of the world's oil. The U.S. blockaded Iranian ports in response.

    The U.S. says Iran has laid mines in the strait. Trump said Sunday the strait will be opened for mine removal after the deal is signed Friday.

    Iran made an end to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon a condition for a deal with the U.S.

    However, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Monday the country would keep troops in southern Lebanon indefinitely.

    Israel and Hezbollah have continued to fight daily despite an official ceasefire. On Sunday, Hezbollah fired drones into northern Israel, according to the Israeli military.

    Israel responded with a deadly airstrike on a Hezbollah stronghold in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

    Trump criticized the Israeli action.

    "This morning's attack on Beirut should not have happened, particularly on a special day when we are so close to a peace deal with Iran," Trump wrote on Truth Social, hours before he announced the agreement with Iran.

    Trump and Netanyahu speak often by phone, but they've been at odds on several occasions recently and Israel was not directly involved in the negotiations with Iran.

    Israeli officials have said previously that they would support an agreement, but they had many reservations about the terms that were being discussed.

    Leaders in the Middle East and Europe praised the deal.

    Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, who helped mediate the deal alongside Pakistan, praised the breakthrough. He thanked Pakistan, urging "positive and constructive" negotiations ahead.

    European leaders from the U.K., France, Germany and Italy also welcomed the deal, calling for swift implementation. They also called for the urgent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and reaffirmed support for Lebanon's sovereignty and stability.

    French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking in a video on Instagram as G7 leaders prepare to meet in Evian, said talks would focus on the long-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the wider diplomatic opportunity created by the agreement.

    U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called the deal a "critical step," with his spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric saying he hopes parties will build on the momentum and "redouble their efforts towards a final resolution of the conflict."

    Copyright 2026 NPR

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  • In Orange County, $104K qualifies as ‘low income’
    A mix of high rise buildings and low level buildings are visible in the skyline, trees are visible to the right of the image.
    Aerial view of the downtown Irvine skyline.

    Topline:

    In much of the country, a six-figure salary is a benchmark for success. That sixth digit tends to symbolize professional achievement and a degree of financial security. But in Orange County, individuals earning up to $104,200 now qualify as “low income.”

    The numbers: California’s Department of Housing and Community Development released its official state income limits for 2026 on May 29. These thresholds determine who qualifies for income-restricted apartments and other housing assistance programs. Under the new limits, one-person households in Orange County earning $104,200 per year or less are eligible for low income housing. Last year, the cut-off was $94,750.

    The reaction: Young professionals earning close to the limit told LAist homeownership feels like a distant dream. Housing advocates blamed local elected leaders for failing to address the region’s affordability crisis.

    Read on … to learn why Orange County’s “low income” limit is actually slightly higher than the region’s median income.

    In much of the country, a six-figure salary is a benchmark for success. That sixth digit tends to symbolize professional achievement and a degree of financial security.

    But in Orange County, individuals earning up to $104,200 now qualify as “low income.”

    California’s Department of Housing and Community Development released its official state income limits for 2026 on May 29. These thresholds determine who is eligible for income-restricted apartments and other housing assistance programs.

    Under the new limits, one-person households in Orange County earning $104,200 per year or less qualify for low-income housing. Last year, the cut-off was $94,750.

    “It just feels so crazy to me,” said Megan Junanto, a 23-year-old actuary living in Irvine. She recently received a raise putting her above the low-income threshold. But last year, she would have qualified.

    “I felt like one of the most well off compared to people in my age group, and I am near low income, and last year I was low income,” Junanto said.

    Housing policy experts say the ever-rising goalposts for financial stability make it hard for Orange County to retain teachers, nurses and other middle-income workers, who are needed to make a local economy function.

    Despite earning relatively high incomes, some young residents feel they need to give up on the idea of buying a home in Orange County.

    Junanto is able to rent an apartment with her boyfriend. But she said homeownership feels out of reach. Her immigrant parents bought a house in Garden Grove in the early 2000s on her father’s wages alone, she said. Now, the same home would cost at least $1 million.

    “Those jokes about how you should have bought a house as a fetus, that definitely resonates,” Junanto said. “How hard do we have to work in order to attain that?”

    High-income workers still far from achieving homeownership

    According to a recent report from the California Association of Realtors, only about 16% of Orange County households earn the minimum annual income of $350,400 needed to afford the region’s median home price of $1,442,930.

