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It seems the San Andreas fault has a habit of shaking us up pretty badly once every 137 years, and scientists from UC Irvine believe we are long overdue for the "Big One." The last "massive" earthquake to rumble along the infamous fault line was in 1857, "when one struck at an estimated magnitude of 7.9," according to an AP article in the Long Beach Press-Telegram. That means the next major quake is now 15 years behind schedule on the San Andreas; the 1994 Northridge Earthquake, whose 15-year-anniversary was last weekend, was a magnitude 6.7, however it was mainly centered on the Northridge (sometimes called Pico) Thrust, not the San Andreas. Several recent small earthquakes are serving as a reminder that here in Southern California we've built our cities on Mother Nature's turf, and the "Big One" could hit us at any moment--one very "Big" reason to focus on preparedness and safety.
Is the 'Big One' 15 Years Late and Counting?
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Begley is a raving nutball and he is dead wrong. StrokerMcgurk
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The problem i always have with these "we are due for one" type statements is that they force you to rely on the fact that the earth runs on a standard system. which it doesn't.
The next earthquake can happen in 200 years and as long as the one after happens in 74 years, then its still every 137 years.
I know this is obvious and almost stupid to comment on, but some people need to realize that although it is a possibility, in no way does the earth give a shit about time in between or regularity in any sense.
Two 8.0's could happen back to back one day after another. does that mean we have another 274+ years until the next one? no, another 8.0 could happen the next day.
No reason to not be prepared i guess.
I agree that the earth doesn't follow a calendar. But I do think that because it's been so very long since we--or anyone we know--here in Southern California have had to contend with an earthquake of that magnitude (i.e. 7.9+) that we have a bit of that "meh, it's not gonna happen" attitude. I think these UCI scientists are saying it has and will, and if by saying so it forces us to examine how our infrastructure is set up to deal with the aftermath, as well as our own personal preparedness, then I think it's important that, regardless of context (or how you calculate averages) we talk about its inevitability.
And maybe the earth does run on a standard system. Our sunrises and sunsets do, as do the patterns of planets' movements. Maybe we just haven't been around long enough to crack this code.
So they don't run like Metro cars is what you are saying?
Of course this is true, what the scientists are trying to do, in a typical scientific yet conscionable way, is to try to prepare us for the inevitable. I personally hate looking around at friends and wondering who among them will not be around after the next big one, (or contemplate my own demise) but it is indeed going to happen. I can hope that it does not happen in my lifetime, but that does nothing to prevent death and destruction to my children and their friends.
All U.S. cities are ill prepared for earth's movements and correcting this shortcoming is too expensive to contemplate...though it should not be. This is always the way it goes though. Cities aren't moved; they are rebuilt in a locations that will not crumble beneath them.
The U.S. is too young to have experienced all the "bad" locations to build settlements in, but Europe has been there and done that...with few exceptions.
just what i wanna hear on sunday morning! we're all gonna dieeeeeeeee!