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October 6, 2008
Obviously Obama Will Win CA, but Why?
The blog FiveThirtyEight (as in the number of electoral votes) has been going state by state doing electoral projections. Today was California: "Coastally Urban and Maverickily Liberal, California is one of only four majority-minority states (TX, HI, NM) in the nation. It’s a guaranteed 55 electoral votes for Barack Obama, as it has been for every Democrat since 1992. It has the smallest percentage of rural voters in America. Ironically, it's a state both candidates have visited far out of proportion to the closeness of the race, because both sides need wealthy donors who populate the state. Over ten percent of the Five hundred Thirty Eight electoral votes in play in a presidential election are represented by California." The analysis goes on to each of the candidates individually.
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Some fun facts:
http://www.270towin.com/quiz.php
Even though it has 55 electoral votes, California is the most under-represented state in the electoral college. With 12% of the U.S. now residing there, California would have about 65 electoral votes if it was just based on population.
Article I of The Constitution mandates a Census every 10 years --- the next one will be in 2010. Census results have tremendous implications across government, including how Congressional Representatives are allocated across the states. Since each state has Electoral Votes equal to their Representatives (plus 2 for their Senators), the Electoral Map will change for 2012.