    Advocates for increased housing production blame local elected leaders for failing to address the region’s affordability crisis.

    “By choosing to not allow new housing development, we effectively force people into being poor,” said Elizabeth Hansburg, director of People for Housing OC.

    UC Irvine conducted a survey in 2024 that found 51% of residents have considered leaving Orange County. They cited the cost of housing cited as their most common concern.

    Hansburg said if cities don’t update zoning and permitting rules to let developers build more apartments, townhomes and condos, workers earning around $100,000 per year will choose to look for cheaper housing elsewhere.

    “They're the most likely to move out of Orange County, because those are the people whose quality of life will be most improved by lower housing costs,” Hansburg said.

    What about workers earning even less?

    According to a recent report from the California Housing Partnership, Orange County renters need to earn about $56 per hour, or about $116,000 on a full-time salary, in order to afford the region’s average monthly asking rent of $2,913.

    Many low-income workers earn nowhere near that amount. Full-time minimum wage workers earn about a third of the county’s new $104,200 low-income limit.

    Cesar Covarrubias is executive director of The Kennedy Commission, a nonprofit focused on affordable housing in the region. He said many workers typically can’t pay for rent on their own.

    “People have to double up, overcrowd, have two or three families live together,” Covarrubias said.

    “That burden is heavier on the low-income families,” Covarrubias said. “The higher-income families, yes, a lot of their money is going towards housing. But their income is still helping them move on and be able to survive.”

    College graduates move back home 

    Some young professionals are continuing to live in their childhood homes.

    Joe Silva, a 26-year-old client billing analyst at an investment management company, lives with his mother and two younger brothers in a one-bedroom apartment in Santa Ana.

    Silva said despite earning around $85,000 per year, his income isn’t enough to move the family into a larger two-bedroom unit.

    “They want you making around two-and-a-half times whatever the rent is,” said Silva, a Claremont McKenna College graduate. “You have to make close to $110,000 to get a place.”

    Silva said he worked hard in college and has progressed in his career. But he still feels behind on keeping up with Orange County housing costs.

    “If you ask anyone my age, I don't think most people are even looking at owning a home at this point,” Silva said. “That's how bad it's gotten.”

    Digging deeper into the data

    In Orange County, workers can qualify as “low-income” while still earning more than most other workers in the county. Because of a quirk in the way the thresholds are calculated, the low-income limit is higher than the county’s median income of $97,000 for individuals.

    That’s because officials weigh income data against local housing costs. When housing costs are exceptionally high, officials increase the income limits to give more people access to assistance.

    “Even if you have an income that seems high by national standards, you're very likely to find housing extremely unaffordable” in Orange County, said Nicholas Marantz, an associate professor of urban planning and public policy at UC Irvine.

    Marantz said the rules behind the government calculations account for this imbalance between wages and housing costs, which “results in these situations that seem, to many people, somewhat absurd.”

    How OC stacks up to other counties

    The state’s income limits vary depending on household size and location. A family of four is low income in Orange County if it earns $148,850 per year or less. In neighboring Los Angeles County, the cut-offs are lower: $93,300 for individuals and $133,250 for families of four.

    Individuals earning six-figure salaries also qualify as low income in Santa Barbara County, as well as in many parts in and around the San Francisco Bay Area, such as Marin County, San Mateo County, Santa Clara County, Santa Cruz County and San Francisco County.

    Adam Sampsell said he earns about $108,000 as a mechanical engineer. He splits rent with a roommate in the city of Orange. He said he’s earning more than many of his peers, but still feels burdened by the region’s housing costs.

    “It is quite disheartening,” Sampsell said. “Even though I have this high salary, and I'll probably continue to increase my salary as I get more experience in my job, there's a very high likelihood that without marrying somebody soon, I will never be able to afford a house.”

  • A hip-hop block party, Bloomsday and more
    A Black man with headphones around his neck stands in front of a computer that says "DJ R-Tistic."
    The Hip-Hop Block Party returns to the Grammy Museum this week.

    In this edition:

    Bloomsday, a hip-hop block party, a live podcast recording and more of the best things to do this week.

