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Gay Marriage Ban Losing Support, Poll Says

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A new poll conducted by the Public Policy Insititute of California has come out showing three state proposition on the November ballot as losing or nearly even in outcome. Prop 8, which seeks to eliminate gay marriage in California, is losing, according to the poll. However, when it comes to favoring gay couples marrying, people are still evenly split. From the document's findings:

Proposition 8, which would amend the state constitution to eliminate same-sex marriage, is favored by 40 percent and opposed by 54 percent of the state’s likely voters. Democratic (66%) and independent likely voters (59%) are against it, and Republican likely voters are in favor (60%). The last time voters decided this issue – in 2000 – they approved a ban on same-sex marriages by a wide margin (61% yes, 39% no). After the state Supreme Court ruled that ban unconstitutional, supporters of Proposition 8 qualified the initiative for the 2008 ballot. Opposition to Proposition 8 this year is not an indication of a dramatic shift in voters’ opinions. Asked whether they favor letting gay and lesbian couples marry, likely voters are evenly split (47% in favor, 47% opposed) and have been since August 2005. Also playing a role in the November outcome is how strongly voters feel about the issue. A majority of likely voters (57%) in favor of Proposition 8 say it is a very important issue to them, while less than half (44%) of those opposed to the measure consider it a very important issue.

Proposition 4, which would require 48 hours of parental notification for minors, is found to be nearly split among voters (a similar initiative failed in 2005) and Proposition 11, a redistricting measure (a similar initiative also failed in 2005), is also found to be divided among voters.

Photo by kiltbear via Flickr