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You know the saying, it goes something like this: "statistics speak for themselves." So when LA Weekly's Patrick Range McDonald got sick of hearing the Mayor and LAPD Chief William Bratton claim crime levels were down to 1956 levels year after year, he decided to do his own statistics gathering finding that no, Los Angeles is really not living in the 50s still. Here's some of what we learned:
- Currently, LA is down to 1961 levels of crime when looking at 2008 figures, the LAPD claims. The 1956 was what they were pushing for previous years. Wait, didn't crime go down from 2007 to 2008?
- In 1956, security guards weren't needed at every grocery store, school and shopping center.
- "Home Invasion Robbery" not a coined term yet. Nor was "Random Shooting Victim."
- Gangs used knives and chains in 1956.
- Basically, "crime existed on a fundamentally different level in 1956."
- The 1956 comparison figure is based on a conglomeration of Part I crimes--homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny and auto theft--of today and yesteryear. But it's not based on comparing homicide to homicide or auto theft to auto theft.
- Comparing numbers directly, there were double the number of killings per capita in 2007 than 1956. Same goes for robbery. However, rape, burglary and larcency have dropped--the former is credited due to a national trend and DNA technologies.
- LA's clearance rates--crimes cleared by arrest, not prosecution--and property-recovery rates are horrible when compared to 1956.
Despite all this, Bratton does not think much of statisticians and criminologists. For man who is known for great quotes, here's another one: “It’s common practice with statistics to go back and match it against the lowest point in time,” said Bratton during a 45-minute interview with L.A. Weekly. “The public gets it, the criminologists don’t. Once again, who in hell cares? Nobody’s listening to them anyway. I’m a practitioner. I get the job done. They can write from now to Doomsday; none of them are getting anything done. Most of them don’t even get out of their offices to see what the real world looks like. I live in the real world.”
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Year to year, crime in my neighborhood is WAY up - I've seen and heard of more muggings, armed robberies, car and home thefts, and plain old beatings than ever. My neighbors and I call the cops, and the response every time: "ya know, we're dealing with more important stuff than (your crime here)... we're outmanned and underfunded, so sorry if we couldn't handle your little problem"...
But here's the problem with tooting the "your problems aren't big enough" horn: you play that song enough, and the criminal element starts to believe it too.
Shorter Bratton: "Yea, who the hell cares about numbers? What have numbers done for you? Numbers don't live in the real world, like I do!"
I'm surprised he didn't point out we use Arabic numbers. What do they know about LA?
Rape is down? That's odd, considering most are never reported. You would think they would have reported even fewer in 1956.
Bratton is doing a fantastic job just as he's done at every place he's worked, Boston, New York. His methods and strategies at NY Transit are inspiring. He's Chief duties in NYC are just as impressive.
His organizational methods filter down to the people who live in the real world. As a community leader, I hear first-hand how LAPD has consistently responded to crimes in our neighborhoods quickly. He's doing more for LAPD than anyone in its history. Hope City can find a way to get him another term. Or let's vote on it. Bratton would have mine.
OMG Bratton is several orders of magnitude better than any chief the LAPD has seen in decades. Gates was a pig, Williams was a joke, and (unfortunately) Parks seemed to be largely ineffective at reform. Any issues I have with Bratton pale when compared to his predecessors.