    Highlights:

    • Pod Save America host Jon Lovett’s other popular podcast, Lovett or Leave It, discusses the week’s events, and you can be part of it as it shoots live in Hollywood. This week, Lovett welcomes Myki Meeks, Mark Indelicato, Atsuko Okatsuka, Bruce Vilanch and Brendan Scannell to the mic. 
    • James Joyce and his landmark book Ulysses are celebrated on June 16 at bookworm events around the world, so join the fun at Hammer for their 17th annual Bloomsday event.
    • The massive hip-hop block party at the Grammy Museum is (officially) sold out, but keep an eye out for returns or a waitlist. This year’s celebration features an L.A. Drumline performance, panels on Black music and film criticism, a poetry open mic, comedy, trivia games and much more.

    British-born (but longtime Angeleno) artist David Hockney died last week, but he forever captured the spirit of Los Angeles in his work and left an indelible mark on the city. From his regular gallery shows at the L.A. Louver to retrospectives at LACMA to set designs for the L.A. Opera to his influence on films like Steve Martin’s Shopgirl, his bold colors pop up everywhere. Honor his spirit and go see some local art, hop in a turquoise pool, or take a hike up Nichols Canyon!

    Music picks from Licorice Pizza for the week include electropop duo Sylvan Esso’s four-night run at Sid The Cat Auditorium starting Monday, and singer-songwriter Em Beihold is at the Troubadour.

    Tuesday’s a good night for ‘90s rock fans of various kinds, with Metric, Broken Social Scene and Stars at the Greek Theatre, while Our Lady Peace with the Verve Pipe are at the Belasco. Piano legend Bruce Hornsby will also be playing his first of two shows at the Troubadour.

    On Wednesday, Glinda herself, Ariana Grande, is at the Forum (she’ll also be there over the weekend), and Thursday, there’s digicore star Jane Remover at the Fonda, alt R&B artist Choker at the El Rey and viral one-man band ZEP at the Echo — he'll be there Saturday too.

    Elsewhere on LAist, we have all your World Cup Fan Fest info, free tickets to the Casa México Viewing Party at LA Plaza with LAist for the Mexico vs. South Korea match on Thursday and Larry Mantle’s Film Week recs.

    Events

    Lovett or Leave It podcast taping

    Tuesday, June 16, 6 p.m.
    Interwoven Studios Hollywood
    800 Seward Street, Hollywood
    COST: $12.51; MORE INFO 

    A light-skinned man stands with a microphone onstage in front of a screen that reads "Lovett or Leave It."
    Jon Lovett will host a live podcast recording this week.
    (
    Paul Morigi
    /
    Getty Images for Crooked Media
    )

    Pod Save America host Jon Lovett’s other popular podcast, Lovett or Leave It, discusses the week’s events, and you can be part of it as it shoots live in Hollywood. This week, Lovett welcomes Myki Meeks, Mark Indelicato, Atsuko Okatsuka, Bruce Vilanch and Brendan Scannell to the mic.


    L.A. Dance Project: City of Dance

    Wednesday, June 17, 7 p.m.
    Hollywood Forever 
    6000 Santa Monica Blvd., Hollywood 

    Thursday, June 19, 12 p.m.
    Gloria Molina Grand Park
    200 N. Grand Ave., Downtown L.A.
    COST: FREE; MORE INFO

    L.A. Dance Project is bringing dance off the stage and into public spaces across L.A. this month, with two performances this week at Hollywood Forever and on the plaza at Jerry Moss Plaza Jerry Moss Plaza at the Music Center. Both shows will incorporate the city’s surroundings into unique outdoor performances that reflect the landscape, views and cultural memories of these L.A. landmarks.


    Bloomsday 2026

    Tuesday, June 16, 7:30 p.m. 
    Hammer Museum 
    10899 Wilshire Blvd., Westwood 
    COST: FREE; MORE INFO

    An old, bluish book that says "Ulysses by James Joyce" on the cover.
    (
    Geoffrey Barker
    /
    CC BY-SA 4.0
    )

    James Joyce and his landmark book Ulysses are celebrated on June 16 at bookworm events around the world, so join the fun at Hammer for their 17th annual Bloomsday event. A cast of veteran actors will celebrate Molly Bloom, delivering dramatic readings from the novel interspersed with songs. Get there before the museum closes at 6 p.m. and check out the excellent Several Eternities in a Day exhibit first.


