Will Trump’s waning popularity pull down California Republicans? Today’s election offers a clue

California Democrats are targeting a handful of vulnerable GOP state legislators in hopes of flipping their seats blue.

What are their chances? Tuesday’s election results will offer an early clue.

Embattled Republicans from Sacramento to San Diego have drawn a crowded field of Democratic challengers. The primary, where the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party, will decide which Democrats will face off against those GOP incumbents in November.

Democrats in those competitive districts are banking on President Donald Trump’s waning popularity and the impact of his policies — chiefly high tariffs, immigration crackdowns and the war in Iran — to hurt Republicans. To fend off the challenges, GOP incumbents have tried to keep Trump’s name at a distance while appealing to their base of Trump loyalists.

In Riverside County, expect a rematch between Assemblymember Leticia Castillo, a Corona Republican, and Democratic Riverside City Councilmember Clarissa Cervantes, who lost two years ago by a razor-thin margin despite amassing a significant war chest. Tonight’s election will likely foreshadow the results in November, when the two will meet again for a final matchup.

In the Coachella Valley, three Democrats are vying to unseat GOP Assemblymember Jeff Gonzalez of Coachella, who has adopted a more moderate perspective on immigration than his fellow Republican colleagues. Similarly, in three other purple districts, from northern Sacramento County to Orange County, tonight’s election will test the Republicans’ popularity.

Democrats are also playing defense in Southern California: Sen. Catherine Blakespear, an Encinitas Democrat, faces Republican challenger Laura Bassett tonight in the toss-up district in San Diego County.

In some of California’s deepest blue corners, Democrats running for open seats are fighting each other to break through. In the coastal Southern California district that includes Malibu and Santa Monica, half a dozen Democrats are vying to succeed Sen. Ben Allen, who is running for insurance commissioner. In Los Angeles, a fierce five-way race has split some of the most powerful labor unions and Democratic groups to replace Democratic Assemblymember Mike Gipson, who will term out by the end of the year.

In San Diego, the race to replace GOP Sen. Brian Jones, who is also terming out, is a battle between two Republican factions that offers a glimpse into the future direction of the party: Will a moderate San Marcos city councilmember endorsed by Jones be more palatable than a far-right firebrand? We’ll find out.

This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.