U.S. Hopes May Hinge on Luck of Draw
Angel Magaña/LAist
Going into the tournament, the general consensus in soccer circles was that this was the easiest group into which the U.S. had ever been drawn. After a hard fought draw against England in its opening match on June 12th, the U.S. seemed on the verge of capitalizing on this luck. Algeria and Slovenia, however, proved the point that no team should be taken lightly at the World Cup and their respective results put the assumed order of group C in complete disarray.
The group now faces its third and final group match on June 23rd. By 9:00 AM on Wednesday, fans will know which two nations from group C will advance into the round of 16 and which two will be packing their bags and going home. A high degree of drama is certain to accompany the process. But how did things get to this point and what are the possible scenarios that would allow the U.S. to advance?
Prior to the tournament commencing, many believed England and the U.S. would take the group's two top spots and advance, but a surprising Slovenian side took control of the group by first beating Algeria and then earning a draw against the U.S. Despite currently being in the group's top spot, the Slovenians have not yet clinched a berth into the next round. Victories by the U.S. and England would oust them, but Slovenia has the advantage of being the only team in the group that controls their own fate. Slovenia would advance with a draw against England, regardless of other results.
Things are far more interesting for the U.S. The U.S. and England currently share the group's second slot and both are in need of a victory to advance. Algeria will be the Nats' final group C opponent on Wednesday and a victory over the North African side is a must. The standings are so tight, it is possible that both the U.S. and England could be eliminated and the last place Algeria advances in their place.
Let us take a look at the potential scenarios that might play out:
* Draw by U.S., win by England: England and Slovenia advance, U.S. and Algeria eliminated.
* Draw by U.S., loss by England: Slovenia and U.S. advance, England and Algeria eliminated.
* Loss by U.S., win by England: England and Slovenia advance, U.S. and Algeria eliminated.
* Loss by U.S., draw by England: Slovenia and Algeria advance, U.S. and England eliminated.
* Loss by U.S., loss by England: Slovenia and Algeria advance, U.S. and England eliminated.
* Win by U.S., draw by England: Slovenia and U.S. advance, England and Algeria eliminated.
* Win by U.S., loss by England: Slovenia and U.S. advance, England and Algeria eliminated.
* Win by U.S., win by England: U.S. and England advance, Slovenia and Algeria eliminated.
There is one final scenario requiring special attention: a draw by both the U.S. and England. Such a scenario would guarantee Slovenia moves on and that Algeria doesn't. However, it also has the potential of maintaining the current tie for the second qualifying spot between the U.S. and England. If the usual tie breakers of goal differentials and the like even out, the tie would be broken by the luck of the draw. FIFA would literally decide the winner by drawing a team from a hat (or equivalent). Let us hope it doesn't come to that.