    California Light and Space 

    Through August 1
    David Zwirner Gallery
    606 N. Western Ave., Melrose Hill
    COST: FREE; MORE INFO

    A view from behind the Hotel Roosevelt with an orange sky at sunset.
    (
    Courtesy David Zwirner Gallery
    )

    California’s art scene was put on the map with the “Light and Space” movement of the 1960s and '70s, with artists like James Turrell, Robert Irwin and others who reimagined art for the West Coast. David Zwirner Gallery’s new show thinks about the movement in a more modern context, bringing in 21st-century artists for a sweeping exhibit. Rodney McMillian, Catherine Opie, Manuel López and a dozen other accomplished West Coast-based artists bring their version of California inspiration to the light-filled space in Melrose Hill until August 1.


    Before Sunrise 

    Tuesday, June 16, various times
    Frida Cinema
    305 E. 4th Street Ste. 100, Santa Ana
    COST: FROM $10; MORE INFO 

    A light-skinned man sits on steps outdoors while a light-skinned woman lies with her head in his lap.
    (
    Courtesy Warner Bros.
    )

    Happy Celine-meets-Jesse Day to all those who celebrate. It’s me, hi. The Frida Cinema in Santa Ana is screening the first in Richard Linklater’s trilogy — the 1995 opus Before Sunrise, starring Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke — three times on Tuesday. Honestly, if I lived closer to Santa Ana I’d probably be there all day and watch it three times.


    Hip-Hop Block Party

    Tuesday, June 16, 7:30 p.m. to 11 p.m. 
    Grammy Museum 
    800 W. Olympic Blvd., Downtown L.A. 
    COST: N/A; MORE INFO

    A Black man speaks onstage in front of a band.
    Schyler O’Neal speaks at last year's Hip-Hop Block Party
    (
    Randy Shropshire
    /
    Getty Images for the Grammy Museum
    )

    The massive hip-hop block party at the Grammy Museum is (officially) sold out, but keep an eye out for returns or a waitlist. This year’s celebration features an L.A. Drumline performance, panels on Black music and film criticism, a poetry open mic, comedy, trivia games and much more.


    Joyce Kwon

    Thursday, June 18, 7 p.m.
    Burbank Public Library (Buena Vista Branch)
    300 N. Buena Vista Street, Burbank
    COST: FREE; MORE INFO

    Black and white photo of a light-skinned woman looking at the camera.
    (
    Gianina Ferreyra
    )

    Singer, songwriter and gayageum player Joyce Kwon will perform with bandmate and baritone guitarist Brandon Bae in a free show at the Burbank Library. The program is “illuminated by narratives from books that inspired the performance.”

  • Feds seized 15 around SoFi this weekend
    A green soccer pitch sits empty as some people begin to fill the stadium seats.
    A view of L.A. Stadium before the FIFA World Cup match between USA and Paraguay begins.

    Topline:

    The FBI seized about 15 drones flying near SoFi Stadium and L.A. Memorial Coliseum on Friday and Saturday for violating temporary flight restrictions.

    Why it matters: "No Drone Zones" have been put in place by the Federal Aviation Administration on match days at World Cup stadiums and venues hosting official fan festivals.

    The restrictions: Drones are prohibited at SoFi within a three-nautical-mile radius and up to 3,000 feet above ground level. They are also banned at the Coliseum for the official fan festival within a one-nautical-mile radius and up to 1,000 feet above ground level.

    The FBI seized about 15 drones near SoFi Stadium and L.A. Memorial Coliseum on Friday and Saturday for violating temporary flight restrictions, Amir Ehsaei, special agent in charge of counterterrorism and crisis response at the FBI's Los Angeles Field Office, told LAist. Multiple operators were cited.

    Stadiums hosting World Cup games and official fan festival venues are designated as "No Drone Zones" by the Federal Aviation Administration on match days.

    “We have a zero-tolerance policy when it comes to drones violating the temporary flight restrictions," Ehsaei said.

    He said drone detection teams are deployed at all SoFi games. "We will be out at other places depending on the nature — the size, the scope — [and] different intelligence that we'll get based on  threat assessments."

    Drones are prohibited at SoFi within a three-nautical-mile radius and up to 3,000 feet above ground level. They are also banned at the Coliseum for the official fan festival within a one-nautical-mile radius and up to 1,000 feet above ground level.

    Violators could face fines of up to $100,000 and federal criminal charges.