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Among the gay marriage, transportation and abortions wars that we're all going to become subject to this election season, there's another heated prop that's a little more dry due to its political nature. If passed, Prop 11 will allow the redrawing of state district boundaries overseen by an independent commission after the 2010 census. Currently, state politicians create their own boundaries, something many are comfortable with.
Supporters say it will help minorities get better representation and detractors say it will hurt minorities. And both of those sides have unlikely groups fighting for what they think is right. Gov. Schwarzenegger, Steve Westly (a Democrat who tried to run against the Gov.), the ACLU and many others support the prop. The Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund and many California Democratic Party members are opposed. A recent Field Poll survey (.pdf) showed the prop passing.
Three years ago, voters turned down a similar prop.
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Propositions that begin with less than majority support rarely win on Election Day. The Field poll showed Prop 11 with 42 yes, 30 no, and 28 undecided -- which would point to a win if the undecided broke evenly, as they often do between competing candidates. But propositions are different. Voters who go into the booth undecided are far more likely to vote against a proposition, than for it. So I'd say Prop 11 is in serious trouble.